It’s still a bit unclear of the hybrid system off the mid-Atlantic coast will redevelop enough convection to warrant classification by the NHC. However, the system is trying. There remains a well-defined low-level circulation near 36°N, 71°W, or due east of the North Carolina/Virginia border. The system has had a couple of “flares” firing throughout the day. However, once the convection gets into the mid-levels the faster winds rip the tops away. However, the trough is expected to lift up throughout the day into tomorrow allowing a high pressure ridge to rebuild. If the system can maintain it’s low-level circulation – and there’s no reason to think it won’t – going into tomorrow afternoon we should start to see some convection redevelop.
North Carolina Hybrid - GOES - Sep 9, 2009 17:01 UTC - Credit: NASA/MSFC
The question at that time will be: does it develop into a tropical or subtropical depression or storm? Or, will it have nothing left and be a wind event. One question that seems easy to answer is: where will it go? Models continue to point primarily towards the New Jersey shore. Regardless of where the system ends up, it’s likely to be lop-sided as with most hybrid systems and young cyclones and most of the heaviest wind and rain (if any) will be to the northeastern side of the system.
UKMET - 60hrs - Sep 9, 2009 00:00 UTC - Credit: Meteocentre
The UKMET hasn’t changed much since yesterday except now it brings the system inland over the New Jersey coast sometime Friday.
NGP - 60 Hrs - Sep 9, 2009 00:00 UTC - Credit: FSU
GFS - 60 Hrs - Sep 9, 2009 12:00 UTC - Credit: FSU
CMC - 54 Hrs - Sep 9, 2009 00:00 UTC - Credit: FSU
Of all the models I’ve posted the CMC is the deepest with a minor tropical storm coming inland. It is also the fastest. The GFS has backed off sending a storm inland breaking it apart just prior to “landfall”. All of these models, however, send the system to a stand-still tomorrow and bring it back towards New Jersey on Friday as either a trough of low pressure or a tropical system.
Now, of course, I haven’t shown models that disagree with the ones I’ve posted. This is not on purpose. I’ve honestly not seen any that don’t. But, I’m not really looking either. If you’d like to post an image source countering, feel free to post a comment.
Again, I’m not saying I think this will be a tropical storm coming into the New Jersey/New York areas. But, I do see what the models are trying to do and I have seen it before. The funny thing is: the NHC took a situation exactly like this last year and watched it before calling it a storm. Now, it’s as if they’re completely ignoring it. At least, they’re not mentioning it anymore in the Tropical Weather Outlooks. And, that’s fine. Had the system been classified it wouldn’t be now due to it’s current appearance. Given the current looks of it, it may not be able to fire enough convection to build deep into the atmosphere and, thus, still not warrant classification. But, this will be bringing tropical storm conditions to the New England coast going into Friday.
In reference to the Gulf situation, I was going to write about it last night but decided to wait another day or so. I may post something tonight. If I don’t, then obviously I’m not concerned. I live in Houston so the rainfall this thing could bring would help in addition to current rains we’ve received lately. I will say, however, that if anything should develop down there, it won’t do much as far as intensification if the upper-level winds remain hostile as they have most of this year. If the winds weaken and relax, however, and a tropical low develops, there could be a huge explosion of a storm with the untapped energy sources in this part of the world. Again, when I get a better feel for it, I’ll write up an article.
