No change to category two Typhoon Mirinae’s forecast

For the latest info on Typhoon Mirinae (Satni), see Manilla may be spared the worst despite a direct impact from category two Typhoon Mirinae.

Typhoon Mirinae developed an eye briefly during its rapid intensification phase.  The category two typhoon continues to show impressive organization, has established outflow, and will remain in favorable conditions to support further development.

The official forecast of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center has not changed and Typhoon Mirinae is expected to make landfall along the Luzon island coast of the northern Philippines early Saturday morning, UTC as a major typhoon.

Typhoon Mirinae water vapor image shows a pretty organized cyclone that should only look better

Quick Hits:

• current maximum sustained winds are 85kts (98mph or 157kph) with gusts to 105kts (121mph or 194kph); moving due west (270°) at 15kts (17mph or 28kph); barometric pressure is 959mb (28.32in);
• typhoon-force winds extend only 20 miles from the center in all quadrants; tropical storm-force winds extend up to 100 miles in the northern quadrant, 65 miles in the southern quadrant;
• a SSMI/S overpass this morning at 7:59 AM shows a broken eyewall to the east;
• convective cloud tops as of 28/0857Z are as low as -90°C (-130°F) in a large area right over the center of circulation; the storm is somewhat assymetrical with deeper convection in the northern quadrant;
• the 28/0630Z visible satellite capture shows high cirrus clouds extending from all portions of the CDO;  a 28/0203Z Modis 500km resolution visible image shows an eye which had developed briefly and cloud-waves in the CDO clockwise from the northwest to the southeast; those waves are indicative of high turbulence and shear inside of the system which is typical of strengthening cyclones;
• water vapor imagery captured this morning at 8:57 AM UTC shows Mirinae has two estabished moisture channels to the north and east with the latter being the dominant; this is also verified by a 28/0759z SSMI/S color composite which also shows deep moisture in the western quadrant of the storm and an open eyewall to the east;
• Mirinae is located beneath the western edge of an upper-level anticyclone with light southeasterly shear of 10kts (12mph or 19kph) to 20kts (23mph or 37kph) and has helped maintain southern outflow;
• the Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts Typhoon Mirinae to make landfall along the north central coast of Luzon island in the northern Philippines; Mirinae is expected to be a major typhoon with winds of 105kts (121mph or 194kph); the entire forecast track is most westward;
• the JTWC’s forecast takes Mirinae over extremely warm SSTs as high as 31°C (88°F); Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential values are as high as 100kJ cm-2 – very supportive of rapid intensification (as has already been seen); 26°C (79°F) isotherm ranges from 100 to 130 meters (328 to 426 feet) deep;

It seems now that the trough which is enhancing northern outflow of Typhoon Mirinae will lift out before the typhoon finds the break in the ridge that I was discussing yesterday.  Should that be the case, there should not be much deviation in the current forecast track.

This does not mean for certain that we will see a landfall in the Philippines or that the forecast won’t change.  But the steering flow is expected to pretty much remain intact throughout the forecast with no upper-level features in the vicinity to alter that flow.

Mirinae will go through some outflow changes as the trough lifts out and the ridge re-establishes itself.  However, this should not weaken Mirinae.

I would suspect that if Mirinae can become more balanced (symmetric) with equal convection spread from the center on all sides, along with the development of an eye, Mirinae could also become stronger than currently forecast.

There’s really nothing in the way to stop Mirinae similar to what we saw with Lupit.  Things can change over the next 72-96 hours.  But, as they stand right now, this is shaping to be another devastating blow to Filipinos.