Tropical Storm Ida is assymetric but in favorable conditions to strengthen

I’m 0-2 with forecasting Ida’s development/redevelopment.

It didn’t help Ida got back into the western Caribbean faster than I or the NHC though (about about 6 hours).  That’s no excuse.

I got an email yesterday from several people asking why I was trying to make a comparison between Ida and Hurricane Isidore – two storms that had nothing in common.

The point I thought I was making was how the region can disrupt a storms interior structure – a point I had tried to make a couple of days ago.

The latest error in judgement came because I thought Ida’s low-level circulation would be disrupted enough that it would take a while for it to redevelop and, therefore, have limited time over the extremely favorable Caribbean sea surface conditions.

Seeing those things occur is one thing.  Trying to anticipate it is another.  Some called me a downcaster – expecting less from a cyclone than others expect.  Well, I’ve been called a wishcaster (expecting greater than normal from a cyclone), too.

I’m neither.  And those who read here on a regular basis know this.  I look at the data, provide the data I see, provide the ideas behind the National Hurricane Center (or the appropriate governing facility whether it be the CPHC or RSMC) and then I provide my thoughts.

I don’t do this to make a name for myself.  I do it to educate.  Most who read this want the latest info.  I give that to them.  Many who read want to know why.  I give that to them.  Some who read want to know more than what the NHC provides in their regular advisories.  I give that to them.

I write because I want to explain the possibilities and what’s reasonable.  My two errors were reasonable errors.  So, they were wrong.  The NHC was on the right track and I’ll give them credit.  But, if you’ve been reading you’ll know I’ve always been telling you what they say.

The point is, when you read my articles, you’re prepared for every possible situation.  Because the NHC will be wrong on a number of occasions throughout the hurricane season.

But, if you read Personal Hurricane Center.com regularly, then you cannot say you weren’t prepared.  Whether you are in the path of a hurricane or just want to know what one is doing – I give you the knowledge and the tools to make those judgements.

And, for the record, I’ve had my good moments – most recently with Typhoon Lupit and Hurricane Rick (with Rick, I told you what it was going to do before the National Hurricane Center even initiated advisories).

So, if you want to write and tell me I’m missing something or that I’m misinterpreting data, feel free.  I don’t mind criticism.

But, don’t pop in here, read one article, see that it’s wrong and assume I know nothing of what I’m talking about and forget about me and this website.  If you’re going to do that, drop the NHC website from your favorites list, too.

Everyone will get it wrong at one point or another.  That’s why I write everyday and follow every single storm.  And, just as the NHC, JTWC, RSMC, CPHC and all others who track and issue forecasts on a regular basis, we’ll have our moments.  And we’ll learn from them.

The following storm details are based on data as of 07/1500Z (9:00 AM CST).

Tropical Storm Ida Details

• as of the 07/1500Z (10:00 AM EST) intermediate advisory:
  • Ida was located 250 miles southeast (133°) of Cozumel;
  • moving north (355°) at 8kts (9mph or 15kph);
  • pressure is 997mb (29.44in);
  • winds 50kts (58mph or 93kph); gusts to 60kts (69mph or 111kph);
  • tropical storm-force winds extend 90miles (167km) in the northern quadrant but are limited to 30miles (56km) and 15miles (28km) in the southeast and southwest quadrant, respectively;

Tropical Storm Ida Forecast Path

• Tropical Storm Ida is not forecast to strengthen beyond a strong tropical storm, peaking in 24 hours; however, it should be noted Ida could easily become a minimal hurricane by that point;
• Ida is forecast to pass approximately 50 miles to the east of the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula early tomorrow evening, CST;
• beginning early Monday, CST, Ida should begin tracking more northward;
• at 72 hours, Ida is expected to turn eastward and then southeast at 96 hours;

Current watches and warnings

• Tropical storm warning for:
  • Grand Cayman Island;
  • Punta Allen north to San Felipe on the Yucatan Peninsula;
  • Pinar Del Rio province, Cuba;
• Hurricane watch for:
  • Tulum, Quintana Roo to Cabo Catoche, Quintana Roo;

Current Weather Conditions

• at 07/1200 (6:00 AM CST), a ship 162miles (300km) north-northeast of Ida reported:
  • east winds of 31kts (36mph or 58kph);
  • 3m (10ft) waves every 5 seconds;
  • pressure of 1010mb (29.83in) and falling;
• Buoy 42057, 150miles (278km) east of Ida, reported (at the same time):
  • southeast winds of 14kts (16mph or 25kph)with gusts to 16kts (18mph or 29kph); ;
  • 5-foot waves every 6 seconds;
  • rising pressure of 1010mb (29.82in);
• Buoy 42056, 158miles (293km) north-northwest of Ida, reported (at the same time):
  • east winds at 19kts (22mph or 36kph) with gusts to 27kts (31mph or 50kph);
  • pressure of 1009mb (29.79in) and rising;
  • 8-foot seas every 7 seconds;

