You Dodger fans like that title, huh? Like Manny, Danny just doesn’t want to do what it’s thought he would do. Rather the storm wants to do what IT wants to do. Ok, we’ll go for the ride, right? After all, we love disaster shows (I wonder if we’ll have a storm named Terrell). Danny’s time is limited and even the National Hurricane Center is not nearly as optimistic as twelve hours ago. Danny is being battered – so there are legitimate excuses. But, the system is on the verge of being downgraded. The possibility exists Danny could even break into a wave soon.
Tropical Storm Danny
Convection has still been waxing and waning overnight. Over the last few hours there had been a burst near the storm center but that is now fading, also. Danny is under 10-20kt upper-level shear right now and is also fighting mid-level dry air that has just been suffocating the storm. Danny still has a small window that should open up allowing some strengthening beginning later today. Yet, that will close tomorrow and the storm will again face battering wind shear. The current forecast may still be too generous.
Tropical Storm Danny Shear/Water Vapor Imagery courtesy CIMSS
The NHC is forecasting Danny to continue moving northward and gradually north-northeast as the system gets swept up by a large trough coming off the US. Danny will increase forward movement and race off into the Atlantic, as did Bill. However, the strongest the system gets is 50mph winds as it passes the North Carolina Outer Banks.
Tropical Storm Danny Latest Forecast
Invest 94L (soon to be Ericka)
I am truly surprised this was not updated as of the 5AM advisory but I expect it too, soon. This system could even skip the “depression” status and go straight to Tropical Storm Ericka. A recent QuickSCAT pass shows northerly and westerly winds on the western quadrant of the system. The pass could not reveal the eastern quadrant. However, ship DNCQ reported 20kt southerly winds within 100 miles of the wave axis.
Invest 94L QuickSCAT/Ship Obs - 28 Aug, 2009. Credit: CIMSS
Invest 94L does have a low-level circulation as depicted by some imagery, according to the National Hurricane Center. There is upper-level diffluence in the southern portion of the system which would help outflow and aid development. In addition, water vapor imagery shows some decent atmospheric moisture in the surrounding area. Furthermore, unlike Danny, Invest 94L is under an anti-cyclone that will further enhance development. I would expect very soon this system to be upgraded, at least to depression status.
Invest 94L IR Imagery/Shear - Aug 28, 2009. Credit: CIMSS
I don’t have time to report on the East Pacific disturbances (Ignacio’s gone) but I will get something up this afternoon around lunch time.
