Typhoon Nida a threat only to mariners. For now.

Typhoon Nida is a minimal typhoon located about 200 miles south of Guam.  Nida is currently moving towards the northeast around 10 knots.

Nida is not expected to be a significant threat to land throughout the next five days.

There is some question on the overall forecast as increasing wind shear and a possible cold surge from the north can weaken the system further than forecast.  If that is the case, Nida may turn towards the west and, perhaps, the southwest as forecast by several computer models.

Ultimately, this will depend on if Nida becomes a low-to-mid-level circulation later in the forecast period or if the system can still maintain some depth despite the conditions.  The official forecast calls for the latter scenario and a continuous push towards the northwest over the five-day period.

Typhoon Nida Details

• As of 24/2100Z (Nov. 24, 9:00PM UTC), Nida was positioned at 9.9°N, 144.2°E,  or 233miles (432km) south of Guam.
• Winds are 75kts (86mph or 139kph), gusts to 90kts (104mph or 167kph).
• Nida is moving northeast (305°) at 10kts (12mph or 19kph).
• Typhoon-force winds extend 15miles (28km); storm-force winds extend up to 75miles (139km).
• Barometric pressure is 970mb (28.64in).
• Eye is 20miles (37km) wide.

Typhoon Nida Forecast Path

• The 24/2100Z forecast takes Nida generally northwest through the next five-day period with its closest approach to Guam tomorrow morning, UTC.
• Nida is forecast to strengthen gradually to late Friday, peaking with 110kts (127mph or 204kph) winds before slowly weakening to a category two typhoon.

Typhoon Nida Watches and Warnings

• A high surf advisory is in effect for the Marianas islands until 6PM CHST Friday.

Current Weather Conditions

• There are no observations within 200 miles of Nida.
• Apra Harbor, Guam,  214miles (396km) north (7°) of Nida reported in the last hour (Nov. 25, 12:30 UTC) easterly winds (100°) at 14kts (16mph or 26kph) with gusts to 25kts (29mph or 46kph). Pressure has risen to 1005mb (29.69in).

Sea Surface Conditions

• Typhoon Nida is currently located over SST’s near 29°C (84°F).  SST’s will gradually cool throughout the five-day forecast period but are still supportive of maintaining a tropical cyclone.
• Heat potential values are currently near 100kJ cm². Those values will drop to around 70kJ cm² as Nida passes through Thursday (UTC)and below 50kJ cm² at the end of the five-day forecast period.

Satellite Presentation

• A 24/1553Z AMSU (85GHz) image shows deep convection in the southwest eyewall, open to the northeast.
• A 24/2332Z GMS-6 IR color image shows higher cloud tops – in excess of -80°C (-112°F) – primarily in the eastern quadrant.  However, Nida is exhibiting great symmetry with a developing spiral band in the southwestern quadrant.
• A 24/1955Z SSMI/S color composite (37GHz) shows decent convection throughout the system and in the feeder band.
• A 24/2332Z GMS-6 water vapor image reveals significant upper-level moisture content.  It appears Nida may be tapped into an east-west moisture stream with additional deep level moisture.

Atmospheric Conditions

• Typhoon Nida is located to the south of a mid-level ridge that should persist throughout the forecast period.
• Wind shear is light, 5kts (6mph or 9kph), but is forecast to pick up to 25kts (29mph or 46kph) towards the latter part of the forecast period.