The trick to these kind of situations is judging the handoff from one ridge to another. GOES does satellite soundings, but there isn’t enough data to really pick out where one ridge ends and another begins. So, when 22W (Lupit) hits the gap, how long does the system slow? Does it even make it to the forecasted latitudes? So far it’s been traveling slightly south of the forecasts. When the other ridge builds, does it build stronger and push Lupit SSW before W? In which case, Manilla could be see more of a threat.

This isn’t a forecast (wrong-forecast), but these are the ideas I’m considering when I look at these type of situations. When I see a situation I analyze the potential scenarios and try to let my gut tell me what will happen. I won’t lie – sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t. With Patricia, yes, I was wrong and it didn’t go inland to the Mexico mainland. But, technically, the NHC wasn’t correct either. We were both right up to the point of dissipation.

None of that matters. My focus on the site continues to be to write about the storms, what is forecast of them and what are the potential scenarios.