Here we go again.  Only, instead of winds not matching pressure, we seem to have pressure not matching winds.

Again, pressure drives wind.  End of subject!

Kyle’s winds should not be brought into question this time.  The recon found 80kt flight level winds.  Subtract the typical 10% for surface winds and you have about 70kts, 5kts higher than minimal hurricane force.

Fine!

Pressure…995mb? Are you kidding me?

Am I saying the National Hurricane Center is lying?  No.  Am I saying the reconnaissance is?  No.

But, let’s get real here.  If the National Hurricane Center were simply using extrapolated pressure based of satellite imagery or nearby ship observations, and based upon other factors, I don’t see how a value of 995mb can be reached.  995mb central pressure does not equate to 70mph surface winds 40 nautical miles from the center fix.

I did a little research.  I retrieved all advisories between 1997 and 2007 where the barometric pressure was between 990mb and 1000mb (this will be available soon on the website, I promise).  834 records were returned with multiple records for the same storms.  I chose prior to this year because this is post-storm analysis, when all records were based upon known data.  I also chose after 1997 to get a good 10-year period of reliable satellite, buoy, ship, surface and recon observations.

Based on that pressure, the minimum wind was 15kts for Hurricane Ivan when the storm was a tropical depression (at the time, classified as a remnant low) over Virginia.  In addition, there were several records of 20kts returned.  The strongest winds were for Hurricane Danielle when the hurricane was north of the Lesser Antilles, well within reach of the reconnaissance.  Here is the data returned:

Note the winds are in knots.

So, as far as storm averages go, we could reasonably expect a storm with 995mb of pressure to have 50kt winds.  The National Hurricane Center says the central pressure values returned by reconnaissance in the “eye” were 995-999mb.  So, we could expect, based on that data and nothing else, the winds of “Hurricane” Kyle to be between 44kts and 50kts, or 40mph to 45mph.

So, does this mean the hurricane-force winds found in Kyle are non-existent.  No, nor am I making that argument.  With Hurricane Hanna, I argued Hanna should’ve been upgraded to a hurricane prior to landfall in North Carolina simply because the barometric pressure was equal to that recorded in the storm earlier when the storm was classified a hurricane by the National Hurricane Center.

Now, we have a storm in the Atlantic, with pressures considerably higher than Hanna at both peaks (a difference of 17mb.  Yet, both storms are recorded as having 70kt winds.

Someone, ANYONE, please explain why?

I would make the argument the reconnaissance simply did not find the precise center.  I do not know why nor how.  But, I will continue to insist you cannot have one without the other.  If a pressure of 980mb is found in a storm, there must be wind somewhere in the system to back up that pressure.  Even if it’s not found, that does not mean it isn’t there.  The same thing holds true for pressure.  If a 70kt wind is found in a storm, there is pressure there to back up that wind.  Even if it is not found.

Is this so difficult to act upon?

I won’t focus much on Tropical Storm Kyle until I get a better idea of where it’s going, if it even survives.  The system is very poorly defined and is on the verge of pulling a Josephine.  However, the weaker system will be influenced by different factors and a track further west than currently forecasted is likely.  Let’s see if the storm can survive the next 24 hours before being so bold.

I do want to talk about what is stirring up quite an argument with what some believe should have been named Kyle and that is the system over North Carolina.

I pointed out the vortex message from yesterday’s reconnaissance (see North Carolina Storm is Not A Tropical Storm) and how the recon found flight level temperatures at 11° C (53.6° F) temps outside the “eye” and 19° C (56.6° F) temps inside the “eye”.  In comparison, look at the most recent vortex message for Kyle:

