NASA Image of the Day - MODIS Image of Tropical Cyclone Edzani
From NASA:
As of January 11, 2010, Tropical Cyclone Edzani had weakened considerably, with maximum sustained winds of 45 knots (85 kilometers per hour) and gusts up to 55 knots (100 kilometers per hour). The U.S. Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Center reported that the storm was roughly 970 nautical miles (1,800 kilometers) east-southeast of La Réunion and was moving slowly toward the south-southeast.
The MODIS on NASA’s Terra satellite captured this image of Edzani over the open ocean at 10:55 a.m. Calcutta time (5:25 UTC) on January 9, 2010. Hovering over the South Indian Ocean, Edzani spans hundreds of kilometers.
Visit the page to see higher resolutions (top right).
Cyclone Watches and Warnings have been issued for parts of northwestern Australia late Wednesday, WST, as Tropical Cyclone Magda continues to show signs of development. TC Magda is approximately 245miles (454km) north-northwest of Cockatoo Island, moving south-southeast around .
The Tropical Cyclone Warning Center in Perth says the cyclone has a significant chance of becomeing a Severe Tropical Cyclone as it approaches the Kimberley coast this weekend. Forecasted wind speeds are expected near 85kts (98mph or 157kph). A Severe Tropical Cyclone is that of a category three or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.
Current details of the TC Magda (as of 13:11 – 1:11 PM – UTC, Jan 20, 2010) :
- located at 12.5°S, 122.2°E;
- winds at 30kts (35mph or 56kph);
- wind gusts near 45kts (52mph or 83kph);
- pressure 998mb (29.47in);
Tropical Cyclone Magda - MTSAT IR - Jan 20, 2010 11:30Z
TC Magda is approximately 137miles (254km).
Perth reports the cyclone is showing banding features in recent satellite imagery. In addition, the cyclone is in a low shear environment with warm waters in excess of 30°C (86°F). Both conditions are ideal for rapid intensification.
Computer forecast models are having issues with a complex steering flow leading to a larger degree of uncertainty. Some models call for the cyclone to not strengthen as much while traveling more easterly towards the northern Kimberly coast. Currently, the official forecast takes the cyclone near Kuri Bay late Friday night.
Very Intense Tropical Cyclone Edzani has continued strengthening despite recent forecasts that weakening would commence by this time.
Edzani’s current details:
- winds of 120kts (138mph or 222kph) – category four;
- Dvorak estimates have increased (of course) to 6.5. Eight is the highest possible Dvorak number;
- barometric pressure has also dropped from yesterday’s 923mb (27.26in) to 905mb (26.72in);
How big is Cyclone Edzani?
Intense Tropical Cyclone Edzani has undergone tremendous rapid intensification throughout the day but has slowed over the past several hours.
Edzani’s current details:
- 15.2° S; 78.3° E;
- approximately 675 miles southeast of Diego Garcia;
- moving west-southwest at 7kts (8mph or 13kph);
- winds are 105kts (121mph or 194kph);
- pressure 923mb (27.26in);
Dvorak estimates are as much as 6.0 according to the latest advisory from RSMC La Reunion. See Intense Tropical Cyclone Edzani’s forecast…
Tudor Vieru, Science Editor for Softpedia.com, wrote today of a series of studies that relates emotionally disturbed children in southeast Louisiana to Hurricane Katrina.
Post-traumatic stress disorder (which the article doesn’t cite directly but it is what it is) is often associated with war victims and soldiers. PTSD became a recognizably serious situation after the first Gulf War and since then the military has taken great steps in diagnosing and treating PTSD.
But, people don’t often associate PTSD with natural disaster victims. I remember hearing of one young man who survived Hurricane Andrew. Years later, the memories drove him to suicide. He’s not the only one. Continue reading…
The National Hurricane Center will begin issuing watches and warnings an additional 12 hours in advance.
Previously, tropical storm and hurricane watches were issued 36 in advance of tropical storm or hurricane conditions. Beginning May 15, the start of the East Pacific hurricane season, those watch advisories will be posted 48 hours in advance of storm or hurricane conditions.
Also, tropical storm and hurricane warnings will now be issued no earlier than 36 hours prior to storm or hurricane conditions. Previously, the requirement was for 24 hours notice.
This will be of benefit particularly for government agencies who, by most laws, cannot act as necessary until watches or warnings are issued. I don’t think it will affect civilians as much because of simple human nature; they won’t react until they feel absolutely necessary. Allowing additional time for advisories to be issued won’t make much of a difference.
