Twelve years, three months, 21 days and 14 hours ago, Hurricane Danny made landfall at Fort Morgan, Alabama at the mouth of Mobile Bay.
Danny was the last category one hurricane to strike stretch of coastline (within 65 miles of Ida’s forecasted landfall.
Danny was a little stronger than Ida with winds of 70kts (81mph or 130kph) and a central pressure of 985mb (29.09in).
Another significant difference was that Danny moved 1/3 as slow as Ida; 6kts (7mph or 11kph).
Danny was smaller than Ida by up to 75 miles – tropical storm-force winds extended up to 100 miles from the center.
There are other scientific factors that would come into play when comparing the two storms such as tides. But, I thought it’d still help give an idea of what to expect from Ida by looking at Danny. My only regret is not thinking of this earlier but, oh well.
Hurricane Danny struck Alabama July 19, 2007. The slow forward movement of the hurricane dropped nearly 38 inches of rain in southern Alabama.
Ida’s faster movement will allow 1/3 of that total, forecasters believe.
Danny created a 6.5-foot storm surge between Gulf Shores, AL and Fort Walton. In Mobile Bay, the consistent northerly winds as the hurricane passed created tides 2-feet below normal. The highest storm tides occurred, of course, at and just to the east of where Danny’s center came ashore
These tides are forecast for Ida, also. In fact, while tropical storm-force winds are just now coming ashore in southern Alabama and Mississippi, tidal surges of 2-3 feet above normal are already being reported, according to the Mobile NWS office.
According to the preliminary report for Hurricane Danny, the American Insurance Services Group estimated combined losses around $60 MILLION USD while the NHC estimated losses as much as $100 MILLION USD. That includes Danny’s flooding damages created as the storm passed through the mid-Atlantic region.
Is it reasonable to expect similar circumstances from Ida? I don’t think so due to the simple fact Danny moved much slower. If Ida were moving slower or Danny moved faster, I’d say expectations would fall more inline even though Danny was smaller and more intense.
But, just because Danny was moving a third the speed of Ida doesn’t mean damages, flooding and surges will be a third less, either. Rainfall totals will certainly be less. But, surges are the number one killers in hurricanes.
There were no deaths directly attributable to surge from Danny. Hopefully, Ida will share that in common.
Read more about Hurricane Danny at Wikipedia.org.
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