It’s really difficult to know where to focus on sometimes. Typhoon Melor is a shadow of its former self. Yet it’s still forecast to bring 85kts (98mph or 157kph) to southern Japan today, UTC.
Tropical Storm Parma not only came back ashore in the Philippines the same place it had left a couple of days earlier, but it also went back offshore the same place it came onshore as a Typhoon several days ago.
Tropical Storm Henri may have the attention of most of the United States. But, make no doubt a good deal of people are watching Parma and Melor.
So that’s where we focus this morning.
Tropical Storm Parma
Clearly, Tropical Storm Parma is under the influence of Typhoon Melor. With lack of additional steering currents to push Parma away into the South China Sea, Melor has pulled Parma back east-southeast across the northern Philippines.
Tropical Storm Parma - aqua Vis - 1km res - 2009-10-07
Though Melor has brought Parma back for a revisit to the Philippines, Melor has also stripped Parma of its deep moisture. Parma is forecast to drop up to another inch of rain. However, the heaviest rains are expected to remain offshore.
Tropical Storm Parma - 24 hour rainfall forecast - Oct 7, 2009 06:00 UTC
Parma is still forecast to turn westerly beneath a building ridge as Typhoon Melor escapes the environment. Most models disagree with the timing but are in agreement with the general path, according to the JTWC.
Tropical Storm Parma - Forecast Advisory #39
Typhoon Melor
Typhoon Melor - aqua visible 250m resolution - Oct 7, 2009 04:57Z
There hasn’t been any change in Melor’s forecast other than a slight shift to the west. Melor has rounded the western edge of the steering ridge and has turned north-northeast.
Melor is forecast to be a category two typhoon as it makes landfall in a few hours.
Melor should pick up forward speed as it races across Japan and heads into the northwest Pacific this time tomorrow.
Typhoon Melor - Forecast Advisory #33
Typhoon Melor is expected to drop as much as 10 inches of rain in most locations. Some isolated areas could receive more rainfall.
Typhoon Melor - 24 hour rainfall forecast - Oct 7, 2009 06:00 UTC
The primary concern should be the storm surge. Though Typhoon Melor is weaker, the system should still have a significant storm surge greater than normal of category two systems; perhaps as much as 25-feet in some locations. I think surge will likely be greatest in the shallow Mikawa Bay of which the center of Melor should pass on the western edge shortly after landfall.