URNT12 KNHC 262005 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112008
A. 26/19:33:30Z
B. 27 deg 19 min N
068 deg 25 min W
C. NA
D. 35 kt
E. 295 deg 60 nm
F. 089 deg 23 kt
G. 299 deg 80 nm
H. EXTRAP 1003 mb
I. 22 C / 456 m
J. 23 C / 473 m
K. 22 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 1
O. 0.02 / 10 nm
P. AF304 1211A KYLE OB 12 CCA
MAX FL WIND 56 KT NE QUAD 18:06:50Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 35 KT S QUAD 19:53:10Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
MAX FL TEMP 24 C 147 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR

Lines I and J are temps outside and inside the eye.  Comparing the Carolina system to Kyle, the temp difference was 10° C or nearly 20° F degrees warmer in Kyle outside of the eye. Inside the center, Kyle was 4° C warmer or only 7° F warmer than the Carolina storm (23° C versus 19° C).  Clearly, the Carolina system had not made the transition yet was certainly getting there.  You could make the argument the storm was subtropical.  But, note the flight level for these temps was much lower than in the Carolina storm yesterday.

Here is my problem:  Joe Bastardi of Accuweather.com is blasting the National Hurricane Center for not naming the system.  I am not a Bastardi Basher.  But, he’s making a potato/potato argument that simply is a matter of opinion.

It reminds me of the discussion earlier this year on Hurricane Hanna.  I wrote asking how the National Hurricane Center could keep Hanna classified as a tropical storm when the central pressure had dipped back to a previous storm low and the National Hurricane Center called Hanna a hurricane.  Twice in Hanna’s history, the pressure had fallen below 980mb.  The first time, Hanna was called a hurricane.  The second time, a tropical storm.

This is fact!  Pressure drives wind.  Anyone who pays half-attention to most weather forecasts will hear meteorologists discuss tight pressure gradients creating windy conditions.  So, the Joe Bastardi’s of the world can make that argument all day long and I’m right behind them.  I whole heartedly agree!

But, now we’re arguing over a system cooler than Kyle, of different origin than Kyle, and of sharper temperature contrasts than Kyle.  And some are saying this should be Kyle.

Today Bastardi’s laughing that the current reconnaissance mission returned a vortex message posting highest flight level winds were 16kts, that the pressure is now much higher than in the Carolina storm.  Well, Mr. Bastardi, here’s the problem with that laughter:  Earlier in the day (10:30AM EDT post), you forecasted Kyle to be a hurricane:

But I do think from later tomorrow through Sunday, it is a hurricane.

With wind shear forecasted to increase above 25kts and cooler waters ahead of the system, I think a hurricane on Sunday is highly unlikely.  Time will tell.

Nonetheless, it’s almost as if someone is throwing a verbal temper tantrum.  “This other storm should’ve been named but because it wasn’t I’m glad the second system is unimpressive but I think impressive enough to become a hurricane against many odds.”

o…k…

What I like even better is Bastardi’s latest post:

I am not WRONG BECAUSE THE HURRICANE CENTER SAYS SO. I am wrong because the weather says so. No man controls the weather. So why let what anyone says, me or anyone else, rule your thought process if you can go look for yourself?

AND IF YOU DON’T LOOK FOR YOURSELF, IT’S YOUR OWN FAULT… in anything from the weather on up.

Simple… think for yourself if the information is available, which it was.

So, let me get this straight.  The National Hurricane Center says the Carolina storm is NOT a hurricane and because you disagree, you’re going to bash them.  But, yet, tell your readers to think for themselves?

No wonder you’re on Fox News all the time, Joe.  Fair and Balanced…

I’m hearing other arguments as well.  This is a common one:

If anything, the National Hurricane Center should name it so at least the public will pay attention and prepare for storm or hurricane conditions

Ok, that’s it!  I’ve a suggestion!

From now on, whenever a cold front comes through southeast Texas, let’s post Winter Weather Warnings.  BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LIKELY.  OK, NOT LIKELY.  BUT IT’S DAMN COLD IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE.  AND IF IT’S COLD UP THERE IT MIGHT GET COLD DOWN HERE IN SOUTH FREAKING TEXAS!

