Manilla may be spared the worst despite a direct impact from category two Typhoon Mirinae

Typhoon Mirinae – referred locally as Typhoon Santi (Korean for “Milky Way”) – has continued a west-southwestward track a bit longer than forecast 24 hours ago.  It is now expected Mirinae will pass directly over Manilla, Philippines late tonight, UTC.

Though Manilla is forecast to be in the center of the typhoon early Saturday morning, local time, Manilla may not see as huge an impact as originally feared.  I’ll tell you why.

Quick Hits:

• current winds 85kts (98mph or 157kph), gusts to 105kts (121mph or 194kph); Mirinae is moving west-southwest (260°) at 13kts (15mph or 24kph); pressure 965mb (28.50in);
• Mirinae continues to be caught in the upper-level westerly flow to the south of a ridge and this ridge is expected to persist over Mirinae for the next five days;
• Mirinae is forecast to come ashore in the Philippines around 6:00 PM UTC or 7:00 AM Saturday morning, PHT; Mirinae should strike Jomalig Island, Patnanungan Island and Kabalwa Island before coming inland near Real, Quezon, Philippines; Miriane should pass directly over Manilla, Philippines around 1:00 AM UTC or 2:00 PM PHT, Saturday;
• 30/0457Z SSM/I 85ghz imagery shows a ragged eye with a broken eyewall to the east; intense convection is in the southern quadrant of Mirinae;
• according to a 30/0536Z NOAA-IR image, the eye of Mirinae is embedded in the northeastern side of -70°C (-94°F) cloud tops; cloud tops as cold as -80°C (-112°F) are to the south and east of the eye;
• satellite estimates indicate rainfall rates as much as 1.2 inches/hour in the southern eyewall metioned earlier;
• eTrap rainfall forecast totals for 24 hours indicate as much as 12 to 14 inches of rain can fall along the central Philippines; Manilla is forecast to receive 8 to 10 inches of rain;
• after the Philippines, Mirinae is forecast to come ashore in Vietnam as a tropical storm – that will be discussed in Saturday or Sunday’s post.

Typhoon Mirinae is a disorganized cyclone which has unquestionably prevented it from becoming a category three or a super typhoon as some were afraid.

This disorganization may also spare Manilla a severe blow that was quite possible yesterday.  The most intense energy of the storm is expected, not guaranteed, to pass south of Manilla.  This is not limited to wind energy but moisture, as well.  Though the forecast 8-10 inches of rainfall in Manilla is great and most likely will cause some flooding, it’s certainly better than the 12-15 inches other areas may see.

In addition, areas on the leeward side of mountainous regions (on the opposite side of where wind strikes mountainside) may see heavier rainfall amounts due to uplifting which will increase rainfall rates.

Over the next 12 hours, Mirinae could continue to fluctuate somewhat in strength before landfall.  However, any fluctuations are likely to be weakening.  Even with that, however, weakening will be minor and it’s most likely Typhoon Mirinae will strike as a minimal category two.