Hurricane Ike will be moving over the first large area of extremely warm ocean water this afternoon and with the current organization of the hurricane it is highly likely this system will be a category three hurricane tonight. The National Hurricane Center as of the 4AM CDT advisory this morning only forecasts Ike to be a strong category two, weak category three hurricane tomorrow morning. Keep in mind intensity forecasts are very difficult to predict.
Key West, Florida long range radar shows a very tight circulation but does not indicate strong convective bands around the center for the time being. However, the center of Ike is becoming better defined and more symmetrical as Ike looks more and more like a classic hurricane. According to the hurricane heat potential map which can be displayed on Hurricane Ike’s tracking map, Ike should be entering the warmer pocket of water late this afternoon. There is no reason Ike should not take full advantage of the situation as upper-level winds are favorable to produce outflow. In addition, outflow is fair in the west and good in other quadrants.
Hurricane Ike is also a beast in the ROCI (Radius of Outermost Closed Isobar) well over 200 miles from the center. Though I cannot find confirmed surface observations, it is likely tropical storm force winds are still being felt as far south as Isle of Youth, Cuba. Hurricane-force winds are confined to the northern quadrant up to 30 miles from the center. I strongly suspect these winds will wrap around the center throughout the day and I wouldn’t be surprised if today’s recon notes development of at least an open eyewall perhaps closing off as early as tonight.
Hurricane Ike also has a very well-defined, classica comma-shaped CDO (central dense overcast).
It’s still quite obvious the timing of this turn can mean huge differences in final landfall. A delay of an hour or two in the westward turn can mean a difference of dozens of miles in the final landfall point. Even worse, a faster turn to the northwest prior to landfall and lead to a difference of 50-60 miles per hour difference. Though I don’t think the Galveston/Houston area is on the hook, I don’t think they’re off, either. Any slight changes in the direction of Hurricane Ike will significantly alter evacuation plans today anywhere from Corpus Christi to Galveston. And regardless, this storm is huge. A landfall in the Port Lavaca area is likely to bring strong tropical storm force winds to both Corpus Christi and Houston and hurricane force winds as far inland as Victoria. I expect today hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings will be issued for the Gulf Coast likely from Laguna Madre (just south of Corpus Christi) all the way north to High Island (just north of Galveston). I feel with the size and uncertainty of the storm, there is no reason to take a chance.
The HWRF, NOAA’s baby, is calling for a 928mb hurricane (strong category four/weak category five) to make landfall early Saturday morning around 7AM CDT just north of Corpus Christi in Port Aransas/Aransas Pass. The GFS and GFDL fall in line with track.
GFDL - 100 Sep 2008 - 06Z - 78 Hours
GFS - 10 Sep 2008 - 06Z - 72 Hours
The European (ECMWF) goes further noth between Port Lavaca and Freeport, Texas:
ECMWF - 10 Sep 2008 - 00Z - Panel
The Candian (CMC) does concern me quite a bit. I have not followed this model much for Ike but have noticed the past few runs have consistently turned the storm north into the southeast Texas area near Galveston. I cannot speak for how well it has handled Ike in the past, but one cannot help but take note when a model, usually considered reliable, wants to make a point and stick with it:
CMC - 10 Sep 2008 - 00Z - 72HRS
