Hurricane Dean spared Jamaica a full-on landfall earlier today but still brought torrential rainfalls of at least ten inches. Amateur radio operators on the island were reporting street flooding and winds as high as 100 miles per hour as the storm passed by. As of now, there were no reports of deaths on the island.
Hurricane Dean continues to move westward near 20 mph around the southern edge of a dominant high pressure ridge. The ridge, forecast models are showing, is expected to keep Dean on this westward track throughout the Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico. Landfall positions forecast by the National Hurricane Center remains south of Cozumel on the Yucatan Peninsula, and south of Tampico on the mainland of Mexico. Throughout the day, the computer forecast models have shifted south on each run, effectively ruling out any direct impact on the United States other than perhaps some rainbands that may hit extreme southern Texas.
Earlier in the day, hurricane reconnaissance reported concentric eyewalls in Dean. This was verified by SSMI Satellite imagery. However, on the last vortex fix by the reconnaissance, around 9PM CDT, Dean had once again held one eyewall about 16 miles in diameter.
SSMI Satellite Data - Hurricane Dean - Courtesy of NRL Monterrey
Hurricane Dean quite possibly can reach Category 5 status
With a single eyewall tightly compacted, as well as excellent outflow on all sides of the hurricane and moving over very warm ocean water, Hurricane Dean can quite conceivably reach Category 5 status as early as Monday afternoon. Hurricane Dean is beginning to move through waters as warm as 30ºc or 86ºF. The Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential in the waters through Dean’s forecasted track through the Caribbean are as much as 90 kJ/cm². TCHP in this range has been associated with many cases of hurricanes undergoing rapid intensification. It is quite possible given the seemingly perfect atmospheric and oceanic conditions Hurricane Dean could become one of the strongest hurricanes to ever develop in the Atlantic Basin. Those it could rival are Hurricane Gilbert (1988, winds as high as 185 mph and pressure as low as 888 mb) and Hurricane Mitch (1998, winds as high as 180 mph and pressure as low as 905 mb). However, Dean has essentially 36 hours to achieve this. One more eyewall replacement cycle will prevent any more considerably intensification.
Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential - Hurricane Dean - Courtesy of AOML
This is video obtained from NASA as the Space Shuttle Endeavour passed over Hurricane Dean as it entered the Caribbean Sea.
Video from the Space Shuttle Endeavour of Hurricane Dean as it entered the Caribbean Sea (Windows Media Player)
Video of Hurricane Dean from the Space Shuttle Endeavour as it entered the Caribbean Sea – Courtesy of NASA (Real Player)
