Tropical Storm Rick passed far enough south of Cabo that not even tropical storm-force winds were felt. Those same winds are about 40 miles offshore Mazatlan, Sinaloa, Mexico where Rick is set for landfall around 3PM PDT, 2200 UTC, according to our interactive Tropical Storm Rick tracking chart.
Typhoon Lupit has continued to weaken slightly but is still a category two typhoon with winds of 80kts (92mph or 148kph). Lupit has begun the west-southwest track and it now appears certain there will be landfall along the northern coast of Luzon, Philippines early Friday.
The Caribbean tropical disturbance is not looking any better and may have entered the east Pacific, though I haven’t looked at data to know for sure.
Tropical Storm Rick
Tropical Storm Rick is about 13-14 hours from landfall near Mazatlan, Sinaloa, Mexico
Quick Hits:
- current intensity 55kts (63mph or 102kph), pressure 990mb (29.23in), moving northeast (50°) at 12kts (14mph or 22kph);
- Rick should make landfall at Mazatlan, Sinaloa, Mexico with little weakening prior till then;
- Tropical storm-force winds just a couple of hours from the coast;
- continues to battle wind shear of 25kts (29mph or 46kph);
- SHIPS intensity model expects shear to increase to 37kts (43mph or 69kph) up to landfall;
- Rick void of deep convection due to shear; nonetheless, 21/0506Z TRMM overpass estimates rainfall rates of up to 1IN/hr; eTRAP estimates 8-10 inches of rain to fall within the next 18 hours just inland as Rick comes ashore;
- 21/0149Z QuikScat pass suggests 30kts (35mph or 56kph) winds are just offshore;
- Mazatlan, Sinaloa, as of 21/0948Z, reporting southeast winds (140°) of 24kts (28mph or 44kph) with gusts to 36kts (41mph or 67kph).
The wind shear will not allow Rick to strengthen despite warmer SST’s in the vicinity. The NHC forecasts just minor weakening, 50kts (58mph or 93kph), prior to landfall.
You can get the current and past track, forecast track, current wind radii, and forecast wind radii of Tropical Storm Rick on our interactive hurricane tracking chart.
Typhoon Lupit
Typhoon Lupit is approximately 48 hours from becoming the second typhoon in Luzon, Philippines in as many weeks
Quick Hits:
- 475 miles northeast of Manilla, Philippines, moving west-southwest at 9kts (10mph or 17kph), maximum sustained winds 80kts (92mph or 148kph), pressure 963mb (28.44in);
- tropical storm-force winds extend up to 185 miles from the eye (northwest quadrant), 145 miles in the southeast quadrant;
- 20/2310Z microwave imagery shows circular eyewall broken in the northern quadrant due to dry stable air which entered the cyclone yesterday;
- 21/0504Z Amsre pass shows rainfall rates up to 1IN/hr in the southern eyewall; this is beneath cold convective cloud tops of -80°C (-112°F);
- Typhoon Lupit forecast to make landfall around 23/0600 UTC with winds of 80kts (92mph or 148kph);
- Lupit is being steered west-southwest by a subtropical ridge to the north; another subtropical ridge is forecast to take over steering control in about 72 hours;
- forecast is uncertain due to several recent model runs (NOGAPS, GFDN, GFS) indicating a recurve northward as well as a slowdown.
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center suggests if trends continue in the shift of the NOGAPS, GFDN, GFS then those forecasts will need to be taken more seriously. However, they caution that detailed analysis of upper-level weather patterns shows no reason to change the current forecast as it stands.
A landfall by Lupit along Luzon, Philippines will be the fourth landfall by the second typhoon in two weeks. Typhoon Parma made a first landfall October 3 as a category three. The weakened tropical cyclone then recurved, struck Luzon from the west, exited and recurved again coming ashore as a tropical storm near the forecasted landfall of Lupit.
The Philippines have lost over 840-plus lives due to Typhoon Ketsana and Parma, primarily to flooding. Lupit is most likely to cause similar flooding conditions in the northern parts of the Philippines.
Caribbean tropical disturbance
I will not be writing in detail about Invest 94L in the western Caribbean. Computer forecast models that were calling for development of the system have changed considerably and, in my opinion, are unreliable. Though I think that may change, there is no reason right now to write about a system that is not on the verge of development.
The system remains disorganized though wind shear is moderate and will decrease a bit in about 48 hours or so, according to SHIPS. This could open a window for development.
However, the system is very close to Honduras, if not inland. It actually appears another low has developed in the east Pacific as a result, though I haven’t looked at real data closely. If this is the case, it’s most likely 94L has reformed or moved westward and is no longer a threat in the Caribbean.
Another one bites the dust?
If things change or I see new information that indicates otherwise, I’ll post a write-up around lunch, CDT.
{ 8 comments… read them below or add one }
the link to mazatlan says the pressure was at 989mb at 7am cdt but is at 992mb now. earlier it was at 997mb. but the winds are from the south. why did the pressure drop and rise but the winds havent changed direction?
Because it made landfall, that’s why.
Dr. Masters said Rick came inland around 9 this morning. Really?
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1356
If that’s the case then Rick must be moving about 45mph since the 7am intermediate advisory from the NHC still had it 90 miles offshore.
Satellite pics though do suggest it is over land
I guess so…WTF???
So, what else is on?
Tim, lurker here. Have to admit I thought you were BS when I read your post this morning on the Caribbean wave but I’m reading new blog posts from others I respect saying the same thing – especially about the new low in the East Pacific.
Good job!
It’s funny that so many “enthusiasts” jumped on board the ECMWF and GFS developing this thing when it was so disorganized. I’m not saying it won’t develop later. But, I’m not liking the odds.
Tim, you bit your tongue and looked at the data and you didn’t get sucked in. Good job, mate!