Major Hurricane Rick; Typhoon Lupit

Yesterday I said today’s headline would be “Major Hurricane Rick and Super Typhoon Lupit”.  Typhoon Lupit is not quite a major hurricane at 95kts (109mph or 176kph).  140kts (161mph or 259kph) makes it a super typhoon.

Hurricane Rick’s forecast is taking it towards the central Baja peninsula as of the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.

Typhoon Lupit is struggling but still expected to become a super typhoon and is an extremely dangerous threat to the northern Philippines.

Hurricane Rick

Hurricane Rick is an absolutely classic buzzsaw hurricane.  It is very symmetric and atmospheric conditions are expected to remain favorable for Rick to potentially reach category five status.

Quick Tips:

• current winds 115kts (132mph or 213kph), pressure 948mb (27.99in), moving west-northwest at 10kts (12mph or 19kph);
• Rick moving around periphery of ridge, expected to continue through 5-day forecast period;
• undergoing rapid intensification officially defined as a pressure drop of 42mb in 24 hours;
• forecast takes Rick into central Baja California peninsula as a considerably weaker hurricane with winds at 80kts (92mph or 148kph);
• convective cloud tops in CDO are below -90°C (-130°F);
• eye is 25 miles wide;
• Rick has tropical storm force winds 200 miles wide

Yesterday there was consideration with the model shifts that Rick would not make a north to northwest turn.  That seems to be changing yet again and the models are starting to come into agreement turning the hurricane.  This is generally along the lines of what I wrote a couple of days ago (East Pacific wave trying to become Tropical Depression Twenty-E).

Interests along the Baja Peninsula should pay close attention to Rick and be prepared for potential evacuations going into the later part of next week.

Typhoon Lupit

Quick hits:

• 680 miles E of Manilla, Philippines;
• has begun short-lived northwestward turn at 7kts (8mph or 13kph);
• midlatitude trough to northwest partially eroding storm but this is temporary;
• atmospheric conditions are expected to remain favorable for strengthening and Typhoon Lupit is forecast to make landfall on the northern coast of the Philippines with winds of 130kts (150mph or 241kph);
• convective cloud tops of -80°C (-112°F);
• Lupit has tropical storm force winds approximately 235 miles wide.

Today we’ll find out exactly where Typhoon Lupit makes its turn back to the west and how high in latitude the storm system is at that point.  This will give a much better idea in a more precise forecast landfall.  However, confidence is very high at the responsible forecasting centers.

Side note:  I’m on the road this weekend and have struggled to find a reliable internet connection anywhere which is why this post is shorter than I’d prefer.  I apologize for that.  I will do what i can when I can to continue to monitor both cyclones and try to publish when I can.