Tropical Depression Patricia is dead in the eyes of the this morning as it moved just 15 miles southeast of Cabo San Lucas.
Weakling.
Parma is just an hour or so from making a landfall about 20 miles south of Hai Phòng as a weak tropical storm.
A new depression in the west Pacific, Twenty-Two, developed last night and is currently about 470 miles east-southeast of Guam.
Here’s what you need to know about the three cyclones
Tropical Storm Patricia
Tropical Depression Patricia is void of deep convection
- Void of convection;
- moving west-northwest at 5kts (6mph or 9kph);
- 25kts (29mph or 46kph) winds;
- 15 miles east-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Baja California peninsula;
- Way, way too much dry air to allow any regeneration;
- Last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center today at 9:00 AM UTC.
Tropical Storm Parma
Tropical Storm Parma just short of landfall near Hai Phong, Vietnam
- Winds at 35kts (40mph or 65kph);
- 10 miles offshore, 25 miles south of Hai Phòng, Vietnam;
- very little deep convection; low-level inflow very limited;
- some areas could receive 6-10 inches of rain;
- Parma should fade over Red River Delta region of Vietnam.
Tropical Depression Twenty-Two (22W)
Tropical Depression Twenty-Two will skim Guam as a tropical storm tomorrow afternoon, UTC
- 30kts (35mph or 56kph) winds, pressure is 1000mb (29.53in), moving west around 13kts (15mph or 24kph);
- Twenty-Two expected to become Lupit as it passes south of Guam midday tomorrow with winds 45kts (52mph or 83kph) to 55kts (63mph or 102kph);
- strong deep convection in the western quadrant near -80°C (-112°F);
- rainfall in Mariana Islands expected to be 4-6 inches;
- QuikSCAT recorded contaminated 40kts (46mph or 74kph) to 50kts (58mph or 93kph) winds under convection;
- Twenty-two is south of low-to-mid-level subtropical ridge and expected to be throughout forecast;
- Poleward outflow expected to increase as Twenty-two passes Guam which will allow further strengthening;
- Cyclone in region of abundant moisture;
- System is beneath anticyclone with 5kts (6mph or 9kph) to 10kts (12mph or 19kph) upper-level winds (shear map).
{ 19 comments… read them below or add one }
You still forgot remnants of Typhoon Melor. San Fran got it bad but other parts of northern CA got it worse. Big time.
Tanqueray, you asked yesterday to be able to edit comments. You may notice that functionality is enabled now.
I’m also working to show HTML coding that can be included in comments. I’ve noticed a couple yesterday that wanted to link to an image but the formatting didn’t come out right so I had to correct it manually. Hoping to find a fix today.
heard this morning quarter-million w/o power
Highest rainfall total is 21.34 inches in Monterey County (Mining Ridge). Highest winds were 87 kts which is about 95mph at Los Gatos.
Preliminary storm report
(this was meant as a reply to Tanqueray’s post – oops)
Also just read at gulfnews.com that Philippine officials expect death tolls from Parma and Ketsana to top 1,000. It’ll be interesting to see if how close 22W (Lupit) comes to Luzon. Can you imagine four strikes from two cyclones within a couple of weeks? Very similar to the Florida hurricane season in 2004 but that was several storms.
so is ur 4cast now that lupit will hit phillipines?
No forecast necessary a week in advance. But, thanks for reading
typhoon center says ridge will pick up 22 from the west. so that would take it into philippines, no?
I saw that earlier and, honestly, if that holds true then I’d expect at least a close brush to N Philippines by yet another typhoon.
The trick to these kind of situations is judging the handoff from one ridge to another. GOES does satellite soundings, but there isn’t enough data to really pick out where one ridge ends and another begins. So, when 22W (Lupit) hits the gap, how long does the system slow? Does it even make it to the forecasted latitudes? So far it’s been traveling slightly south of the forecasts. When the other ridge builds, does it build stronger and push Lupit SSW before W? In which case, Manilla could be see more of a threat.
This isn’t a forecast (wrong-forecast), but these are the ideas I’m considering when I look at these type of situations. When I see a situation I analyze the potential scenarios and try to let my gut tell me what will happen. I won’t lie – sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t. With Patricia, yes, I was wrong and it didn’t go inland to the Mexico mainland. But, technically, the NHC wasn’t correct either. We were both right up to the point of dissipation.
None of that matters. My focus on the site continues to be to write about the storms, what is forecast of them and what are the potential scenarios.
Parma is dead!!!
funny, i didn’t see a forecast
Are we done with the Atlantic season? What are yalls thoughts?
Seems so…shear is story of season and won’t let up long enough imho
Typical Tropical Storm Formation Points in Late October – Max Mayfield … http://tinyurl.com/ylh8p9n
I think two more storms. May not be big cause of sheer but I woldn’t be surprised if one finally caught us off guard and hit fl from gulf. Seems to be the norm for this time of year
That seems to be the average forecast from what I’ve seen. We just passed the traditional 2nd peak of the hurricane season – Oct 10.
its done. i agree with MJ (nice retirement speech, btw, MJ)
12 NASA hurricane photos from space (http://tinyurl.com/ylac7q3):
At first it looks like downtown staring up at buildings. very odd