Dramatic change in Lupit; Ricks rains in Texas; Hurricane Neki dangerously close to Hawaii; Caribbean disturbance

In the words of the Galveston National Weather Service:  Let the games begin.

Typhoon Lupit’s forecast track has changed considerably and now the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is thinking the system may miss The Philippines.  But, I’ll tell you why this may not be good news for residents of Luzon.

Tropical Storm Rick fizzled quickly after coming ashore yesterday just north of Mazatlan.  However, Rick’s remnants combined with other upper-level disturbances are dropping tremendous amounts of rain in Texas.  Over 6-inches have fallen just west of Austin.  Parts or all of 16 Texas counties are under a flash-flood warning and this will spread east and north today.

I’m sorry I’ve been ignoring Neki.  That was a pretty impressive hurricane, yesterday.  I’ll give you the latest from Hawaii.

The Caribbean disturbance continues to linger and is looking better, though no models are forecast development.

Can I write about four storms in an hour before my real job?  Let’s see…

Typhoon Lupit

Quick Hits:

• Category one with 65kts (75mph or 120kph), moving just south of due west at 5kts (6mph or 9kph), pressure 974mb (28.76in);
• Lupit has good outflow in all quadrants but lacks deep convection;
• the cyclone is now in an area of weak steering currents;
• a 22/0915Z SSMIS overpass shows the heaviest rains are near the center with rates up to 1IN/hour; no rainfall over the Philippines at the present moment according to the pass;
• the same SSMIS overpass shows a broken circular eyewall with the heaviest convection in the east;
• eTrap 24-hour rainfall forecasts suggest the heaviest rains should stay offshore with perhaps up to 2 inches falling in parts of the Philippines;
• the JTWC is forecasting Lupit to come dangerously close to The Philippines before abruptly turning north, but confidence in this forecast is extremely low;
• the forecast is for some strengthening of Lupit before interaction with The Philippines disrupts inflow causing some weakening to a strong tropical storm;
• Typhoon Lupit is beneath an anticyclone that is helping outflow.  However, it is dry and stable mid-to-upper-level air that is hampering Lupit from further development.

There are two subtropical ridges; one which had been steering it to the west, and a third subtropical ridge to the west.  Neither ridge is currently strong enough near Lupit to cause much movement.

The computer forecast models have gone haywire with Lupit.  The JTWC believes it’s most likely the eastern ridge will start to influence Lupit first, taking the system west-southwest close to Luzon before abruptly turning the typhoon north.  Yet, they are not confident in this.

This is now a game of “wait and see” with dangerous stakes on the line.

Typhoon Lupit will likely do something unexpected similar to what Typhoon Parma did after making its first landfall in Luzon, Philippines a couple of weeks ago.

The worst-case scenario will be for Lupit to continue to approach the Philippines per the latest forecast.  Yet, the eastern ridge does not have an influence on Lupit as currently forecast and the system stalls just offshore.  While this would weaken Lupit, it would not prevent extremely heavy, dangerous rainfall.  The Philippines are saturated from Parma and Typhoon Ketsana.  They cannot handle additional rains and even the slightest rainfalls can cause considerable flash-flooding.

The best-case scenario is Lupit meanders where it currently is or gain some distance between it and The Philippines.  Though this would allow Lupit to strengthen more than currently forecast, the effects on The Philippines would be limited to high surf and tides.

Again, we’ll wait and see.

Hurricane Ricks remnants

The remnants of Hurricane Rick, combined with other upper-level atmospheric features, are moving across Texas.  This morning, over 6 inches of rain have fallen in a south-southwest to north-northeast stretch west of Austin.

Currently, several flash-flood warnings and watches are in effect.

In addition, tight pressure gradients over the southeast Texas gulf coast have caused tidal surges as high as 4-feet flooding Highway 87 on the Bolivar Peninsula.

This atmospheric setup should move off to the northeast throughout the day.  In the meantime, more flooding is expected all across Texas into the Ark-La-Tex region later today in addition to isolated tornadoes.

I’ve been unable to find any significant storm reports of Ricks landfall yesterday.  In addition, I have been unable to confirm any deaths – great news for what once was the third most powerful East Pacific hurricane.

Hurricane Neki

Quick Hits:

• Hurricane Neki is a category three with winds of 105kts (121mph or 194kph), moving north at 10kts (12mph or 19kph), pressure is 960mb (28.35in), eye is 10 miles wide;
• a 22/0515Z overpass showed the eyewall of Neki non-existent in the western quadrant with the strongest convection in the northeastern quadrant of the eywall;
• Hurricane Neki is forecast to turn around the western edge of a high pressure ridge to the east; this path will keep Neki well way from the Hawaiian islands;
• Neki is expected to weaken as it crosses the 27°C (81°F) thermocline tomorrow;
• outflow is good but southwesterly shear has put a stop to any further intensification for good;

Hurricane Neki was visibly more impressive yesterday when it was slightly weaker (winds 100kts (115mph or 185kph)).

Hurricane warnings are in effect for various islands including Nihoa Island, French Frigate Shoals and Maro Reef.

Caribbean disturbance

There continues to be no development of the models I’ve looked at (ECMWF, CMC, GFS, NGP) on the latest runs (the GFS forecasts development of a tropical cyclone in Bahamas early next week – the second time I’ve seen that).

However, convection appears to be getting somewhat better organized in the southwestern Caribbean sea.

The problem is there are two vortices that have generated off of this now-disintegrated front.  The first vortex, the most shallow, is at 850mb altitude in the southwest Caribbean.  The second vortex is in the east Pacific and is deeper from 850mb to 500mb.  It is not vertically stacked which you’d like to see.

Both vortices have good convection and both are under areas of good divergence.

The general consensus is that one will win out and develop.  And, if I had to guess I’d say the east Pacific vortex simply because it is stronger.  But, I’ve not been tracking either vortex so I do not know which one is steering the other – if even.

Wind shear over both vortices is favorable for development though has increased slightly in the last 24 hours.

You can follow the progress on both of these features at UW-CIMSS.

I’ll continue to watch what’s going on and post as necessary.

And, I am late for work.  Oh, well…