Typhoon Melor will hit Japan; Tropical Storm Parma revisits Philippines

Asia just can’t get a break.

Typhoon Melor is considerably weaker from it’s previous category five super typhoon status, the storm is still expected to be category one to two status when it strikes the southern coast of Japan late Wednesday, early Thursday, UTC.

Tropical Storm Parma has made a turn back towards the northwestern Philippines coast making another landfall in the province of Ilocos Norte.  This is the same location Parma exited the Philippines as a tropical storm a couple of days earlier.

Typhoon Melor

Typhoon Melor is currently located near 24.5°N, 130.8°E, roughly 220 miles southeast of Okinawa Island, Japan.

Typhoon Melor is north-northwest (345°) at 15kts (17mph or 28kph).  This motion is forecast to turn more northerly today into early tomorrow and northeasterly thereafter.

This forecast will take Typhoon Melor onshore Wakayama Prefecture in the Kansai province of Japan late Wednesday or early Thursday.

Forecast maximum winds at that time are anywhere between 70kts (81mph or 130kph) and 85kts (98mph or 157kph).

Typhoon Melor continues to be a well-organized but shallower system than in the past.  The cloud-filled eye is surrounded by sketchy patches of -80°C (-112°F), more -70°C (-94°F), primarily on the eastern side of the CDO.

Melor is forecast to continue moving around the western edge of a subtropical mid-to-upper-level ridge.  Shortly before landfall Melor will pick up speed as it moves into the mid-latitudes .  Shear, land interaction, and cooler SST‘s will all play a factor in weakening Melor to a minimal tropical storm at the end of the forecast period.

Areas of Japan are forecast to receive as much as 8-12 inches of rain as Melor passes.

Tropical Storm Parma

Tropical Storm Parma is currently void of deep convection. Satellite estimates indicated spotty areas of convection are dropping as much as an inch of rain in some locations offshore.  However, due to the already saturated grounds from Parma’s first pass as well as Typhoon Ketsana, any rainfall can create dangerous flash flooding conditions.

Parma is currently trapped in a weak area of steering winds which has led to the clockwise loop back into the Phillipine coast.  The loop can also be attributed to Typhoon Melor’s approach approximately 700 miles to the east-northeast.

The latest forecast calls for Tropical Storm Parma to move westward beneath a building ridge currently situated over China.

Parma is gradually expected to strengthen to a strong tropical storm  as the system begins to threaten Hainan Province in the People’s Republic of China.  However, due to low convective activity and Parma’s interaction with land, this intensity forecast could vary significantly.

Should Tropical Storm Parma be able to maintain significant internal structure as it enters the South China Sea, sst’s are favorable for intensification including a warm 28°C (82°F) in which Parma is expected to pass through the northern edge.