Tropical Storm Parma struck Hainan, China yesterday as a minimal tropical storm. So far I’ve been unable to find any reports of damage or deaths, if any.
Tropical Storm Patricia continues to maintain moderate strength and has caused Tropical Storm Warnings to be psoted along the southern tip of Baja California peninsula. Patricia is expected to turn west today missing direct impact.
Parma and Patricia are the only active cyclones on the globe as advisories were discontinued on Tropical Storm Nepartak early this morning, UTC.
Tropical Storm Parma
As of 7:00 UTC, Tropical Storm Parma was moving west-northwest across the northern Gulf of Tonkin with winds near 35kts (40mph or 65kph). Minimum central pressure is 1000mb (29.53in).
Parma made landfall about 24 hours ago near Wanning, Hainan. Winds were near 35kts (40mph or 65kph).
Parma is expected to make it’s fifth and final landfall early tomorrow morning near Vinh, Vietnam as a minimal tropical storm.
Tropical Storm Parma - Forecast Advisory #63
Tropical Storm Parma is experiencing disruptive inflow due to the proximity to land masses, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center says. A SSMI pass late yesteday showed a spiral band wrapping into the low-level circulation.
Tropical Storm Parma - SSMI pass - Oct 12, 2009 22:30 UTC
Parma continues to move to the south of a subtropical ridge anchored over southern China. The ridge is expected to shift southward throughout Parma’s forecast thus pushing Parma west-southwest beginning later today.
A MODIS image (250m resolution) – credit NRL Monterey – taken at 5:56 UTC shows a dry center of circulation with several embedded vortices within the CDO.
Tropical Storm Patricia
Tropical Storm Patricia has become an elongated tropical storm oriented south-southeast to north-northwest. This is due to northwesterly low-level flow according to the NHC in the latest storm discussion.
Tropical Storm Patricia - GOES-11 IR - Oct 13, 2009 10:15 UTC
Patricia has seen some diminishing cloud tops overnight to near -60°C (-76°F) but recently has cooled back down to -70°C (-94°F). These cooler cloud tops are primarily east of the low level circulation.
Tropical Storm Patricia - Forecast advisory #7
Patricia has been moving around the western edge of a mid-level ridge located over Mexico. A mid-level trough to Patricia’s northwest is forecast to move out today allowing the ridge to build west, turning Patricia west in the process.
Though most models agree in the westward turn, there are variances in when, hence the tropical storm warnings.
Tropical Storm Patricia’s forecasted closest approach to Cabo San Lucas is 55 miles in about 12 hours before the storm begins to turn west.
Though Tropical Storm Patricia will continue to fight significant dry air to the west, the NHC has allowed for some strengthening due to warm SST‘s and low shear. The NHC forecasts growth from 50kts (58mph or 93kph) to 55kts (63mph or 102kph) today before gradual weakening throughout the remainder of the forecast period.
{ 22 comments… read them below or add one }
Looks like flash flooding will be an issues again this time in Vietnam.
I also read ten were dead in China on another blog but I think that’s questionable.
Jason, I have several different sources I use for that type of information and I’ve yet to see anything as far as damage or injuries/deaths. I suspect being that it is China we’re talking about that those reports will be very slow to surface – even if they do.
Patricia:
dude you said the toher day patricia would hit mexico. specifically said it would not turn west.
At the time I felt it would turn west and felt that up until yesterday. Yes, I erred. I know why. It’s happened more than I care to admit this season and I know why but sometimes my gut feeling overrides my head. It happens.
BTW, nice email addy. Had to edit your comment a bit, though. I’m sure you understand. KIT
you were wrong about
HneriHenri and the SAsotrmstorm too(P.S., sorry “wrong-forecast”, had to correct your spelling. TT)
I wasn’t the only one. It happens.
If you’d like to write your own forecast you’re more than welcome to post a comment or even become a free registered member and write your own article.
In the meantime, unless you can provide conversation of quality, this will be the last approved comment from you.
Thanks, though.
In Tim’s defense he did mention potential landfall in Baja and mentioned models turning Patricia west well before she even developed. He just jumped on wrong side – no biggie.
http://www.personalhurricanecenter.com/4233/invest-92e-good-chance-becoming-depression/
Newest discussion on Pat:
WTPZ44 KNHC 131454
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192009
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 13 2009
PATRICIA LOOKS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THE CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST IS RAGGED AND ELONGATED NORTH TO SOUTH…AND NO OUTER
BANDING IS PRESENT. THE OVERALL CIRCULATION ALSO APPEARS TO BE
ELONGATED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. IN ADDITION…THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS
POOR IN ALL DIRECTIONS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT
FROM TAFB AND 45 KT FROM SAB…SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS A
POSSIBLY GENEROUS 50 KT.
THE STORM HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST OF DUE NORTH DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HRS…WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED AT 015/6. THE LARGE
SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES TO LIFT OUT…WITH AN EAST TO WEST MID-LEVEL
RIDGE DEVELOPING NORTH OF PATRICIA DURING THE NEXT 12-36 HR. THESE
DEVELOPMENTS SHOULD TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD AND WESTWARD
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD…AS INDICATED BY ALL THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE EXCEPT THE HWRF. THAT MODEL FORECASTS PATRICIA TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA…WHICH
APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THE MOMENT. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE
TREND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CALLS FOR A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR…WITH A WESTWARD MOTION LATER
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NEW TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER CLOSER TO
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA…WITH THE CLOSEST APPROACH DURING THE
FIRST 12-24 HR.
