Super Typhoon Melor strengthened throughout the day yesterday, UTC with current winds at 120kts (138mph or 222kph). Meanwhile, Typhoon Parma has had to deal with mid-level dry air that has hampered convective development. Nonetheless, Parma is expected to strike the northern Philippines as a major typhoon.
Typhoon Parma
Satellite imagery shows some areas of the Philippines are already receiving rainfall rates up to 1 1/2 inches per hour. This activity will gradually spread inland throughout the day as Parma continues its west-northwestward track.
Typhoon Parma - GMS-6 IR - Oct 2, 2009 08:57Z
Typhoon Parma is forecast to make landfall around midnight October 2/3, UTC. Winds are forecast around 110kts (127mph or 204kph) and 115kts (132mph or 213kph), strong category three strength.
The latest forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) takes Parma inland for about 18 hours before emerging north of the Philippines. It is anticipated at this time that Parma will slow it’s course due to lack of steering currents. However, there is still some uncertainty with some of the computer models that pull the system further north. Parma will likely continue to weaken, however, to a tropical storm.
Typhoon Parma Forecast Advisory 17
Due to uncertainty in the forecast track and Parma’s close proximity to land, it’s likely the estimated rainfall amounts, up to 15 inches in many locations, could be underestimates. Parma is capable of dumping considerable amounts of rain in any location of Luzon, Philippines, particularly the mountainous region on the east side of the island.
Typhoon Parma - F-17 Rain - Oct 1, 2009 21:13Z
Super Typhoon Melor
Super Typhoon Melor has maintained an impressive structure for the past 24 hours and shown no signs of weakening. Currently, the super typhoon has winds of 120kts (138mph or 222kph) with a minimum central pressure of 933mb (27.55in). Super Typhoon Melor is forecast to continue to intensify to a strong category four typhoon with winds of 130kts (150mph or 241kph) at the time of landfall in the central Mariana Islands tomorrow morning, UTC.
Super Typhoon Melor - GMS-6 IR - Oct 2, 2009 08:57Z
Super Typhoon Melor’s forecast track is split right down the middle of the forecast models as the cyclone should begin to turn northward towards the end of the forecast period.
Super Typhoon Melor - F-16 Rain - Oct 2, 2009 09:19Z
The two typhoon’s are likely to be close enough to induce some binary interaction with Super Typhoon Melor, the more intense system forecast with winds near 140kts (161mph or 259kph) being the more dominant system. With Parma being the considerably weaker tropical cyclone, it’s entirely possible Parma will be weakened and drawn into Super Typhoon Melor. While this may give a slight boost to strength, please do not expect some Hollywood-type scenario of Melor doubling in size and strength. I hate to say that but I’ve seen some people stating it as fact – ridiculous.
Super Typhoon Melor Forecast Advisory 11
Anyway, on a side note, I will be in Corpus Christi today through Saturday. It’ll be very difficult for me to post on Parma’s impact but I’ll do what I can. I have set aside an hour or so to write about Tropical Storm Olaf which you will be able to find on my Wunderblog around 5PM UTC.
Good luck to the families and friends of those in the paths of Melor and Parma.
Related posts:
- Parma leaves damage, death behind; Super Typhoon Melor to weaken before brushing Tokyo, Japan
- Typhoon Melor will hit Japan; Tropical Storm Parma revisits Philippines
- Typhoon Melor 9 hours from landfall; Parma exits Philippines where it came ashore as Typoon Saturday
- Super Typhoon Melor gaining latitude, strength; on target for Japan sideswipe Thursday
- Typhoon Parma and Typhoon Melor set to dance
