Wow, what a day in the west Pacific yesterday. Typhoon Ketsana hammered Vietnam killing at least 52 and causing massive mudslides. Tropical Depression 19W wrapped up to become Typhoon Parma. And, if that wasn’t enough, an undersea earthquake sent tsunami warnings flying across the basin yesterday killing over 100, so far (Pago Pago, a tiny island in the south Pacific recorded a maximum sea level rise of 5-feet, according to the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center).
But, this is a tropical cyclone website so I’ll stay focused on the big three of the world, this morning.
Typhoon Ketsana
Ketsana has been downgraded and advisories discontinued, but not after delivering a punch many local residents felt was the biggest in years.
“We’re used to storms that sweep away one or two houses. But I’ve never seen a storm this strong.”
Nam Tum, governor of Kampong Thom province in Cambodia
Over 170,000 homes were destroyed across Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia and Thailand yesterday as Ketsana swept through. Latest reports are that at least 52 have died as a result of the second landfall. This brings Ketsana’s death toll, thus far, to over 300 leaving another nearly 600,000 homeless. Dozens remain missing as of this morning.
Typhoon Parma
Parma was upgraded to a tropical storm yesterday afternoon, UTC, and to a typhoon late last night.
Parma currently is packing winds of 75kts (86mph or 139kph) which makes it a category one on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Parma is moving towards the northwest around 17kts (20mph or 31kph).
Parma is forecast to become a category three typhoon as it passes north of the Phillipines towards Taiwan going into Sunday and Monday.
Typhoon Parma - GMS-6 IR - Sep 30, 2009 08:30Z
Typhoon Parma is a well-organized storm system with a small, but cold CDO reaching -90°C (-130°F), mainly in the western and northern quadrant. Parma also has a cloud-filled eye approximately 20 miles wide visible on infrared satellite imagery.
Typhoon Parma should continue to intensify as deep convective bands continue to get pulled into the system. Outflow is well-established in all quadrants thanks, in part, to an upper-level anticyclone.
Parma is forecast by a majority of the computer models to continue tracking around the edge of the upper-level high through the next 72 hours. Afterwards, there are some issues as how to Parma will interact with Tropical Storm Melor as the two slowly get closer to one another. The forecast track towards the latter period will be highly dependent upon how strong of a cyclone Melor becomes.
Typhoon Parma - Forecast Advisory 11
The remnants of Tropical Depression 18W are expected to become absorbed in Parma over the next couple of days.
With an abundance of warm moist air around Parma as well as SST 28°C (82°F) to 30°C (86°F) it is highly possible Parma could intensify faster than forecast and/or become stronger than currently forecast.
Tropical Storm Melor
It’s going to be very interesting and – with all due respect to those in the path of Parma and Melor – fun to watch Melor and Parma interact with each other. Melor is not expected to become stronger than a category one typhoon at the present time. A weaker Melor would be more controlled by Parma as the two systems decrease the gap between each other. That makes Melor’s long-term forecasting more difficult, as well.
Tropical Storm Melor is being controlled by the same upper-level high that is steering Parma. Melor is forecast to pass to the north of Guam or over Saipan as a minimum typhoon with winds of 80kts (92mph or 148kph) early Saturday morning, UTC.
Tropical Storm Melor - Forecast Advisory 5
Melor’s center of circulation is underneath a rather warm but symmetric CDO of -40°C (-40°F). Melor, also, is wrapping deep convection into the lower level circulation. Thanks to the anticyclone to the north, Melor is establishing outflow in all quadrants and this should help the system grow and intensify per the latest forecast.
Tropical Storm Melor - GMS-6 IR - Sep 30, 2009 09:30Z
Tropical Storm Melor is also surrounded by very warm, moist air. In addition, the storm system is passing over the northern edge of a pool of 30°C (86°F) waters.
Given the conditions, it’s not unreasonable to think Tropical Storm Melor will intensify faster than currently forecast.
