Really quickly, I wanted to write about what we have seen in the past with storms taking tracks very similar to Tropical Storm Ida.
Using, NOAA’s Hurricane Query tool I found six storms that made landfall in the same vicinity as Ida, from October to December, in order of date:
- Hurricane Not Named
- Tropical Storm Not Named
- Tropical Storm Not Named
- Tropical Storm Katrina
- Hurricane Michelle
- Hurricane Beta
In 1994, Hurricane Gordon came close but never came inland and thus has been eliminated from this list.
The 1906 Unnamed hurricane (which had a very odd path, btw) came inland as a category three hurricane and exited into the Gulf of Honduras as a minimal hurricane. It strengthened slightly – 70kts (81mph or 130kph) before coming inland again near Belize.
The 1933 Unnamed tropical storm came inland moving due west as a minimal storm and dissipated shortly after.
The 1940 Unnamed tropical storm struck as a weak tropical storm and maintained that intensity throughout an entry into the western Caribbean and a second landfall over the Yucatan Peninsula.
Tropical Storm Katrina made landfall as a weak tropical storm and reemerged in the Caribbean as a depression, never strengthening before final landfall in Yucatan.
Hurricane Michelle spent very little time over Nicaragua before taking off to the north.
Hurricane Beta came in moving due west and dissipated over western Nicaragua.
Of the six cyclones, Ida is not expected to follow any similar paths. Katrina and the 1940 storm is worth researching, but they went further inland. Both of these storms entered the western Caribbean as minimal tropical storms and neither recouped much prior to landfall in the Yucatan.
The difference here will be Ida will not spend quite as much time over Nicaragua or Honduras and could hit the Caribbean as a weak to moderate tropical storm.
I still think the structure will be disrupted particularly where from westerly inflow. However, if Ida isn’t hurt too bad, the system could find itself in a position to exploit some very rich untapped energy.
We’ll see.
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