Hurricane Alex has long dissipated after making landfall along the northern Mexico Gulf Coast. However, as residents continue to clean up from flooding and wind damage, another system could be brewing in the Gulf of Mexico and take a nearly identical path to Hurricane Alex. Invest 96L is currently given 20% chance of development within the next 48 hours. However, conditions are optimal for potentially the second storm of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season.
Invest 96L is currently in a region of moderate wind shear 10kts (12mph or 19kph) to 15kts (17mph or 28kph). An upper-level anticyclone sits elongated on an east-to-west axis over northern Latin America putting the Caribbean disturbance on the northeastern side. Beyond the shear, all other conditions are favorable with very warm SST‘s and OHC values between the disturbance and the Yucatan Peninsula.
So far, only the EMCWF – by far, the best performing model during Alex – seems reasonable with the system. While the CMC is forecasting development, it is pulling the same trigger it did with Alex – that is, strengthening into a hurricane and driving straight north into the southern Gulf Coast states. The EMCWF takes a considerably more westward approach taking a weak low pressure area into the central Mexico Gulf Coast between Veracruz and Tampico. That’s the same rabbit it pulled out of the hat for Alex at this stage of development. The GFS fails to initialize the system.
It should be at least 48 hours before anything develops of Invest 96L. But the system should find itself in a break between high pressure ridges which, along with low shear, should allow from some development and then a general track similar to that of Alex’s; perhaps, even a bit further south.
In addition to 96L, the National Hurricane Center is also watching Invest 95L in the north-central Gulf of Mexico – yes, over the Deepwater Horizon accident. However, shear is strong and the disturbance should move inland into Louisiana tomorrow and is not a concern for development.
Another area of interest is developing off the southeastern United States. Non-coincidentally, this system spun off the same remnant cold front as did Invest 95L. And, typically, June and July (along with October and November) are months when we see hybrid development from split-troughs off the southeast United States and in the Gulf of Mexico. It’s too early to tell at this point if this disturbance develops as none of the reliable models are indicating so.
