Hurricane Gustav lost a little bit of strength as it passed across the western tip of Cuba. The eye structure filled in and the central dense overcast shrunk as cloud tops warmed slightly. However, the hurricane was still a significant category four and is expected to remain so as it moves northwest across the Gulf of Mexico.
Hurricane Gustav Forecast and Wind Field - Aug 31 2008 0300 UTC
Our PHC Forecast and Wind Radii plotter shows New Orleans is still well within expected hurricane conditions come Monday night. This along with the angle Gustav is expected to take into the shoreline is likely to provide a significant test to the region as storm surge in excess of 25 feet can be expected across southeast Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.
Evacuations have already begun and are mandatory across southeast Texas and Louisiana. Residents are fleeing any way they can; trips taking twice as long as normal due to the heavy volume of traffic. Hundreds of gas stations across the region have run out of inventory.
Many of those same residents are choosing to evacuate to Houston. This is a highly interesting scenario as though most of the computer models are in excellent agreement on the landfall location, they are also in good agreement on a westward turn. Houston residents had a horrible time trying to evacuate during Hurricane Rita in 2005. With a temporary, but significant increase in population and a sudden, earlier change of direction, that could turn out itself to be a remarkable scene.
Watching the news today it is easy to relieve those days just over three years ago when Hurricane Katrina struck New Orleans. The only player not present is former Louisiana Governor Kathleen Blanco. It is amazing to think of the idea that a major metropolitan area could possibly be struck by devastating hurricanes in such a short time span. Across the city the common voice is that of normalcy that has yet to be achieved. To go through this again, is it possible that normalcy will ever exist in The Big Easy?
But, I digress. The southern Keys of Florida are reporting winds around 35mph with gusts up to 50mph. There were some reports of tornadoes earlier, though none confirmed yet. The islands should have breezy hours ahead but rain has dissipated significantly in Gustav’s southeast quadrant.
Hurricane Gustav will likely regain some intensity as it moves across some very warm waters in the southeastern Gulf. After that point, there are large areas where water temperatures are closer to normal. Gustav is likely to lose a little bit of intensity, though could still remain a category four hurricane. Not to mention the occasional eyewall replacement cycles the system is bound to go through that will cause additional fluctuations of intensity.