Hey, don’t knock that idea!  After all, Christmas of 2004 I lived in Corpus Christi when we saw nearly two feet of snow on Christmas Eve!  Talk about a white christmas.  AND IT CAN HAPPEN AGAIN…TOMORROW!

Overkill?  Well, let’s try this.

Houston floods badly.  A small thunderstorm can drop many of our highways under water.  So when a sea breeze kicks up an isolated shower let’s issue Flash Flood Warnings for all of southeast Texas and Harris County for the entire day!

Still overkill?  Hmmm…

A butterfly just flew past my window.  Get those typhoon warnings up for Japan immediately!

Give me a break, people!  I don’t think you had to tell a single damned coastal resident there was a storm bearing down on them from the Atlantic.  Most are watching the news (well, except for stock holders).  Many are paying attention to the weather simply because it’s fall and they don’t want to send their kids to school in summer clothes if the temps are going to drop to sub-70 before 3PM!

I will be the first to tell you that our meteorological definitions of tropical cyclones need to be better.  But, we are not going to get specific definitions such as, “If the center is warmer than 70F, it’s tropical; 60-70 subtropical; <60 extratropical”.  Give me a Saffir-Simpson scaled truly based on barometric pressure and not on wind (which is highly subjective to begin with).

But, don’t give me that damned argument that because the named system looked worse than the unnamed one that the unnamed one should’ve been named.  This isn’t about looks.  It’s about data.   And the data is supportive of both arguments.

And if you want to make the argument that giving it a name would’ve made people prepare, I have one final word for you:  Not too far away from my home people are still standing in line at FEMA POD’s waiting for their supplies.  Giving Ike a name didn’t help them out too much, did it?

It’s the forecast, stupid!

This is rather simple.  A tropical cyclone by definition is a warm-core barotropic low pressure system.  What exactly is defined as warm?  If the outer area of a low pressure system is cooler than the inner area, this is a warm-core low.  The opposite is true for a cold-core low where the outer area is warmer than the inner area.  A baroclinic low is a low pressure system accompanied by fronts or troughs.  A baroclinic low is a cold-core low.

Let’s review!

A baroclinic low sits at the tail end of a cold front.  The low separates from the front.  The low slowly gains tropical characteristics by warming in the center.  The low becomes barotropic, or perhaps quasi-baratropic.  This is a very brief explanation of the transition from a cold front low to a tropical cyclone!

The National Hurricane Center feels what could have been Tropical Storm Kyle was never completely separated from the cold front (they clearly said so in their most recent Tropical Weather Outlook).  Let’s look at the vortex message from an earlier reconnaissance flight:

000
URNT12 KNHC 260046
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE   AL942008
A. 26/00:29:30Z
B. 33 deg 15 min N
  078 deg 17 min W
C. 850 mb 1331 m
D. 51 kt
E. 352 deg 25 nm
F. 080 deg 58 kt
G. 352 deg 25 nm
H. 991 mb
I. 12 C / 1511 m
J. 19 C / 1525 m
K. 12 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF303 03GGA LOW                OB 09
MAX FL WIND 58 KT NE QUAD 23:32:50Z
;

Let’s look at this closely.  Lines I and J are temperature recordings in celsius outside and inside of the “eye” respectively followed by the height the max temperatures were recorded.  This would be - drum roll - warm-core!

The only question left is whether the system is baroclinic or barotropic.  As we said earlier, a baroclinic low is associated with fronts or troughs.  What do we see from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center:

HPC Surface Analysis - Sep 25 2008 - 2100Z

A low pressure system off the Carolina coast accompanied by fronts dost make thy a baroclinic low.  I didn’t draw the weather map, so don’t blame me.  This is purely a point of speculation, but I think as many meteorologists out there that would argue Kyle is off the Carolina coast and Laura is north of Hispaniola, just as many would argue Kyle is north of Hispaniola and Laura is yet to appear on the map as the Carolina storm will not have time to develop into a purely tropical system before it moves inland.

