Ida near hurricane strength off Nicaragua

Tropical Storm Ida is on the verge of becoming a hurricane – if not, already. However, it is also just hours from coming inland into Nicaragua.

Ida strengthened steadily but impressively yesterday. The storm, however, will have a very difficult time trying to survive the track across Nicaragua and Honduras – similar to Hispaniola, I call this region a hurricane killer.

High mountains in the region is expected to create updrafts leading to heavier rains, so flash-flooding is major concern and some areas can see up to 10 inches of rain.

Focus should not be on where and if Ida will threaten the United States. Too many storms have come here and died. Some that have survived to see water again did not live long after due to the structural damage they have sufffered.

At this point of time, it is a wait and see.

Here are the details of Ida.

Current storm details:

• as of 05/0900Z (3:00 AM CST) Ida was located just north of Corn Islands or 85miles (157km) south of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua;
• Ida has winds of 60kts (69mph or 111kph) with gusts to 75kts (86mph or 139kph); 65kts (75mph or 120kph) makes it a hurricane;
• pressure is 991mb (29.26in);
• Ida is moving northeast (310°)at [phcCnvert unit="kts" value="6"];
• tropical storm-force winds extend as much as 45miles (83km) to the northeast and as little as 20miles (37km) to the southwest;
• the official NHC forecast takes Ida inland today weakening to a very weak tropical depression; as the storm reemerges over the northwestern Caribbean – and this is a big IF – it is expected to slowly strengthen back to tropical storm status.

Current watches and warnings:

• Hurricane watch from Bluefields, Nicaragua to Nicaragua/Honduras border;
• Tropical storm warning for Nicaraguan coast;

Current Weather Conditions:

• Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua has stopped reporting since 04/2200Z (Nov. 4, 4:00 PM CST);
• Bluefields, Nicaragua has also stopped at the same time;
• There have been no ship or buoy reports in the past three hours;

Sea Surface Conditions:

• SSTs are up to 29°C (84°F) along the coast of Nicaragua beneath Ida; the waters in the Gulf of Honduras if Ida should survive are as warm as 31°C (88°F);
• 26°C (79°F) isotherm is extremely shallow along the coast of Nicargua; should Ida survive a track into the Gulf of Honduras (western Caribbean), Ida will have much deeper waters to work with – up to 100m (328ft);
• OHC values are high in the western Caribbean should Ida survive this first landfall;

Satellite Presentation:

• a 05/1015Z (4:15 AM CST) GOES color infrared image shows a CDO mostly in the low -60°C (-76°F) with low -70°C (-94°F) cloud tops located right over the center of circulation (COC);
• Ida has good outflow with feeder bands located mainly in the northeastern quadrant, looking at the 05/1015Z (4:15 AM CST) GOES black and white infrared;
• a 05/0023Z (Nov. 4, 8:23PM CST) SSM\I composite (37GHz) shows very little deep convection with spiral rain bands closing off the COC;
• a 05/0023Z (Nov. 4, 8:23PM CST) SSM\I composite (85GHz) shows those rain bands better defined with the deepest convection just to the north of the COC;
• 05/1045Z (Nov. 5, 4:45 AM CST) water vapor imagery shows deep moisture content in the upper-levels over the center of the system and in bands to the north;

Rainfall:

• the best satellite rainfall estimates I can find not older than 12 hours is a 04/2153Z (Nov. 4, 3:53 PM CST) TRMM pass which showed just over 0.5in (12.7mm) per hour;
• a 05/0600Z eTrap rainfall forecast for 18 hours anticipates up to 10.0in (254.0mm) particularly in the southeastern and northwestern parts of Atlantico Norte due to strong mountain-caused updrafts;

Computer Forecast Models:

• a 05/0000Z UKMET takes the system inland and weakens it over the region;
• the 05/0000Z EMCWF takes the system north offshore of the Honduras/Nicaragua border and then northwest towards Yucatan;
• the 05/0000Z CMC does not show a surface system but shows a 850mb vorticity moving inland inline with the official forecast; that track takes the system over Yucatan and north-northwest across the Gulf of Mexico – it must be noted we have to have a system survive the track across Nicaragua/Honduras and Yucatan; very difficult task;
• the 05/0000Z GFDL continues to develop an intense hurricane while keeping it offshore traveling due north towards western Cuba; in fact, this is the only model that not only takes that path but develops Ida to a category five hurricane. Being that Ida is fixing to come inland, it is safe to discount this model at this time;
• the 05/0600Z HWRF takes Ida into Nicaragua/Honduras and then shows a struggling cyclone moving towards the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. This is not an unreasonable forecast and is possible;
• the 05/0600Z GFS takes Ida on the same path as the HWRF for the first 24 hours, redevelops a center south of western Cuba and swinging it back towards the Yucatan Peninsula before turning northeast; while this is not impossible, I like how the GFS tries to anticipate redevelopment – I suppose its possible;
• the remaining track guidance is spread all throughout from western Cuba to a track across Guatemala and southern Mexico;
• intensity guidance either strengthens or weakens due to anticipated landfalls (or lack thereof); the GFDI’s partnership with the GFDL leads it to be the major outlier and, as such, I believe should be discredited

What are your thoughts on Ida? Do you know of anyone in the area preparing for the storm? Post your comments below.

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3. Ida is traveling unchartered territory
4. Hurricane Ike now moving north-northwest
5. Hurricane Dean Targeting Jamaica