PATRICIA IS CURRENTLY IN A LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
OVER WARM WATER…SO THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER…UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT
CONVERGENT AT THIS TIME….AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA SHOWS
VERY DRY AIR JUST WEST OF THE STORM. THE LATTER SHOULD BECOME AN
INCREASING PROBLEM WHEN PATRICIA TURNS WESTWARD. THE GLOBAL MODELS
FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 72 HR…WHILE THE GFDL
HOLDS ON TO IT FOR FIVE DAYS WITH SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE
FIRST 36 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST COMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE
MODELS…WITH SLIGHT STRENGTHENING INDICATED DURING THE FIRST 12 HR
FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL DECAY TO DISSIPATION OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BY 96 HR. THE HWRF CONTINUES TO FORECAST A
SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER STORM AND REMAINS AN OUTLIER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 13/1500Z 21.4N 109.0W 50 KT
12HR VT 14/0000Z 21.9N 109.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 14/1200Z 22.3N 110.3W 50 KT
36HR VT 15/0000Z 22.4N 111.8W 45 KT
48HR VT 15/1200Z 22.5N 113.3W 40 KT
72HR VT 16/1200Z 22.5N 116.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 17/1200Z 22.5N 119.5W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 18/1200Z…DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
I thought you mispelled your username for a second; had to double-check before I called you out. Glad I did.
Bombay’s the better gin, though!
nice site. Nothing on melor in Cali though. what’s the deal?
Honestly, wans’t thinking about it. I get emails every morning with most of the information I use to write and since Melor wasn’t tropical, I received nothing so wasn’t even thinking about it.
But, yes, San Francisco is going to get hit pretty hard today, I’d imagine. Least, according to latest forecast:
Dr. Masters says Sierra’s can see 120mph winds.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1349
“First major storm arrives” – Contra Costa Times, Oct 13, 2009
http://www.contracostatimes.com/california/ci_13550653
2 to 2.5 already across bay.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=mux&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no
any thoughts on the low near 30n 35w?
it’s a cold-core surface low associated with an upper-level trough. no worries (Grace II, maybe??? j/k)
just a mess
Here’s a good pic of Parma
nice eye!
dry air
WTPZ44 KNHC 132038
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192009
200 PM PDT TUE OCT 13 2009
QUIKSCAT DATA NEAR 13Z SHOWED A 45-50 KT WIND VECTOR ABOUT 45 N MI
SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF PATRICIA. SINCE THAT TIME…THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED…LEAVING A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS PARTLY
OBSCURED BY CIRRUS DEBRIS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO
45 KT BASED ON A SLOW DECAY FROM THE TIME OF THE QUIKSCAT DATA…AND
THIS INTENSITY COULD BE GENEROUS. WHY THE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED
IS NOT CLEAR…BUT UPPER-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRY
AND STABLE AIR INTO THE CYCLONE FROM THE WEST COULD BE REASONS.
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS JUST EAST OF NORTH AT 010/6. ALL OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS NOW FORECAST ENOUGH MID-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING
NORTH OF PATRICIA TO TURN THE CYCLONE WESTWARD IN THE NEXT 12-24
HRS…AND THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF THE RIDGE BUILDING IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF MODELS BRING THE CENTER OVER
THE SOUTHERN END OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BEFORE THE TURN OCCURS…AND
WITH THE CURRENT MOTION THIS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED
ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION…CALLING FOR THE CENTER TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD AND PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CABO SAN LUCAS AREA IN
ABOUT 12 HRS. AFTER THAT…THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY
WESTWARD UNTIL IT DISSIPATES. THE NEW TRACK IS JUST NORTH OF THE
CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
PATRICIA REMAINS IN A LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER
WARM WATER. THUS…THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF A CONVECTIVE
FLARE-UP LATER TONIGHT THAT COULD MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY OF THE
STORM. AFTER 12-24 HRS…THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTO THE DRY AIR MASS WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE PATRICIA TO WEAKEN.
THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE…CALLING FOR PATRICIA TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE GLOBAL MODELS ALL SHOW PATRICIA DISSIPATING
IN 60 HRS OR LESS…SO IF THE CONVECTION DOES NOT COME BACK THE
CYCLONE COULD DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 13/2100Z 22.1N 108.9W 45 KT
12HR VT 14/0600Z 22.7N 109.4W 40 KT
24HR VT 14/1800Z 22.7N 110.6W 35 KT
36HR VT 15/0600Z 22.8N 112.2W 30 KT
48HR VT 15/1800Z 22.9N 114.0W 30 KT
72HR VT 16/1800Z 23.0N 117.5W 25 KT…REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 17/1800Z 23.0N 121.0W 20 KT…REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 18/1800Z…DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Tim, you need to be able to edit comments on this.
Looks like Patricia’s slowing down. Positive sign she’s finally hitting the ridge to the north.