I’m writing this because I’m seeing both sides of the argument.  This is a very well developed cyclone moving into the North Carolina/South Carolina border.  Given another 24 hours we’d be looking at a short-lived Tropical Storm Laura.  But it is not to be, not for this storm.

But don’t think technicalities will allow for easy sleeping tonight as coastal Carolina residents are going to have tropical storm conditions.  Baroclinic or barotropic, this system is bringing with it 60+mph winds and a decent amount of rain.  With the training effect of feeder bands, localized flooding is highly likely.  But, we are talking about Carolinians here.  As my mother (in Virginia) said as Tropical Storm Hanna rolled through, “We’ve had thunderstorms bigger than this!”

There is the issue of should the NHC have classified the system simply because it was so close to the coast and could have easily made the transition.  But, again, I think we’re looking at semantics.  The National Hurricane Center’s responsibility isn’t to tell the public that hurricane-force conditions are possible.  Their job is to tell the public a hurricane is coming.  It is up to the National Weather Service and local offices as well as local meteorologists to inform the public of hurricane-like conditions.  If the National Hurricane Center were responsible for discussing hurricane conditions, we’d have hurricane warnings throughout the winter with every noreaster!

Tonight, I side with the NHC.

Watching the Texans right now so this post will be short. Have been monitoring Puerto Rico radar south of Arroyo. There is definately a mid-level circulation. Recon is just getting to the system so time will tell if there is yet a surface circulation. If a closed circulation is not found, the system undoubtedly has a very tight wave as visible satellite imagery clearly shows low-level clouds running deep into the system. Outflow is good on all but the southwest side. Conditions should improve later today and tomorrow for the system to become better organized. I’d suspect the system is at least a depression and the National Hurricane Center will post as much in about an hour or so. We’ll see. Expect Tropical Storm Warnings to be issued for Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and Hispaniola immediately.

Just to the east of where Hurricane Ike moved ashore it is believed hundreds of residents may have still been on Bolivar Peninsula in such low-lying areas as Gilchrist and Caplen. Though search and rescuers have been able to get on what is now Bolivar Island, there have not been many reports of discovered fatalities. So today the search begins at another location where it is believed debris (and lost cattle) from Bolivar Peninsula may be: across Galveston and East Bays in Chambers County.
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Imagine you are a police officer forced to tell thousands of angry evacuees they cannot return home even though those same evacuees were last told they could.  That is the situation again today as thousands of Galveston residents attempt to get back onto the island.  Many just want a glimpse of what is to come?  Do they just have to pick up some tree limbs?  Change the carpet?  Repair some windows?  Or build a new home?  These residents, however, will not get answers to their questions.  At least, not today and likely not for several weeks.

Galveston is in a state of chaos right now.  Residents are becoming increasingly frustrated as they are told one thing and to discover the opposite.  Imagine being stuck on a Houston highway for hours just anticipating what you will find when you get back home only to be told you have to wait much longer.  A 15-plus miles-long traffic jam that ends with a u-turn on an island not yours.  That is the dilemma in southeast Texas tonight.

Yet, imagine the two police officers that stand prior to that u-turn who have to make the ultimate decision.  Last night, several residents told the officers that they had medications on the island they needed to retrieve - urgent medications.  Surely some are fibs.  But, who’s telling the fib?  And how do you make the determination?  A police officer tells one studdering man, “I’m writing down your license number and if you’re still on that island after 8 (curfew), I’m arresting you and your family.”

Another police officer is seen running down I-45 south, machine gun (perhaps loaded) in hand, yelling at a driver: “Get off the road, now!”  The driver veers off onto the exit at the last second.

Galveston authorities insist martial law will not be necessary for the remaining residents on the island - provided they leave soon.  However, with few medical options and hazardous contamination spread throughout, the island has nearly become a case of every man for himself.  Families are sticking together, firm in their decisions to stay with their homes.  But, with the risk of possible disease outbreak, authorities are exploring all options possible.

