Danny Dead, Jimena Alive, and two other likely storms

Danny is now a tropical depression and will be absorbed into a mid-Atlantic trough today.  The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Danny.  Meanwhile, Invest 94L is lingering in a favorable environment and should become a depression soon.  In the East Pacific, Tropical Depression Thirteen-E developed last night and was upgraded to Tropical Storm Jimena this morning.  And following in that storm’s footsteps is Invest 95E which will likely become a tropical depression today.

Atlantic

Tropical Depression Danny

Tropical Depression Danny was downgraded this morning and the last advisory has been issued.  This after hurricane reconnaissance observations strongly indicated Danny was being absorbed into a mid-Atlantic front.  Danny had been battling dry air and upper-level shear while the center of the system could not really keep convection above nor keep convection consistently.  Surrounding conditions, however, have finally put an end to Danny’s misery.  Danny’s remants are being absorbed into a developing extratropical low over the mid-Atlantic.  This low is expected to race north-northeastward across New England.  The combined systems are still expected to produce some heavy surf and dangerous rip tides.  Beachgoers along the northeast US coast should listen to local emergency officials when it comes to entering oceanic waters.  As of yesterday afternoon, North Carolina Coast Guard officials were searching with beach rescuers for a 12-year-old boy who was boogie boarding off the Outer Banks in Corolla, NC and disappeared.  The board was washed ashore shortly after his mother noticed the kid missing.

Invests 94L

This wave has an estimated pressure of 1010mb, low enough for a tropical cyclone.  However, convection is currently disorganized though the wave is beneath and upper-level anticyclone.  There are areas of dry are in the mid-levels to the north that could be hampering development.  However, there is no reason for convection not to build near the wave axis and close off a surface circulation thus becoming Tropical Depression Six – perhaps, Tropical Storm Erika. The only question is when.  The NHC gives Invest 94L a 30-50% chance of development within the next 48 hours.

Many computer models trying to develop this system insist on taking the storm north of the Lesser Antilles.  However, as the storm delays development it is more likely the system will continue on more of a westerly motion and a west-northwest motion and, quite possibly move into the Caribbean through the southern Lesser Antilles.  The SHIPS intensity forecast model calls for the system to develop into a major hurricane by 5-days, a forecast that can certainly be disregarded for now.  One should wait till the system at least gets it’s act together before any reliability can be put into any forecast models.

East Pacific

Tropical Storm Jimena

Tropical Storm Jimena is a very impressive cyclone with a very cold central dense overcast over the center of the storm.  Jimena has also has very nice banding features in all quadrants.  Though the storm only has minimum tropical storm-force winds, 35kts or 40mph, it is expected to become a category one hurricane as it moves north-northwest up the Mexico coastline towards Baja.

Jimena is likely to come inland near the central Baja coast late Wednesday into Thursday as a strong tropical storm.  However, the storm is expected to take such a path that, relative to the coastline, any slight deviations to the east could make a potential landfall difference of hundreds of miles.  On the other hand, any deviations to the east could only bring rain and maybe a little bit of wind to the entire Baja Pacific coast.  Furthermore, the forecast models are in great disagreement on where Jimena will go.  All residents in the area should be prepared for tropical storm to hurricane conditions beginning Monday or Tuesday.

Track Tropical Storm Jimena on our interactive hurricane tracking chart.

Invest 95E

This wave has a 1008mb surface pressure associated with it.  As with Invest 94L, that is low enough to support tropical development.  A recent ASCAT pass showed easterly winds to the north and southerly winds to the west with winds up to 20kts.

Invest 95E has very good convection near it’s wave axis and this should help close off a surface circulation as early as this afternoon.  As soon as this occurs, the NHC will designate this system Tropical Depression Fourteen-E.

Computer models are lost on this sytem as well, typical for developing cyclones.  Some models take the system north and then west (NOGAPS, HWRF).  Some take the system north and then south (GFS).  The GFDL just takes it north.  This confusion will be tied in with Tropical Storm Jimena as the same weather features that control Jimena will affect this wave/storm.