First, my apologies for not writing for quite a while. I’ve been working on a preliminary report for Ida. But, other than that, other things have taken precedence. I hope to have the Ida report soon but with the holidays this week, who knows?
I wanted to write today about several cyclones running the globe. I started with one developing in the South China Sea. Unfortunately, again, things have come up I’m unable to write in detail about the other system. However, I will have those write-ups tomorrow. Please, stay tuned.
An area designated Invest 96W is getting better organized. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) for this area of disturbance located in the southern South China Sea. A TCFA means a tropical cyclone is likely to develop within the next 24 hours. The JTWC lists the chances of development as good – the highest possible.
The system is about 310miles (574km) northeast (47°) of Singapore moving north-northeast.
Details
- As of 11:00 AM UTC, Invest 96W is currently located near 4.5°N, 107.2°W.
- Estimated winds 15kts (17mph or 28kph) to 20kts (23mph or 37kph).
- moving NNE at 9kts (10mph or 17kph).
- pressure is estimated at 1005mb (29.68in).
Sea Surface Conditions
- Hurricane heat potential (HHP) is limited in the region with values up to 60 kJ cm2.
- SSTs in the region are around 28°C (82°F). Those SSTs cool further north towards the southern Vietnam coast.
Satellite Presentation
- a 23/2001Z IR color image shows some high, cold cloud tops isolated to the east of the center of circulation;
- a 23/1055Z SSMI pass (85GHz) image showed the deeper convection in a spiral band to the north;
- at 23/1149Z, SSMI\S – 36GHz color imagery showed some moderate moisture content in the same spiral band but broken;
Atmospheric Conditions
- Wind shear is moderate in the region with an upper-level anticyclone located just to the east of the storm system;
- total precipitable water values are high in the region and should remain that way for much of the storm’s life;
