If you’re looking for storms to track you’re confined to a tight region of the globe in the west Pacific between China and the Mariana Islands.
Two tropical systems, Tropical Storm Parma and Tropical Depression Nepartak are the only game in town. And neither are impressive. In fact, I seriously considered working on another article this afternoon I’ve been putting off (and, obviously, putting off again). But, I’ll give a brief rundown of what’s going on.
Tropical Storm Parma
Tropical Storm Parma has exited the Philippines – this time, for good. Parma is currently located 120 miles west-northwest of Santiago Island, Philippines. Parma is moving towards the northwest at about 6kts (7mph or 11kph).
Winds are low at 35kts (40mph or 65kph). Barometric pressure is approximately 1000mb (29.53in).
Parma is currently under moderate easterly shear between 10kts (12mph or 19kph) and 20kts (23mph or 37kph).
Tropical Storm Parma - Shear - Oct 9, 2009 18:00 UTC
Parma will pass to the south of a pool of 28°C (82°F) SST’s in about 24 hours. All along the forecast track SST’s will be between 26°C (79°F) and 28°C (82°F). OHC values, however, are relatively low.
Tropical Storm Parma - SST - Oct 8, 2009 22:53 UTC
This, as well as a low-to-mid-level ridge to Parma’s north which is preventing outflow is expected to prevent Parma from intensifying too much.
The latest forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center has Parma peaking at 40kts (46mph or 74kph) winds over the north central South China Sea.
Parma is forecast to make two final landfalls. The first is in Qionghai, Hainan, People’s Republic of China on Monday, October 12, UTC.
The second landfall is forecast to be about 40 miles north of Cua Lo, vietnam on Wednesday, October 14, as a tropical depression.
Tropical Storm Parma - Forecast Advisory #49
Parma is a very disorganized cyclone with all of its convection located in the southern quadrant. Outflow is non-existent to the north due to the aforementioned low/mid-level ridge.
Tropical Storm Parma - MTSAT IR - Oct 9, 2009 19:57 UTC
The Associated Press reports that Parma’s death toll in the Philippines is now 174 with another 48 missing. Parma and Typhoon Ketsana are blamed for more than 500 deaths in the Phillipines. As of Tuesday, the United Nations is seeking an additional $74 million USD in aid for the Philippines.
Tropical Depression Nepartak
Tropical Depression Nepartak is just as ugly as Parma.
The cyclone is located under low to moderate westerly shear between 10kts (12mph or 19kph) and 20kts (23mph or 37kph).
Tropical Depression Nepartak - Shear - Oct 9, 2009 18:00 UTC
Much of Nepartak’s heaviest convection is in the northern quadrant.
Tropical Depression Nepartak - IR - Oct 9, 2009 20:30 UTC
Due to interaction with a trough and the subtropical ridge, Nepartak is not expected to strengthen beyond a 35kts (40mph or 65kph) tropical storm. The JTWC anticipates by Sunday morning Nepartak will be a depression again.
Nepartak is forecast to move north around the western edge of a subtropical ridge.
Tropical Depression Nepartak - Forecast Advisory #6
SST’s along the forecast track are near 28°C (82°F) until the last 24 hours where the SST’s drop to 26°C (79°F).
Tropical Depression Nepartak - SST - Oct 8, 2009 22:53 UTC
As a hurricane enthusiast, these storms suck…
Related posts:
- Depression Nineteen-E to develop; weak Parma to strike Hainan; Tropical Storm Nepartak round up the global activity
- Typhoon Parma a category three and still growing
- Hurricane Watch: Forecasting the Deadliest Storms on Earth
- TD Parma back over Philippines – again; Melor extratropical and offshore; development near Guam
- Typhoon Melor will hit Japan; Tropical Storm Parma revisits Philippines
