There are two forecast models I want to point out real quick that make it even clear we still don’t have a definitive idea of where Hurricane Ike will make a final landfall. The HWRF has shifted south after an earlier run indicating a landfall north of Port Lavaca. The HWRF computer forecast model now takes a 916mb category five hurricane right into Corpus Christi. For the city, that is an absolute worst-case scenario and this situation would debilitate the city for years. For those not familiar with the city, keep reading and I’ll outline key points of interest.
The GFDL has taken a major shift north just to the south of Galveston with a 946mb strong category three. This, itself is a worst-case scenario for the Houston/Galveston area. I will also try to inform you a little on the key points of interest in this situation as well.
HWRF - 10 Sep 2008 - 18Z - 60 Hours
GFDL - 10 Sep 2008 - 18Z - 54 Hours
First, let me stress neither of these computer models is guaranteed to be right. However, it is significant to note the hurricane has tended slightly north of the National Hurricane Center’s forecast for several hours. I alluded to this earlier today in a post that timing situations such as these are absolutely critical and can have huge impacts on final landfall. And we are seeing that reflected with each new forecast advisory that comes out from the National Hurricane Center.
I was in shock that the National Hurricane Center on Monday night had Hurricane Ike forecasted to make landfall near the Freeport/Port Lavaca area. I remember remarking to friends that the NHC had done a very good job with the forecast of Hurricane Gustav track-wise and that I liked their forecast Monday and felt it was a strong reliable forecast. Then, the NHC came out three hours later and shifted the track just south of Corpus. Early Tuesday morning, the track shifted even further south into Kennedy County/Laguna Madre — Hurricane Bret’s deathbed. I was shocked because the model runs were just shifting and it was unusual for the NHC to make such a drastic change after a short period of time. In fact, there used to be a time not too long ago the NHC would wait for a while before making such a drastic change. Given the storm was still 4-5 days away from landfall, I did not see the need for such a shift. But, gradually, they’ve come back to where we were Monday night.
But, it goes to show the uncertainty with this situation. There are too many players at hand. It’s not that Ike has defied any odds or been an unusual storm. Rather, Ike has been at the mercy of other players that were unpredictable too far into the future. When Ike first developed, it appeared this would be a southeast US hit on the heels of Hurricane Hanna. But Ike took it’s time, missed the pickup, and here we are; back in the same situation, only about 1,000 miles further west. We know the high pressure ridge steering Ike towards the west-northwest won’t last much longer. A trough will come in from the east (currently over the northwest US) and pick Ike up. But, when? If you ask the GFDL, it’ll be Saturday after the storm has made landfall. But the trough will be strong enough to prevent the high from building any further west thus Ike’s forecasted west-northwest movement into southeast Texas. If you ask the HWRF, the trough will pick up Ike, but not until it is well inland and after the high has steered the hurricane more on a westerly direction.
So, here we are: 48 hours or so from landfall and not a clue to hedge a bet on. Indications to me are that the high is not building in as fast as some of the forecast models indicate which is why I’ve stuck with a Port Lavaca landfall. And as each hour grows, so does my concern. I live in west Houston. The current forecast from the National Hurricane Center brings the storm as a strong category two hurricane 50 miles to my south and then west. I can see this hurricane coming further north. Freeport? Jamaica Beach? Galveston? None of those locations are more than 100 miles away. South? Southeast? East? And therein lies the dillema that faces Houston/Galveston tonight!
Tomorrow morning our highways will be filled with wondering people heading to work and wondering people leaving Brazoria and Calhoun County. Where are they going? And will we be following? The analogy on local stations is Hurricane Rita. Nearly three years ago this city exercised this drill. Only to see a category three, once a strong category five, hurricane make landfall near Port Arthur/Beaumont. That time, Houston was in the crosshairs. And 4-million people flooded four major highways heading from west to north. Over 100 people died in their cars. Most memorable, a bus fire in Dallas that killed all aboard. “The Katrina Effect”, I like to call it. New Orleans was fresh in the nightmares of many of Rita’s evacuees who had chosen for whatever reason to not do the same three weeks earlier. With nowhere to go but floodwaters in their living rooms, they came here. And Houston along with New Orleans fled a major hurricane that, this time, missed. Barely.
Now, Houston is on the outside looking in; or in this case, down. They said Rita would hit Houston before it turned north. Now they tell us Ike will hit Port Lavaca. Will it turn north? Will it be too late? Can you evacuate 4 million people 36 hours before a potentially catastrophic hurricane finally breaks the finish line? I say 36 hours, but in reality it’s 24 hours. Feeder bands and tropical storm force winds are highly likely to start coming ashore early Friday morning and the drops of spent tropical energy will fall on our windshields as we flee. Would it for real this time?
(to be continued)
