Yesterday, the European wanted to drive a very potent Hurricane Gustav into southeast Texas near Galveston. Last night, that model shifted to the east, bring a still powerful Hurricane Gustav into the New Orleans area. The latest run is now midway between the two points and has landfall sometime Monday night. The European, considered quite reliable, is just one example of the complexity of Gustav’s forecast.
With credit to the National Hurricane Center, they have been rather consistent with their forecasts other than a recent shift in a northward motion in five days to a westward motion back to a northward motion. But they have continued to keep the landfall along the same area roughly between New Iberia, Houma and New Orleans. This could likely be considered by some as the NHC’s strongest feeling of a final landfall. Rather, it’s just a midway point between vastly various computer forecast models.
The UKMET, for instance, a model that has done rather well with Gustav, has slowly moved from forecasting a Louisiana landfall, to southeast Texas, to aiming towards Tampico, Mexico; quite significant changes.
The GFS and GFDL, both of which seem to have grasped onto Gustav poorly from the get-go, are calling for a direct nortwestward motion into Louisiana and into the southern plains. Given that it is highly likely a building high across the Ohio Valley will block such northward movement, it seems logical these two forecast models would have to be discounted. Why wouldn’t they?
The NFGDL and NOGAPS both call for a gradual turn towards the west in the north central Gulf with landfall points at Galveston Bay and Rockport, Texas, respectively.
The HWRF calls for a landfall through the Mississippi Delta, yet a westward turn on the west side of New Orleans. Such a forecasted track is without a doubt a worst-case scenario for the still-recovering city. As long as this type of forecast is considered a possibility, there will be little sleep in southeast Louisiana this weekend.
All of these models continue to reveal strongly that the only certainty with Gustav is the lack thereof. Well, that and the strong likelihood Gustav will not only reach hurricane status today, but is highly likely to be a category three hurricane by this time tomorrow. No forecaster would even rule out the likelihood of a category four or five hurricane as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico.
This, of course, does not mean in any circumstance Gustav will make landfall as a category four or five hurricane. In fact, with increasing shear and potentially forward movement, as well as “cooler” waters in the Gulf of Mexico, Gustav is likely to be no stronger than a category three; a major hurricane nonetheless.
My personal belief is Gustav will make a westward turn towards the southeast Texas coast before final landfall, which is likely to be between Port Lavaca and Sabine. Of course, I am not a meteorlogist; just a hobbyist with a passion. But with the shift with many of the computer models, it is hard to ignore the threat lies stronger elsewhere. Of course, after NOAA’s Gulfstream IV jet samples the air in the Gulf and the data is input into the forecast models, they could certainly shift back towards Louisiana and come into much better agreement. Needless to say, after such runs are published, the NHC should have a much better feeling of where the likely target is.