Galveston is not New Orleans.  But there are similarities.  One can’t help but wonder about the fight between government and public.  The fight between loss and survival.  The tragedy in knowing your home is gone and knowing you can’t return home.

It seems as the world is not paying attention to this, though.  Because there are not floating bodies in the Bays and strewn across the streets, it is not a story.  Hurricane Katrina has spoiled the national media with carnage and devastation that prior to August 29, 2005 unimaginable.  We saw it with Hurricane Gustav how the media fled New Orleans faster than the evacuees when the success of the levees disappointed them.  And, now we are seeing it here.

But, do not think all is safe and right in southeast Texas.  An island is in trouble.  And residents are angry.  They’re not asking for much.  They only want closure.  If their home is gone, then so be it.  But let them see their home is gone so they can prepare for the future.  Right now, it’s all they have.

Sorry for the constant updates as this story is ever-changing fast.

UPDATE( 9-17-2008 9:30AM CDT): Another traffic jam has developed on I-45 south going to Galveston as many residents have either been misinformed that the “Look and Leave” policy was still or put back into place.  However, all of these residents are being turned back.  The traffic jam is also preventing rescue authorities and construction crews from getting onto the island in a timely manner.  If you are aware of anyone attempting to get onto the island and can reach them, please advise them they will be turned back.

UPDATE( 9-16-2008 6:00PM CDT): Per Mayor Lyda Ann Thomas, effective immediately, the “Look and Leave” policy is cancelled.  As of now, residents not currently on the island will not be allowed to return until further notice.

UPDATE ( 9-16-2008 5:15PM CDT): Galveston Island checkpoints have been closed.  They were only open temporarily to allow rescue and utility vehicles onto the island.  At 6PM, the Island will be closed.  There is no word if Galveston will attempt this again tomorrow.

UPDATE: At least for tonight only, checkpoints have been cleared to allow people on the island.  However, they still must leave by 6PM tonight.

Galveston residents were told by Mayor Lyda Ann Thomas effective noon today they would be allowed to come onto the island provided they proved via driver’s license or utility bill they lived there.  They would be allowed to visit their property, but would have to leave the island by 6PM tonight.  National Guard troops are at the base of the Galveston Causeway performing checks and verifications.  Yet, many thousands will not get a chance to even get in tonight.

Currently, there is approxiamtely a 4-5 mile traffic jam on I-45 South to Galveston as far north as La Marque.  Unquestionably, many of those individuals will not be able to get to their homes tonight.  But you can rest assured that tomorrow morning at 6AM when they are allowed to try again, there will be another traffic jam.  In fact, like a new Playstation being released in a Best Buy on Christmas Eve, there will be a traffic jam well before the 6AM “opening”.

Compounded to the situation is the fact there are no working bathrooms anywhere on the water; no running water.  There are no open businesses or convenience stores.  And there are only two POD’s (points of distribution) giving out supplies to residents that didn’t evacuate to begin with.

By far worse, the University of Texas Medical Branch Galveston, the last open hospital on the island, closed down yesterday after their generators began running low.

Mayor Thomas is a down-home southern woman, genuinely sincere and caring about her constituents.  But, it seems she has invited a situation Galveston Island is just not prepared to accept, yet.  Residents are going to get hurt.  If they manage to make it past the traffic jam without flaring tempers (and, there will be flaring tempers), they will have to navigate the island and their properties without being hurt.  Even stepping on a rusted nail or shattered glass is a very dangerous situation on Galveston Island today.

Tomorrow morning, at least for parts of I-45, things will look normal yet again.

When all is said and done the areas of Gilchrist, Port Bolivar, Crystal Beach, and Emerald Beach will be synonymous with Hurricane Ike.  When you think of Hurricane Andrew, many think of Miami, or south Florida.  Those who know, though, associate Andrew with Homestead.

