Beware the NHC forecast as this will be another tricky one. The question is: will Erika resemble Tropical Storm Danny or is it more likely to resemble Hurricane Bill? Forecasters are in a very uncomfortable position because Erika’s intensity will determine where the system goes. However, the deeper that Erika extends into the atmosphere the more likely it is to have more shear to contend with, thus creating a generally strong tropical storm or, perhaps, a minimal hurricane. That still may be generous. Southeast US residents should be prepared for a storm of some magnitude (like that one?). However, it seems more likely that as a weaker Erika would travel further west threatening the US, that it would be a weaker system and not a stronger one, which would get picked up and take Bill’s path.
If I had to choose between which storm Erika will resemble, I pick Danny. Without the fizzling out at the end. I’ll post a more detailed look when I can.
