The National Hurricane Center keeps Ida coming inland as a category one hurricane near Pensacola, Florida early Tuesday morning, local time.
Ida is being hammered by strong upper-level wind shear. The system is vertically tilted and, though there is good convection around the center of circulation and in a feeder band to the east, Ida lacks depth. This, due to sea surface conditions, leads me to think the HWRF model output may be most appropriate – agreeing with the NHC’s landfall point but bringing it in as a strong tropical storm.
Tight pressure gradients between Ida, a western Gulf low and a Florida high pressure ridge will create gale conditions not directly associated with Ida for much of the Gulf coast.
Ida will be the first hurricane to make landfall in the United States, this year. The only other storm to hit the US was Tropical Storm Claudette, which also came into the Florida panhandle (I think in August).
The impact of Ida, it is hoped by many including myself, is that regardless of how inactive a hurricane season is, it is never over until it’s over. And, really, though the bulk of cyclonic activity in the Atlantic is confined between the months of June and November, there have been several storms that have developed in December, January and into April.
Bottom line is: it’s never really over. And, hopefully, all residents in the Florida panhandle, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama are prepared.
If you live in the northern Gulf coast, how are you preparing for the storm? Feel free to drop a comment.
Now, onto Ida’s details…
The following storm details are based on data and conditions obtained between 4:30 AM and 5:30 AM CST, including the 09/09Z National Hurricane Center advisory package.
Hurricane Ida Details
- as of 09/0900Z (3:00 AM CST):
- located 375 miles south of Pensacola, FL;
- moving north-northwest (335°) at 14kts (16mph or 26kph);
- winds are 80kts (92mph or 148kph) with gusts to 100kts (115mph or 185kph);
- pressure is 988mb (29.18in);
- tropical storm-force winds extend up to 175 miles to the northeast and as little as 45 miles to the southwest;
- hurricane-force winds extend 30 miles to the northeast and as much as 10 miles in the south;
Hurricane Ida Forecast Path
- Hurricane Ida is forecast (as of 09/0900Z – 3:00 AM CST) to weaken slightly before coming ashore near Pensacola, FL as a minmal hurricane;
- landfall is expected around 10/0900Z or 3:00 AM CST Tuesday morning;
- afterwards, Ida is expected to weaken and become extratropical or dissipate over southern Georgia early Wednesday morning, CST.
Current watches and warnings
As of 9:00 UTC, 3:00 AM CST:
- Tropical Storm Warning:
- Grand Isle, LA to west of Pascagoula, MS including Lake Pontchartrain and New Orleans, LA;
- Indian Pass, FL to Aucilla River, FL;
- Hurricane Watch:
- Grand Isle, LA to west of Pascagoula, MS including Lake Pontchartrain and New Orleans, LA;
- Hurricane Warning:
- Pascagoula, MS to Indian Pass, FL;
Current Weather Conditions
The following are the most recent surface conditions obtained in the past three hours within 150miles (278km) from Hurricane Ida’s 09/0900Z position, 25.1°N, 87.9°W:
| Station | Time | Location | Pressure | Wind | Waves | Air Temp | Sea Temp | Dewpoint |
| 42001 | 3:50 AM CST | 107nm WNW (297°) | 1007mb (29.73in) | E (70°) @ 21kts (25mph or 40kph), gusts 27kts (31mph or 50kph) | 17ft @ 11 sec | 26°C (79°F) | 27°C (80°F) | N/A |
| 42003 | 3:50 AM CST | 136nm E (67°) | 1006mb (29.72in) | E (90°) @ 35kts (40mph or 65kph), gust 43kts (49mph or 79kph) | 21ft @ 10 sec | 24°C (75°F) | 27°C (80°F) | N/A |
Notice both stations are reporting east winds? 42001 should be reporting northerly winds (typically – I’m not saying there’s an error). The reason it is reporting east winds is due to a low in the western Gulf that is helping steer Ida inland early tomorrow. These two features, as well as a ridge to the east of Ida are going to create gale conditions (tropical storm conditions without the tropical storm) along much of the Gulf coast the next couple of days.
Sea Surface Conditions
Sea surface temps are supportive of Ida – 26°C (79°F). Ida will be moving over subtropical waters the last 12 or so hours prior to landfall which will induce weakening.
Satellite Presentation
- GOES color IR as of 09/1015Z (4:15 AM CST) shows very little in the way of cold cloud tops with much of the clouds extending from the center of circulation (COC) to the northeast;
- AMSRE rainfall rates as of 09/0751Z (1:51 AM CST) shows many areas with nearly 1 inch of rain per hour with a feeder band packing rain rates of up to 1.2 inches/hour;
- eTrap 24-hour rainfall estimates, as of 09/0600Z (12:00 AM CST) forecast as much as 10 inches of rain near where the center passes;
- the previously mentioned AMSRE pass also returned a 85GHz color image showing intense convection wrapped from the west to the north around the COC and in a feeder band to the east;
- the color composite of the AMSRE pass (37GHz) also showed some dark pinks to the west of the COC – something I had not seen previously in Ida; however, it should not be misinterpreted as strengthening;
The hurricane reconnaissance found the flight-level center displaced to the north of the low-level circulation. This is due to the wind shear I discuss below.
That Ida is not vertically stacked as previously indicates the storm is likely to continue to weaken prior to landfall. Though the NHC forecasts Ida to still be a minimal hurricane before landfall, it is quite likely Ida will weaken to a strong tropical storm as the interior structure becomes further disrupted.
Atmospheric Conditions
- UW-CIMSS, as of 09/0900Z (3:00 AM CST), is reporting 30kts (35mph or 56kph) wind shear over Ida; Ida will move under 40kts (46mph or 74kph) wind shear the last six hours or so prior to landfall;
- southwesterly mid-level shear is as much as 30kts (35mph or 56kph) in the eastern quadrant;
Computer Forecast Models
- CMC 09/0000Z (Nov. 8, 6:00 PM CST) – one of the western outliers, the CMC takes Ida north towards the New Orleans region, but not making landfall it doesn’t seem. Instead, the CMC seems to decouple the system or merge it with the low in the western Gulf. One 850mb low turns eastward into Florida while the other runs south in the Gulf of Mexico.
- GFS 09/0600Z (12:00 AM CST) – the GFS takes Ida inland a bit west of the NHC’s forecast – around the Louisiana/Mississippi border at the 24-hour period; afterwards, Ida becomes absorbed in a frontal trough with part of the remnants going across Florida and the other part off to the northeast;
- GFDL 09/0000Z – follows pretty much inline with the latest NHC forecast in regards to track and intensity;
- HWRF 09/0000Z – same as the GFDL though not as strong, bringing Ida inland as a strong tropical storm;
- much of the intensity guidance indicates weakening from this point forward even prior to landfall; a couple expect strengthening prior to landfall but that just isn’t going to happen given all the elements;
Related posts:
- Hurricane Ida expected to come inland into Florida as a transitioning extratropical cyclone
- Tropical Storm Hanna expected to glance Florida before nailing South Carolina
- Tropical Storm Gustav expected to become a hurricane soon as it nears Cuba
- Tropical Storm Rick to come inland this afternoon; No changes in Lupit; Caribbean blah
- Tropical Storm Lupit to pass well ofshore Japan tomorrow