Homestead, Florida was absolutely demolished in the storm.  The Air Force once had a base there.  After Andrew, they decided it just wasn’t worth it to rebuild.

There is no Army base, or any military base for that matter, on the Bolivar Peninsula.  For that matter, tonight, there is nothing on the Bolivar Peninsula.  A few homes stand on High Island.  That is only because the city (which isn’t even an island to begin with) is the highest elevated Gulf coast location between Mobile, Alabama and the Yucatan Peninsula sitting 38 feet above sea level.

The images that came out of Bolivar Peninsula late this afternoon - more than 48 hours after the storm passed through - didn’t reveal anything abnormal.  Which begs the question, why the urgent need to prevent media from accessing this location?  Nonetheless, an occasional home stands, obviously built to withstand Hurricane Ike’s ravage with room to spare.

Hurricane Ike - Crystal Beach - 15 Sep 2008 © Houston Chronicle

Hurricane Ike - Crystal Beach - 15 Sep 2008 © Houston Chronicle

Hurricane Ike - Crystal Beach - 15 Sep 2008 - © Houston Chronicle

It is clear through some of the video footage coming out of Bolivar Peninsula that Ike’s storm surge took much land back into the Gulf of Mexico.  Small cliffs on the beach’s edge a clear sign of the waves that crashed onto the beach after Ike’s storm surge deposited more sand across the island.

There are rescuers on the island doing door to door searches.  However, it did not appear supplies were being delivered.  This certainly isn’t to insenuate supplies aren’t there nor readily available.  But they certainly weren’t in mass loads as what Galveston and Houston have seen in recent days.  This is easily explained by the fact all roads are covered with debris.  If that weren’t enough of an explanation, the lone bridge between Gilchrist and north Bolivar Peninsula to Caplen and south Bolivar Peninsula is destroyed.  Any supplies being delivered are going by helicopters, which were sighted across the area.

I do not know why there was a delay in allowing media to fly over the island.  Nor will this website help contribute to any conspiracy theories.  It is odd and unprecedented for media not to be allowed to view storm damage.  Time will hopefully reveal the reasoning.

Nonetheless, focus in the aftermath of Hurricane Ike needs to be focused on the hardest hit areas from Galveston and east Houston north and east to southwest Louisiana.  Let’s not forget who the real victims of this storm are.

There is a lot of pointing fingers here locally as to why certain people aren’t receiving supplies they’ve been advised were coming.  Here’s the situation according to local officials on the points of distribution and Bolivar Peninsula.

Points of Distribution Delayed

Well before Hurricane Ike made landfall in southeast Texas, Houston Mayor Bill White and Harris County Judge Ed Emmett came up with a preliminary listing of points of distribution (POD) of supplies.  The POD’s were not made public until last night for two primary reasons: first, they had to make sure what POD’s were accessible by ground for both the supply trucks and those needing the supplies; and, two, they did not want people showing up at these POD’s and waiting potentially hours for supplies that may not ever come.  Remember, several of our major highways were underwater Saturday after the hurricane passed.  Then Sunday morning, flooding was worsened by a large line of thunderstorms that had passed through in the early morning.  Even areas in northeast Houston that were not flooded in Hurricane Ike were flooded by the feeder band that came through.

The State of Texas had agreed prior to the storm that they would deliver the supplies from the origin POD at Reliant Park once those supplies were received.  However, early yesterday morning, the State said they were unable to do it.  FEMA said they could handle it but they’re priorities were getting set up in Brazoria, Galveston and Chambers Counties first as those were the hardest hit and no one was delivering supplies there as of yet.  Mayor White and Judge Emmett both advised FEMA that City and County officials would distribute the supplies.  Texas officials now claim it has always been a local responsibility, yet, were touting their own horns before the storm with Governor Rick Perry stating that Texas would “show the rest of the world how to handle a natural disaster”.