Sea Surface Conditions

• SSTs:
  • Ida is currently over SSTs as warm as 29°C (84°F);
  • off the Yucatan Peninusla, there is a small area up to 31°C (88°F) that the system may pass over;
  • once Ida passes through the Yucatan Channel, SSTs drop to 27°C (81°F);
  • as Ida gets to 28°N latitude, SSTs drop to 26°C (79°F) – minimum typically supportive of tropical cyclones; north of 28°N SSTs drop below 26°C (79°F);
• OHC:
  • Ida is passing just to the west of a very warm pool of high oceanic heat values – as much as 120 kJ cm²;
  • Ida should continue to pass to the west of areas of high OHC values throughout the Caribbean;
  • as Ida enters the Gulf of Mexico, OHC values drop tremendously below 50 kJ cm²;

The waters of the western Caribbean will support Ida to strengthen as much as the cyclone wishes.

As Ida gets into the Gulf of Mexico, however, the waters will not support anything stronger than a category one hurricane.  Strengthen will cease at that point.

Satellite Presentation

• a 07/1138Z (5:38 AM CST) SSMI/S pass (85GHz channel) shows a disorganized area of convection in the northern and eastern quadrant of the cyclone just outside the center of circulation (COC);
• a composite of the above pass shows light moisture content in those same regions;
• a 07/1315Z (7:15 AM CST) GOES-IR color image shows cloud tops as cold as -80°C (-112°F) over and to the north of the center of circulation;
• the CDO is elongated on a southwest to northeast axis with deep bands to the northeast;
• a 07/1315Z GOES visible image reveals high cirrus radiating from the CDO and from the feeder bands stretching across the south of Cuba;

Tropical Storm Ida is well organized at the current time and given upper-level appearances as well as the previously mentioned sea surface conditions, it seems highly likely Ida will become a hurricane before it enters the Gulf of Mexico.

Computer Forecast Models

• EMCWF 07/0000Z (Nov. 6, 6:00 PM CST) – lists a 992mb (29.29in) Ida approximately 100miles (185km) south of the Mississippi Delta in 72 hours; at 96 hours Ida is not on the map and seems to have likely gone inland near Lousiana/Mississippi/Alabama;
• UKMET 07/0000Z – takes Ida north to just south of Pinar Del Rio, Cuba, turns it northwest making a broad clockwise turn before bringing it just south of Pensacola as a 999mb (29.50in) low late Tuesday, UTC; the UKMET then turns the system south and counter-clockwise towards the south Florida Gulf coast;
• CMC 07/0000Z – seems the western outlier taking Ida deep into the Yucatan Peninsula before turning it north towards the Texas/Louisiana border in 72 hours; the remnants of Ida track westward across the southern US before getting into the Atlantic, strengthening and turning south towards the Bahamas; the CMC also forecasts rather strong shear over Ida until 24 hours prior to landfall in Louisiana;
• GFS 07/0600Z (Nov. 7, 12:00 AM CST) – follows the NHC forecast through the northern Gulf of Mexico, but takes Ida inland around the Mobile, Alabama/Pensacola, Florida region in about 72 hours; the GFS also forecasts light shear over Ida throughout landfall in the US;
• GFDL 07/0600Z – develops Ida into a category one hurricane following a very similar path to the NHC’s forecast but faster taking Ida southeast with a landfall in south Florida between Tampa and Naples;
• HWRF 07/0600Z – develops Ida into a category one hurricane taking it pretty much due north into the Florida panhandle;
• other track model guidance as of 07/0000Z varies from bringing Ida up to the Lousiana Gulf coast, turning it south-southwest, to turning it clockwise across the northern Gulf back towards south Florida and Cuba.  A few models take Ida inland around the Mississippi/Alabama/Florida region and take it off towards the northeast;
• intensity guidance, accordingly, strengthens Ida to a minimal hurricane or strong tropical storm before gradual weakening;

The latest NHC forecast follows down the middle of much of Ida’s forecast models.  Intensity forecast is also along the median.

I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if Ida were to become a hurricane again later today.  The only thing stopping Ida at this time is the assymetrical structure of the system.

The interaction with land and having inflow cut off from the mountainous regions of Nicaragua and Honduras as disrupted the southern quadrant of the cyclone and has made the system pretty lopsided – see the wind radii under current details.

Ida can recover from this.  The favorable aspect in the sense of the cyclone’s development is that it is small and can grow quickly (unlike larger storms like Hurricane Ike).

As far as the forecast goes, this will be one that could potentially high-error for the NHC and anyone else who makes this attempt.  Timing will come down to the trough currently off the eastern seaboard vacating and being replaced by a high pressure ridge.

Those timing issues could mean Ida could make it’s eastward turn as much as 12 hours early.  It could also come 12 hours later.

Because of those uncertainties and Ida’s expected close proximity to land at that time, I would suspect the NHC will coordinate with state officials in the southeast United States and have watches or warnings posted as early as tomorrow afternoon.

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3. Ignacio to Weaken, 92L to Strengthen
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