The National Hurricane Center is keeping close eyes on Invest 92E as the system continues to show organization.
Currently, the low is approximately 255 miles southeast of Cuyutlán, Colima, Mexico, near 16.5°N, -107°W, according to NRL Monterey. This is a position relocation of about 120 miles southeast of about six hours ago. However, Invest 92E is currently stationary.
There are some considerable variations in the forecast models from landfall along Nayarit or southern Sinaloa to a north-to-west turn well south of the Baja California Peninsula.
Invest 92E does not appear likely to become more than a moderate tropical storm at this time.
The position shift southeast of an earlier estimate is due to the heavier convection developing in the southeastern quadrant. As with most developing tropical systems the heaviest convection will try to keep the surface circulation underneath.
Invest 92E - GOES 11 IR - Oct 10, 2009 13:00 UTC
Provided the convective bursts remain constant, there should be only minor adjustments in location estimates.
The system had lost much of its convection late last night into early morning, UTC. The latest, and considerably intense, burst over the last several hours is occuring beneath an upper-level high. This favorable upper-level atmosphere is also aiding outflow of the storm, as evident in the latest infrared imagery, primarily to the south.
According to the NHC, convection in 92E has been inconsistent due to a mid-to-upper-level trough lifting out of the area bringing an immense area of dry air behind. Those westerly winds are preventing considerably moist air to the east from being wrapped into the system.
Invest 92E - Total precipitable water - Oct 10, 2009 11:00 UTC
Scat overpass results show a very disorganized surface system with mostly calm winds. 40kts (46mph or 74kph) winds are the strongest but are located well to the east of the system. 30kts (35mph or 56kph) winds are to the south of the system; again, well away from the position estimate.
Invest 92E - various recent Scat overpasses - Oct 10, 2009 13:00 UTC
Ultimately because of the dry air most of the intensity forecast models do not anticipate 92E developing much beyond a moderate tropical storm. SHIP, at best, expects 45kts (52mph or 83kph) to 50kts (58mph or 93kph). HWFI brings the system to 40kts (46mph or 74kph) before dissipating.
Invest 92E - intensity guidance - Oct 10, 2009 00:00 UTC
The GFS Ensemble forecasts take Invest 92E inland into Baja California Peninsula (the results I found were a bit outdated so this may have changed with relocation).
Invest 92E - GFS ensemble - Oct 9, 2009 18:00 UTC
Other models, including the GFDL and HRWF (both of which anticipate a strong tropical storm with 70kts (81mph or 130kph)), take the system inland into Mexico while some want to turn the system back towards the west after a brief northward jog.
Invest 92E - track guidance - Oct 10, 2009 00:00 UTC
The most likely scenario at this time is that as the previously-mentioned trough lifts off to the northeast allowing a building ridge to take over. The cyclone will become caught in the northerly to northeasterly flow around the ridge and come inland likely in the Mexico state of Sinaloa, around Mazatlán.
Due to anticipated strong shear between the ridge and the trough, I think the cyclone will closely follow the previous track of Tropical Depression One-e, only a bit further out to sea and landfall further north. Furthermore, the interaction between the ridge and the trough will create considerable shear in the upper atmosphere which I think will prevent 92E from becoming anything more than a moderate tropical storm, peaking around winds near 55kts (63mph or 102kph).
What do you think will become of 92E? Post your comments below and make a forecast.
