There has been little change in the previous 24 hours in regards to Super Typhoon’s forecast. As mentioned previously, should Super Typhoon Melor follow the forecast track the forward bearing would need to begin increasing. And, that, it has done going from 290deg west-northwest to currently 305deg or almost due northwest.
Super Typhoon Melor still resembles a classic category five super typhoon with winds near 135kts (155mph or 250kph). However, while there is a slight possibility of additional intensification in the next 24 hours, Melor’s better days are likely gone.
Super Typhoon Melor isn’t quite as symmetric in the CDO as before with much of the coldest cloud tops – -70°C (-94°F) – in all but the western quadrant. In fact, the western quadrant has values 20°C (68°F) warmer.
Super Typhoon Melor GMS-6 IR - Oct 5, 2009 15:57 UTC
The eye, however, remains well defined but a bit larger than yesterday: 32 nautical miles.
Melor is still forecast to continue making a recurve towards the northeast which will bring it very near the coast of Japan late night Wednesday into Thursday, UTC.
Super Typhoon Melor - Forecast Advisory #26
Melor is forecast to be a weakening typhoon at this time due to a deep upper-level trough currently located near Okinawa, Japan. This trough will induce heavy shear on the system limiting the deep convective development necessary for strengthening.
In addition, minimal SST‘s will not allow any intensive strengthening.
Super Typhoon Melor - SST's - Oct 4, 2009 22:52 UTC - Credit: CIMSS
