Remember the movie Crocodile Dundee – in either the original or the thousand sequels, he’s in a bar and some guy pulls out a little six-inch knife. Dundee gets a smirk on his face and replies, “That’s not a knife.” He pulls out his machete-like blade and continues, “This is a knife.” I think of that line everytime I see a hurricane like Bill (replace “knife” with “hurricane”). Two days ago, Hurricane Bill was a decent-looking storm. Not impressive, really. But, being the only game in town, fun to watch. This is a hurricane:
Hurricane Bill Rainbow Infrared - Aug 19, 2009 courtesy NHC
Hurricane Bill is absolutely amazing to look at. The storm has great symmetry with cold cloud tops on all sides – I don’t see holes in the central dense overcast (CDO) like I did yesterday. Look at the outflow in that picture, also. Especially on the western side of the hurricane where it looks like fingers are poking out from the hurricane. And the well-rounded eye is quite distinguishable. Yes, I do believe THAT is a hurricane.
Bill has taken more advantage of slightly warmer waters than I thought the storm would. Though, there hasn’t been the official “rapid deepening” phase some were suggesting could happen, Bill undoubtedly went through some fast intensification; a pressure drop of 14mb in 12 hours and a wind increase of 20kts, respectively. Currently, the eye is 30 miles wide which is not too bad for a hurricane of this magnitude. I would imagine that sometime today, however, Bill likely will go through another eyewall replacement cycle as the current eye will likely collapse a bit under the pressure. Should that occur, Bill will lose some intensity, though not much. Other than that, the National Hurricane Center’s latest official forecast brings Bill to near-category five status with winds of 150mph.
The NHC says computer models are still trying to pick where and how sharp Bill will turn north. We’ve already seen the forward bearing increase from the 285 it was 24 hours ago to between 295-300 this morning. So, we know Bill is getting close to the edge of the high pressure ridge that had been steering it. What makes this forecast difficult is not knowing specifically where the “atmospheric gulley”, as I like to call it, is located. Imagine a creek running through mountains. Hurricanes take the path of least resistance – the creek, the path of least resistance located between the mid-Atlantic trough and Bermuda. The questions are: does the creek make a sharp turn north near or over Bermuda? Or, is it a broader turn that keeps the storm at bay from both Bermuda and the mid-Atlantic. Thereafter, where does the creek go, as some computer models are bringing a hurricane very close to New England late Sunday into Monday. The NHC’s forecast takes the hurricane very near New Foundland as a category one hurricane. Again, watch the Bill’s bearing.
Hurricane Bill Forecast #16 courtesty NRL Monterey
