Cyclone Watches and Warnings have been issued for parts of northwestern Australia late Wednesday, WST, as Tropical Cyclone Magda continues to show signs of development. TC Magda is approximately 245miles (454km) north-northwest of Cockatoo Island, moving south-southeast around .
The Tropical Cyclone Warning Center in Perth says the cyclone has a significant chance of becomeing a Severe Tropical Cyclone as it approaches the Kimberley coast this weekend. Forecasted wind speeds are expected near 85kts (98mph or 157kph). A Severe Tropical Cyclone is that of a category three or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.
Current details of the TC Magda (as of 13:11 – 1:11 PM – UTC, Jan 20, 2010) :
- located at 12.5°S, 122.2°E;
- winds at 30kts (35mph or 56kph);
- wind gusts near 45kts (52mph or 83kph);
- pressure 998mb (29.47in);
Tropical Cyclone Magda - MTSAT IR - Jan 20, 2010 11:30Z
TC Magda is approximately 137miles (254km).
Perth reports the cyclone is showing banding features in recent satellite imagery. In addition, the cyclone is in a low shear environment with warm waters in excess of 30°C (86°F). Both conditions are ideal for rapid intensification.
Computer forecast models are having issues with a complex steering flow leading to a larger degree of uncertainty. Some models call for the cyclone to not strengthen as much while traveling more easterly towards the northern Kimberly coast. Currently, the official forecast takes the cyclone near Kuri Bay late Friday night.
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