Tropical Storm Mirinae made landfall at 6:00PM UTC, 2:00 AM Saturday morning, PHT, in Mauban, Quezon. At that time, the cyclone had sustained winds of 55kts (63mph or 102kph).
It’s too early to say that the Philippines were spared a serious blow. But, reports coming out of the region are not as bad as initially feared. The highest known rainfall totals (that I can find) are just over 5.0in (127.0mm) just south of where Mirinae passed. Reports indicate Manila saw 3.3in (83.8mm) of rain.
Tropical Storm Mirinae is a very disorganized cyclone right now and is expected to weaken more before coming ashore in south Vietnam late Sunday or early Monday, UTC.
Storm Reports
Latest reports according to the Associated Press has seven dead due to flooding.
A 12-year-old girl drowned in Pagsanjan, Laguna due to flash-flooding. Another four died in floodwaters in other regions.
In addition, a man carrying his 1-year-old daughter across a creek in Pililla, Rizal died; the daughter is still missing.
In the Batangas province a bridge collapse resulted in another man and his son missing.
Late last night, Blair reported flooding in Santa Cruz, Laguna. The AP reports that flooding was due to a swollen river that sent residents climbing onto rooftops.
CNN reports Manila only received 3.3in (83.8mm) of rain. Daet, Camarines Norte, which was in the southern quadrant of the typhoone, reportedly received 5.8in (147.3mm) of rain.
Some reports are stating Mirinae is the fourth typhoon to strike the Philippines this month – that is inaccurate. Mirinae is the third typhoon since September when Typhoon Ketsana struke. Typhoon Parma struck in early October.
All three storms have attributed to five landfalls on the islands with Parma accounting for three of those landfalls, two of which while the cyclone was a tropical storm.
The death toll from all three cyclones have reached above 900, though I do not have an exact figure.
Latest on Tropical Storm Mirinae
Quick Hits:
- current winds 55kts (63mph or 102kph), gusts to 80kts (92mph or 148kph), pressure 980mb (28.94in), moving west (270°) at 13kts (15mph or 24kph);
- latest forecast calls for Tropical Storm Mirinae to weaken to at least 45kts (52mph or 83kph) before coming ashore in the Phu Yen Province of Vietnam late Sunday night or early Monday morning, UTC;
- a 31/0821Z NOAA IR image shows the coldest clouds, -70°C (-94°F), remain in the southern quadrant with spotty -80°C (-112°F);
- a 31/0513Z AMSRE 85ghz image shows very ragged deep convection in the southern eyewall and southern quadrant. The convection in the eyewall has likely dissipated since;
- UW-CIMSS shows total precipitable water values in the vicinity of Mirinae very low to the west. This dry air will be a main factor for Mirinae’s lack of intensification throughout its next landfall;
- wind shear, according to UW-CIMSS, is light out of the east; this shear is likely to remain light throughout landfall;
- SSTs will remain warm throughout the forecast track; however, OHC values are small or non-existent;
Tropical Storm Mirinae is expected to remain a weak tropical storm throughout the rest of its life due to vertical wind shear and the dry air to the west of the cyclone. Furthermore, a low-to-mid-level anticyclone over Korea will limit intensification.
Mirinae will continue it’s west to west-southwest track due to the zonal flow of a ridge to the north.
At this point of time, its difficult to predict rainfall amounts for south Vietnam due to the storms structure. Depending on how well the storm reorganizes will weigh heavily in what portions of Vietnam can expect. Tomorrow morning I will focus on that with a better idea of what I see Mirinae do over the next 24 hours.
