Hurricane Jimena steady, Invest 94L organizing, and Kevin struggling

Hurricane Jimena is holding steady as a category four hurricane.  The National Hurricane Center thinks Jimena may be finally undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle.  However, there is no change in the forecast.  Invest 94L has developed a decent ball of convection to the north of the low-level center.  And Kevin is struggling and is likely to dissipate in a couple of days.

Quick to jump to:

• Invest 94L
• Hurricane Jimena
• Tropical Storm Kevin

Invest 94L

This wave has developed a pretty impressive ball of convection – however, it’s to the north of the wave axis or low-level low pressure center.  There is some spiral banding occuring near the storm, primarily to the north of the system.  I’ve been calling for this thing to develop for days and I’ve been hammered every single time.  This morning I’m keeping my mouth shut.

Yea, right.

I expect if this trend continues the convection can help finally close of a low-level circulation and I would not be surprised if the NHC decides to send a reconnaissance mission to check it out.  Don’t be surprised if a ship report comes in, either, that gives the NHC reason to upgrade the storm.  Two have already come in recently indicating a surface circulation.  They are too far away from the storm, though, to warrant upgrading the system.  One, at least 60 miles to the west reported north-northeast winds of 15kts with a 1011mb pressure and another about the same distance east reported 1013mb pressure with south winds at 15kts.  Buoys 41NT0, 41040 and 41101 will also see the system pass by, respectively, over the next day or so with the first two likely to be late this afternoon or evening.

The computer forecast models have begun to back off the recurving system and now keep it on a west-northwest track throughout the next several days.  Some of the intensity models continue to bring this thing to a storm in the next 2-3 days and a hurricane within 3-5 days.  Again, no watches or warnings will be posted until this system is classified at least a depression.  Any residents in the Lesser Antilles or anyone else planning to visit this week needs to be aware of the very, very, very, very slowly developing system.  While oceanic heat content is not relatively favorable for any rapid intensification for the next few days, water temperatures are more than enough to support modest strengthening (again – should this finally develop) especially as you get closer to the islands.

Hurricane Jimena

Hurricane Jimena continues to be an impressive storm.  However, there are indications the eye is beginning to collapse under the immense pressure and Jimena could weaken slightly today as it reorganizes its center.

A hurricane reconnaissance flight has been scheduled to fly into Jimena this afternoon so meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center will get plenty of data to use in their forecasting tools (you can get the reconnaissance observations immediately as they come in or follow me on twitter as I transcribe them).

There’s no recent satellite image to show if, in fact, the eyewall is undergoing replacement cycles.  The NHC believes it likely is due to the eye disappearing a bit even in IR imagery. The central dense overcast (CDO) has become slightly elongated to the south-southwest as the system “wobbles” around – another indication that an eyewall replacement cycle has begun.

There’s also a bit of drier air located to the west that may be starting to hamper convection a bit.  While this shouldn’t weaken the storm considerably, it could help a bit especially if it gets into the center of the storm.  A strong hurricane like this loves rhythm – they get into rhythms where everything is in sync; it comes with ease.  Remember that famous scene of “I Love Lucy” where Lucy is working the food conveyor belt and she starts to lag behind so she starts stuffing whatever it was in her mouth?  She got off rhythm and made a mess.  Hurricanes pretty much work the same way.  In instances such as eyewall replacement cycles or dry air intrusion it throws off the cycle or rhythm of the hurricane and causes the storm to “shake” a bit – which is why you see the elongated cdo in the image above.

I hesitate to post the computer model forecasts because they still vary so much. It looks like a fireworks show (what’s the occasion?).  You can see, though, that many are straight towards Baja, thus the hurricane watches that were issued last night (could be warnings as early as this afternoon).  Jimena is expected to be squeezed between a mid-level high pressure ridge over Mexico and an upper-level low pressure system over Baja.  The low along with land interaction with the mountainous terrain of Baja and cooler SST’s will help weaken Jimena, but not before potential landfall.  Jimena is still forecast to strike the peninsula near La Paz as a category four hurricane.

Track Hurricane Jimena and get the latest NHC forecast and wind radii on our interactive hurricane tracking chart.

Tropical Storm Kevin

Tropical Storm Kevin is barely a storm and the NHC is saying it’s possible the system will dissipate within the next 48 hours.  This is primarily due to the storm having an abundance of dry air to the north and west plus a bit to the south between Kevin and Jimena.   Water temperatures are approaching a minimum to support tropical cyclones so there won’t be enough energy from above or below to sustain Kevin much longer.   In fact, don’t be surprised if Kevin fizzles out earlier than expected.  Already, the NHC has said the mid-level circulation is likely separating from the low-level circulation.  If that is occuring any convection with the system will keep with the mid-level circulation and the low-level circulation will look make the system look like a naked tropical cyclone destined for an end.

Track Tropical Storm Kevin and get the latest NHC forecast and wind radii on our interactive hurricane tracking chart.

Related posts:

1. Hurricane Jimena remains steady and Invest 94L well organized
2. Increased Chances for TD 6, Jimena A Cat 4, and Kevin patient
3. Hurricane Jimena still a category four
4. Tropical Storm Jimena winding down.
5. Hurricane Jimena hours from landfall, weakening to a category two