Hurricane Jimena remains steady and Invest 94L well organized

Hurricane Jimena continues to take the spotlight as the system bears down on the Baja Peninsula of Mexico already causing tidal flooding well in advance of the storm.  Hurricane warnings are in effect for all of the peninsula south of approximately 25.5°N while hurricane watches are in effect northward to about 26.5°N on both coasts.  Jimena is expected to come inland near La Paz.  However, any slight change can mean a landfall difference of dozens, if not hundreds of miles.  Meanwhile, Invest 94L is holding together well despite shear.

Jump to:

• Invest 94L
• Hurricane Jimena
• Tropical Depression Kevin

Invest 94L

Invest 94L looks very well-organized on satellite imagery.  However, shear is impacting the storm from the west.  The wave is pushing towards an area of 20-40kt upper-level southeasterly wind shear though currently the system has a favorable anti-cyclone above.  The GFS latest run is forecasting the trough to stay ahead of Invest 94L while the anti-cyclone stays above which would allow for building convection.  However, should the anti-cyclone weaken or the wave outrace the anti-cyclone the system would likely be torn apart in the upper-levels and struggle with intensification.

Invest 94L is surrounded by quite a bit of dry air which is likely assisting the shear above in sending the storm in convective phases – a “now you see it, now you don’t” kind of deal.  This dry air is likely to stick around as long as the trough and could put a big damper on any serious intensification trends.  Both these atmospheric situations can be attributed to the lack of further development in this system so far.  Stupid storm…

Some of the latest computer model runs have not changed in their path taking Invest 94L towards the northern Lesser Antilles or to the north of the islands.  CLP5 looks like it wants to start a recurvature towards day five.  There’s also not been much change in intensity forecasting either.  Given that this system has failed to develop thus far, intensity forecasts should be ignored for the time being.  Residents and vacationers in the islands need to be prepared for the possibility of a strong tropical storm – maybe a hurricane – and be prepared for emergency procedures just in case.  Again, no tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings will be posted until this system develops – even if it’s right on top of the islands.

Hurricane Jimena

Reconnaissance flew into Jimena yesterday and is scheduled to go back today (I’ll post observations on twitter as I can – as my other job allows).  They found the pressure was lower and continuing to lower slightly from the hurricane center’s estimated pressure – last report was 931mb.  Since then, the hurricane center has kept Jimena relatively the same despite fluctuations both positive and negative in satellite imagery.  Current winds are 135kts or 155mph.

Jimena’s eye has disappeared under the cooler cloud tops.  It’s possible that the 10-mile-wide feature is undergoing yet another replacement cycle.  Jimena will be moving into an area of somewhat cooler SST’s (still upper 20’s) but also where oceanic heat content is more limited.  This should help the hurricane remain steady with intensity – perhaps some minor fluctuations.  Nonetheless, Jimena will not be weakening considerably and a major hurricane will brush or directly hit Baja late tomorrow morning.

There has been some shift west with some of the forecast models.  The NHC is holding onto their forecast for right now but there remains a possibility that Jimena may not move directly onshore.  However, even though the hurricane is small, it could still come close to generating hurricane conditions to several areas along the coastline.  In contrast, it could also stay just enough offshore that areas would only see tropical storm-force winds.  However, surge and tidal flooding is still almost guaranteed as well as heavy rains – as much as 15-20 inches in some places.

One other quick note, I finally put together a small report on the fastest intensifying storms from first classification.  You’d be very surprised where Jimena ranks.  Look for that report to be posted around 12:30CDT, 17:30 UTC.

Track Hurricane Jimena and get the latest NHC forecast and wind radii on our interactive hurricane tracking chart.

Tropical Depression Kevin

I won’t get into Kevin much as the storm is well on its way out the door.  Kevin is battling cooler water temperatures and an unfavorable upper-level environment.  The only reason advisories continue to be issued is Kevin manages a flare-up here and there.  Other than that, look for this storm to be declassified by the end of today.

Track Tropical Storm Kevin and get the latest NHC forecast and wind radii on our interactive hurricane tracking chart.

Related posts:

1. Hurricane Jimena steady, Invest 94L organizing, and Kevin struggling
2. Danny Dead, Jimena Alive, and two other likely storms
3. Increased Chances for TD 6, Jimena A Cat 4, and Kevin patient
4. Hurricane Jimena still a category four
5. Tropical Storm Jimena winding down.