I’m posting from my phone using what little data I have available. Please bear with me.
Hurricane Rick is forecast to make landfall near Cabo San Lucas, Baja California peninsula as a major hurricane. However, the type of turn Rick needs to make is very difficult to time and small forecasting errors in the turn could lead to landfall forecast errors of dozens of miles. All in the cone of uncertainty should continue to monitor Rick.
Super Typhoon Lupit is an impressive cyclone. However, my access to data on Lupit is minimal and I have very little to contribute. I do like the forecast but even that one is tricky. I’ll explain why.
Hurricane Rick
Computer forecast models continue to come into good agreement on Hurricane Rick and the counter-clockwise turn that has been discussed several times here.
Rick is still currently moving west-northwest. This should continue through the next 24 to 36 hours before Rick begins making a sharp turn to the north around a mid-level ridge.
As typical in these type of recurves timing is absolutely critical and difficult to forecast. While I don’t disagree with the NHC’s forecast (it’s the same one I called before Rick even developed), we both could still end up being off significantly. A sharper turn and Rick is missing Cabo and hitting south of Mazatlan.
However, a broader turn and Rick could go inland further north – perhaps the south-central Baja Peninsula coast similar to the NHC’s forecast plot yesterday morning.
Regardless, all whom are in the NHC’s “cone of uncertainty” should be prepared to begin making preparations/evacuations beginning tomorrow morning.
Hurricane Rick is not a symmetrical cyclone with the deepest convection in the eastern quadrant. Cloud tops are extensive and cold nearest the eye which is expected in a hurricane packing 180mph winds. Yet, the winds and 906mb pressure do not even come close to making Rick one of the strongest tropical cyclones on record.
Rick is likely to undergo an eyewall replacement cycle which will cause some weakening (last repost had an eye 15 miles wide). However, this alone would not weaken Rick much. SST’s are supportive of a cyclone Rick’s size.
The saving grace would be shear induced from an approaching trough that should elongate Rick northeast to southwest and cause some weakening. In my opinion it seems this may be the reason Rick is lopsided though I have seen no data to support this.
Nonetheless, Rick will still be a major hurricane whenever/wherever it comes ashore.
Some of you may remember Vienna whom posted the other day she was headed to Baja. I’ve been updating Vienna via email but have not heard back from her. As soon as I do I will try and post a comment below.
Super Typhoon Lupit
Super Typhoon Lupit is stuck in a weakness of steering currents which is causing the cyclone to do a counter-clockwise loop in the West Pacific. Thankfully this is not near any land mass.
Lupit is still forecast to resume a westward track across the northern Philippines with landfall in about four days – Thursday. Though I see nothing wrong with the current forecast it could change considerably the longer Lupit meanders. I could very easily see Lupit still being pushed more west-southwest than the current forecast calls for a short period of time.
This is only based on experience and what data I’ve seen and NOT based on any new data within the last 24 hours.
From what I’ve seen on satellite imagery Lupit itself is a very impressive storm. Unfortunately, I cannot pull up advisory details from my phone. I ask if anyone else can do that and post in the comments it would be greatly appreciated.
I will try and post a more detailed observation on Lupit when I return home late tonight; definately tomorrow morning.
