Tropical Storm Lupit may threaten northern Philippines; major hurricane coming

(For more up-to-date info, please read Tomorrows Headline: Major Hurricane Rick and Super Typhoon Lupit.)

Tropical Storm Parma’s landfall yesterday left Tropical Depression 22W the only system in town.  That system has since further strengthened to Tropical Storm Lupit.

Tropical Storm Lupit is the only cyclone on the planet at this time and should remain that way for the next couple of days.

The EMCWF is forecasting the east Pacific wave to develop into a serious hurricane and threaten Baja and Mexico in about a week.  I’ll also get into that.

Tropical Storm Lupit

Quick hits:

• currently 190 miles west-southwest of Guam, 1,430 miles east-southeast of Manilla, Philippines;
• Current sustained winds of 40kts (46mph or 74kph);
• moving west at 23kts (26mph or 43kph).  That is very fast for a tropical cyclone and is why you’re not seeing stronger development for the time being;
• one feeder band wrapping into low level circulation from north;
• good outflow due to upper-level anticyclone and low shear;
• System steered by low-to-mid-level subtropical ridge;
• 15/0600Z Forecast is for system to be handed off from one ridge to another Sunday and Monday, UTC, growing to a major typhoon with sustained winds of 115kts (132mph or 213kph) during that time;
• transfer from one ridge to next, lack of steering flow during transfer, and building 2nd ridge will play significant factors in Lupit’s future movement;
• extremely warm SST’s above 28°C (82°F) along path;
• Lupit’s currently over a pool of 30°C (86°F) SST’s;
• abundance of atmospheric moisture.

The trick with Lupit’s forecast will be the transition from the first ridge to the second.  I can’t recall such a transition where the building second ridge did not force a cyclone to move west-southwesterly for a short period of time.  I’m not saying that will be the case here.  But, I’d be watching out for it.

The significant portion of the forecast is the northwest jog in the middle.  Obviously, if Lupit doesn’t track as far northwesterly as forecast, central Philippines are in danger.  In opposition, if the storm tracks further north than forecast, the Philippines may escape.

Don’t be surprised if Lupit also undergoes intense rapid intensification as seen within the past couple of weeks.  I think Lupit’s issues are its forward speed.  Should that slow which isn’t forecast until tomorrow, I think atmospheric and surface conditions are supportive of rapid intensification.  Lupit should be organized enough to explode perhaps greater than forecast.

Invest 93E

This designation has not been officially assigned, I don’t think.  It likely will be soon.  The NHC gives this system a 30%-50% chance of development over the next 48 hours.

This system is being forecast by the EMCWF, GFS, and CMC into a significant tropical cyclone by mid-next week.  The timing is off on all three as they move the system west and recurve it north around the western edge of a ridge.

Afterwards, the EMCWF takes it into Cabo San Lucas next Saturday (10/24) and mainland Mexico north of Mazatlán the next Sunday (10/25).

Obviously, this will be interesting to watch.  And, it should go without saying this is a ten-day forecast – huge errors are likely and things can change significantly between now and then.

Currently, the wave has good convection, but no organization and certainly no signs of a low-level or surface circulation.  So don’t expect development within the next 24 hours.

However, wind shear is low to moderate over the wave.  SST’s are significantly warm.  And atmospheric moisture is aplenty.  I would suspect by this time tomorrow we’ll be looking at a much better organized tropical system on the verge of being named a depression.