How’s that for a doomsday forecast! I’m in a jovial mood – this will still be brief. Hurricane Tropical Storm Danny appears to be moving on more of a northward course over the last several hours. It could be the center trying to relocate itself under the heavier convection. But, I doubt it. Convection is waning this evening. Danny is really struggling to get it’s act together and time is running out before upper-level conditions worsen and, potentially, rip Danny apart.
A large part of Danny’s issues are dry air in the surrounding environment and strong westerly shear limiting convection. Although, reconnaissance did find stronger winds in the southern quadrant, per the NHC. The convection has really been on a weakening trend the last several hours. Lately, there have been some bursts of convection and flare-ups in the northeastern quadrant. We’ll have to wait and see if those sustain throughout the night. Don’t be surprised if, yet again, Danny tries to relocate the center under the convection. In young tropical storms, these bursts you see on the satellite imagery creates updrafts that draw in air from the ocean surface. As you can possibly imagine, the air begins to get drawn up into the convection creating the closed surface circulation. If there’s no convection where the existing center is located, it is extremely difficult for the storm to sustain itself. Either another surface circulation will develop beneath the heavier convection or the original center will dissipate due to loss of energy and a wave axis will develop – or attempt to – beneath the circulation.
Does this mean Danny could be downgraded? Honestly, I would not be surprised at all. If the convection can rebuild then Danny will be in a temporary environment favorable enough to support convective redevelopment. However, if the convection continues to wax and wane as it has done so far, time will be lost and Danny will move into an environment where it just is not likely there would be additional development.
The National Huricane Center in their last advisory has kept Danny at tropical storm intensity throughout it’s life – though bringing it close to hurricane status late Saturday. Though it cannot be officially ruled out at this point, Danny loses odds the longer it continues to struggle. Late tomorrow night the environment will grow hostile over Danny. That and a quick north/northeast motion will make it nearly impossible for any further strenghtening.
In other words, Danny better get its act together now.
