Hurricane Earl made it’s closest approach to North Carolina just a couple of hours ago coming within 80 miles of Cape Hatteras, NC. Earl had made a decent turn east of north yesterday but turned more northerly overnight bringing the hurricane closer to the Outer Banks, though within the forecast track. Now, Massachusetts residents are urged to finalize preparations before the arrival of Hurricane Earl tonight.
Hurricane Earl Current Conditions
Hurricane Earl battling wind shear as the ragged cyclone passes east of Cape Hatteras, NC
As of 6:30 AM EDT, there are no reports of wind damage, significant storm surge, tornadoes or fatalities. Radar estimates show most of far eastern North Carolina and some parts of north central North Carolina have received up to 3-inches of rain while areas offshore have received as much as 6-inches.
Hurricane Earl was downgraded to a category three hurricane late yesterday morning. An eyewall replacement cycle weakened the hurricane further to a a minimum category three before settling with current winds of 91kts (105mph or 169kph). Pressure had also risen from 928mb (27.40in) to 955mb (28.20in).
Hurricane Earl continues moving north-northeast at 16kts (18mph or 29kph) and is expected to move even faster in about 12 hours.
A buoy just off the Outer Banks reported waves as high as 28 feet. Winds peaked at 47kts (54mph or 87kph) in the 2PM EDT hour.
Buoy 41025 near Diamond Shoals (Cape Hatteras, NC) show the passage of Hurricane Earl's eye approximately 70 miles to the ESE. The buoy reported peak winds of 47kts (~55mph) and a low pressure of 29.07IN
Hurricane Earl Forecast Track
The NOGAPS which had been calling consistently for landfall in North Carolina and Massachusetts has now shifted eastward slightly – enough to keep the center offshore but still deliver a blow. The GFS has also shifted eastward. However, the rather accurate UKMET takes Hurricane Earl inland into Massachusetts.
Hurricane Earl is forecast to pass approximately 30 miles from Nantucket, MA overnight Friday/Saturday
The official forecast from the NHC is for Hurricane Earl to pass within 30 miles of Nantucket Island, Massachusetts as a category one hurricane with winds of 85kts (98mph or 157kph). Should this track hold true, the broad wind field of Hurricane Earl will most likely deliver hurricane conditions to parts of Massachusetts.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to start hammering Nantucket around 5PM EDT. Hurricane force winds are forecast to come ashore by 11PM EDT and last for a couple of hours. Peak winds are forecast at minimum hurricane-force. Winds are forecast to subside by sunrise. Hyannis and Marthas Vineyard, Massachusetts are expected to see peak winds of moderate tropical storm strength.
Hurricane Earl will continue moving northeast towards Nova Scotia where it is expected to weaken to a tropical storm at landfall late tomorrow morning.
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