This could also hurt traditional forecast lead times as well. The NHC always mentions lead times in storm preliminary reports as a way of measuring the success of a forecast by when conditions were felt in relation to when advisories were posted. The longer the forecast period, the greater the inaccuracy. And it’s easy to see occasions where a storm system may make landfall outside of the inital danger regions.
For instance, consider Hurricane Humberto, 2007. The system quickly ramped up to a category one hurricane within 16 hours before making landfall. Though tropical storm warnings were issued immediately on the first advisory, a hurricane warning wasn’t issued until two hours prior to landfall. By that account alone, the warning system failed completely.
This is by no means attacking the new policy or the NHC or anything like that. But, it must be realized that people in the path of storms know they are in the path (ever try to watch any news station when a hurricane is 1,000 miles away and not see even a mention of it???). They know a storm is out there.
Instead, focus should be made on such issues as mandatory evacuations or lawful imprisonment (such as took place in Texas last year) for failure to evacuate. Hard lines will need to be taken to save lives. Not prolonged watches and warnings.
Take what you can get, I suppose.
Typhoon Nida is a minimal typhoon located about 200 miles south of Guam. Nida is currently moving towards the northeast around 10 knots.
Nida is not expected to be a significant threat to land throughout the next five days.
There is some question on the overall forecast as increasing wind shear and a possible cold surge from the north can weaken the system further than forecast. If that is the case, Nida may turn towards the west and, perhaps, the southwest as forecast by several computer models.
Ultimately, this will depend on if Nida becomes a low-to-mid-level circulation later in the forecast period or if the system can still maintain some depth despite the conditions. The official forecast calls for the latter scenario and a continuous push towards the northwest over the five-day period. Continue reading…
QuikSCAT is no longer in operation, according to NASA. The satellite’s scatterometer antenna stopped spinning. If the antenna cannot be restarted it will no longer be capable of taking sea surface measurements as it had been in the past.
I wrote back in early October of the debate inside the weather community on the significance of QuikSCAT and a replacement and how the debate was causing significant delay in building a replacement.
Well, those same people that helped cause the delays in some sense are continuing to preach the urgency of a replacement.
You have no one to blame but yourselves.
It’s unclear the true effects the loss of QuikSCAT will have on tropical cyclone forecasting. But, one thing is sure: you can never have too many weapons in your arsenal.
NASA will continue to try and restart the antenna using various techniques. Considering the satellite was only supposed to last a few years but has been operational for 10, I suppose we should be thankful we got out of it what we could.
First, my apologies for not writing for quite a while. I’ve been working on a preliminary report for Ida. But, other than that, other things have taken precedence. I hope to have the Ida report soon but with the holidays this week, who knows?
I wanted to write today about several cyclones running the globe. I started with one developing in the South China Sea. Unfortunately, again, things have come up I’m unable to write in detail about the other system. However, I will have those write-ups tomorrow. Please, stay tuned.
An area designated Invest 96W is getting better organized. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) for this area of disturbance located in the southern South China Sea. A TCFA means a tropical cyclone is likely to develop within the next 24 hours. The JTWC lists the chances of development as good – the highest possible.
The system is about 310miles (574km) northeast (47°) of Singapore moving north-northeast.
Continue reading…
After writing pretty much every morning for the past few months, I decided to take a little break. It helps there are no tropical systems running the Earth (well, except Tropical Cyclone Phyan which struck India’s Arabian coast just south of Mumbai, Maharashtra this morning).
As long as there are no active cyclones posts will come about once every other day or so. This will give me time to work on other articles and work on the new map I’ve had planned seemingly forever.
One of the first articles I’ll ahve coming up is a preliminary report on Ida. There isn’t much to write about. I want to go back and analyze the NHC’s forecast (track and intensity) and try to get my hands on some model runs and see how they performed.
Have you seen Ida, lately? The storm is a beast in the extratropical sense that will likely become a noreaster and bring some serious moisture to the northeast. There are storm warnings, gale warnings, coastal flood warnings, high surf advisories; you name it, it’s posted from the Carolinas northward.
Anyway, that’s the plan. I also have those write-ups on the metropolitan cities I wanted to get up on the site. I started with Brownsville and haven’t touched it in at least a month. So, hopefully now I’ll have time to wrap that up and move onto Corpus Christi. Stay tuned.
