Briefly, Hurricane Jimena has strengthened again and is being forecast to hit near La Paz, Baja California as a category four hurricane with winds near 145mph. Winds above 155mph make Jimena a category five. That is still not out of the question. However, it is still in doubt whether Jimena will undergo any eyewall replacement cycles – likely – and whether shear will have an impact on the hurricane as it approaches Baja. However, some of the forecast models are beginning to agree a bit more and it is looking more likely as if Jimena will pose a direct impact on the Baja peninsula.
The Government of Mexico has issued a hurricane watch from Bahia Magdalena on the Pacific coast to San Evaristo on the Gulf of California coast. A hurricane watch means hurricane conditions are possible within 36 hours. Hurricane warnings likely will not be posted until late tomorrow afternoon – but they seem inevitable.
Hurricane Jimena Forecast Advisory #10
Hurricane Jimena remains in extremely favorable atmospheric conditions and has tremendous outflow in all quadrants. The eye itself is estimated at five miles wide – extremely small even for a compact hurricane. The fact that it has yet to undergo an eyewall replacement cycle is astounding and I can’t imagine Jimena keeping this up much longer. There’s too much pressure over such a small area that it is inevitable the eye will collapse as another, wider eye begins to build. However, this will not weaken the hurricane considerably and residents along the Mexican Pacific coast should be prepared for a potentially devastating landfalling hurricane.
Hurricane Jimena - GOES 12 Visible - Aug 31, 2009 00:15 UTC - Credit: NRL Monterey
I’ll post a more detailed report in tomorrow morning’s tropical update.
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