Tropical Storm Jimena made landfall twice yesterday afternoon – the first around 8:00 AM PDT as a category two with 105mph winds near Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico. The second landfall came around 2:00PM PDT near San Buenaventura, Mexico as a category one hurricane with 85mph winds. There are the typical damage reports of downed homes and businesses, particularly in Cuidad Constitucion and San Ignacio Lagoon. So far, however, there are no fatalities. Government officials estimate over 11,000 people went to opened shelters during the storm. Jimena has now weakened to a moderate tropical storm and is likely to be a depression by the end of the day.
Currently
Tropical Storm Jimena is currently located just north of Santa Rosalia moving slightly more westerly than before and slower – something the NHC had been forecasting would be likely. Jimena’s central pressure is up to 997mb with maximum winds near 55mph. Though Jimena is emerging over the waters of the Gulf of California and despite SST over 30°C land interaction predominantly will not allow any re-intensification of the storm.
Satellite Presentation
Jimena is undergoing some westerly wind shear in excess of 20kts over the system which is forcing the majority of the convection to the east of the center. These winds are helping carry moisture from Jimena into deep west Texas, south along the Rio Grande Valley into the Gulf of Mexico.
Tropical Storm Jimena - IR - Sep 3, 2009 09:15 UTC - Credit: NASA/MSFC
A great deal of the coldest cloud tops are located to the south and east of Jimena covering parts of the Gulf of California into Mexico. This is undoubtedly creating torrential rainfall in Cuidad Obregón and Navojoa and surrounding areas so the threat of flash flooding is still very real for some.
Forecast
The NHC continues to believe Jimena will begin making a slow counter-clockwise turn back towards the Pacific. Most computer models are in agreement with this type of scenario – some do it faster than others.
Tropical Storm Jimena - Forecast Plots - Sep 3, 2009 06:00 UTC - Credit: CSU
Even if Jimena were to manage to maintain some type of tropical characteristics it is unlikely the system would redevelop once back in the Pacific. Water temperatures are well below the 26°C threshold necessary to support tropical cyclones. I suppose there is a slight likelihood the remnant low could continue moving southwest as predicted by some models as you see above. Provided the system doesn’t disintegrate completely there is a possibility for redevelopment early next week. However, this is highly doubtful. It is likely today will be the last day Jimena is discussed on this website as an active tropical system.
Tropical Storm Jimena Forecast #23
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