Hurricane Gustav is holding steady as a category three hurricane moving rapidly across the central Gulf of Mexico. The latest forecast track (below) from the National Hurricane Center is not much of a change from earlier. The more important note seems that, according to the forecasted wind field at time of landfall, New Orleans will be on the edge of hurricane-force winds.
Hurricane Gustav Forecast and Wind Field - Aug 31 2008 - 2100 UTC
This certainly does not mean New Orleans is not under a significant threat. Flooding from heavy rains and potential storm surge are still a strong possibility. But it’s looking more likely New Orleans will not see the strong winds that was seen during Hurricane Katrina.
After landfall there is not much change either. Though many forecast models call for Gustav, or the remnants, to move west well inland and potentially south. Some are so bold as to bring a remant low back into the Gulf of Mexico. However unlikely that may sound to you, remember Hurricane Ivan in 2004 made an even bolder track of regaining tropical storm status days after it’s initial landfall in Alabama. In the meantime flooding will be a major concern to residents inland as Gustav is likely to continue a stream of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, thus dropping tens of inches of rains across hundreds of square miles in Louisiana and Texas.
