Tropical Storm Mirinae should be making landfall in south Vietnam early Monday morning, UTC. Mirinae is expected to create flash-flooding conditions in the mountainous regions but nothing like what was seen in the Philippines.
As if that’s not enough, it appears that yet another tropical cyclone is developing east of the Philippines and should make landfall in about 24 hours. However, the system is not organizing quickly. While it will aggravate the current situation, it doesn’t appear at this time that it should compound flooding beyond what has already been seen this week.
Tropical Storm Mirinae
The death toll from Mirinae has risen to 20 according to an Associated Press article published an hour ago. The same article reports four people are still missing.
I’ve not heard from PHC commenter Blair whom had family in the region, as well as others who have posted here the last few days. For those of you whom have commented or written my privately, our best wishes are with you and your family. Post a comment, publicly or privately that you’re doing well.
Quick Hits:
- maximum sustained winds 40kts (46mph or 74kph), gusts to 50kts (58mph or 93kph); moving west-southwest (260°) at 12kts (14mph or 22kph); pressure 990mb (29.23in);
- the 01/0600Z (Nov. 1, 1:00 AM EST) forecast of Tropical Storm Mirinae by the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) Tokyo to make landfall near Phu Yen Province of Vietnam around 6:00 AM Monday, UTC, 1:00 PM Monday, local time; it is expected Mirinae will be a borderline tropical storm at that time with winds of 35kts (40mph or 65kph);
- a 01/0945Z (Nov. 1, 4:45 AM EST) NOAA IR-color image shows the center is back beneath colder cloud tops of -70°C (-94°F);
- a SSM\I 85ghz image taken at the same time, however, shows limited deep convection mainly just to the east and south of the center of circulation;
- due to the limited convection, rainfall rates estimated by SSMI\S at 01/10:57Z (Nov. 1, 5:57 AM EST) are limited to 5.0in (127.0mm) along the track of Tropical Storm Mirinae; however, as with the case in the Philippines, areas on the windward side of mountainous regions will experience heavier rainfall totals due to uplifting;
- 01/0930Z (Nov. 1, 4:30 AM EST) SSMI\S wind estimates are generally inline with wind radii estimates from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center – 34kts (39mph or 63kph) between 50miles (93km) and 55miles (102km) miles from the center of circulation;
- 01/1130Z (Nov 1, 6:30 AM EST) MTSAT vapor imagery shows dry air surrounding Mirinae; as was the case yesterday, low-to-mid-level-dry air has entered into the system and is preventing the cyclone from any intensification, more visible in previously mentioned SSM\I 85ghz image;
Overall, Tropical Storm Mirinae continues to suffer from vertical wind shear and dry air which is expected to weaken Mirinae even further before landfall.
Invest 97W
I don’t see any text statements that indicate anticipated quick development. So, due to lack of time right now, I’ll only mention this system briefly.
The invest area mentioned is just east of the northern Philippines and the system is organizing on visible imagery.
Microwave imagery shows one band feature on the western side.
Rainfall rates are limited, thankfully, but this could change some before landfall.
The system will become a threat in about 24 hours to the Philippines.
The next name on the list is Nida.
If the system looks more threatening tonight I will post an article tonight, Nov 2, 2:00 AM UTC, Nov. 1, 9:00 PM EST, Nov 2. 10:00 AM PHT.