As of late last night the POD’s were made public as supplies had arrived.  Yet, the issue then was due to a week-long curfew here in Houston, no one would be able to get relief supplies until this morning when the POD’s were opened.

Bolivar

Mayor White stated yesterday that “people must understand we are not first on the totem pole”, referring to the worse situations in Galveston and Bolivar Peninsula where Hurricane Ike made a direct hit.  There are at least several hundred residents that are still on the island according to the High Island EMS Chief.  According to some reports coming out of Bolivar, Gilchrist is gone.  Crystal Beach is gone.  High Island - hence the name - is ok at elevated locations.  However, the highways leading down the peninsula were still underwater as of last night.

The situation with Bolivar is that for some apparent reason, there is a NO-FLY zone over the island - or most of it.  Local media were allowed to fly over the southern tip for one mile inland, but that was it.  Though local media have made arrangements with local authorities (High Island police and rescuers) to be taken onto the island via airboat, state police stopped the news crew and made them turn back.

Prior to State Police turning back the media, a local reporter confronted Governor Perry asking why media were not allowed on Bolivar Peninsula.  Perry’s response: “I don’t know where you’ve been but I was just in Galveston and there are plenty of media there.”  The problem with that is - Galveston is not Bolivar Peninsula.  The reported noted that and asked Governor Perry the same questions.  Governor Perry said it was the decision of local authorities on whether or not to allow media onto the peninsula.  Well, the reporter wasn’t aware at the time that it was State Police that had prevented local media from going onto the island.  Governor Perry then went on to say that he does not control the air space over Bolivar Peninsula and cannot answer as to why local media cannot fly over the island - which is true.

So who is restricting local media from flying over Bolivar Peninsula?  And, why?

A local station is promising they are allowed on the Peninsula this morning by local authorities.  We will see if that holds true.

The problem also lies in that Bolivar Peninsula residents are voicing loud across Trinity Bay that they have no supplies themselves and though there are plenty of sightings of Blackhawk helicopters flying north to the area, there have not been any sightings of relief aid going to the area.  So where is the aid for Bolivar?

If the High Island EMS Chief can ride an airboat from the mainland down the flooded Highway 87 to search for survivors (and there are plenty), then is FEMA or Texas doing the same?  If so, why haven’t they been seen doing such?

Now Is Not The Time To Point Fingers

But, it is the time for action and that we are not seeing much of.  Note that residents on Bolivar Peninsula were told to evacuate, yet went to work Thursday as if the storm was no big deal.  When they woke up Friday morning to find the storm surge was already coming in (highly unusual but know would occur from such a large storm), it was already to late to evacuate by land.  Thus, the US Coast Guard began rescue operations Friday morning.  However, as winds picked up by early afternoon, those rescue operations were ceased and the remaining residents (an unknown number from what I can find) were left to ride the storm out on their own.

Note, there are reports of fatalities on the Peninsula.  But, no one is saying how much.  The same no one’s are also saying there are survivors and they need assistance - NOW.  We should be focused on those residents getting the assistance necessary prior to pointing fingers at who is to blame.

But, if you really want to go that route then keep this in mind.  We’ve known all week this hurricane could possibly strike Galveston.  The National Hurricane Center’s forecast for last Sunday night had the hurricane pointed directly at Galveston.  Yes, the forecast shifted all the way south to just past Corpus Christi Tuesday morning.  But, by Wednesday night the forecast was back on Galveston Island and a hurricane watch was issued for the area six hours earlier.  Residents had 36 hours advanced lead time to evacuate.  Yet, as I said, they went to work Thursday with plans to ride out the storm - not wanting to evacuate until it was too late.  The same story holds true for Galveston Island as I reported Friday morning that there were many residents on the island while the storm surge was already flooding the feeder roads on the only highway out.

So, if you really want to point fingers, why can’t they be pointed at the original issue.  No one can say they didn’t know this was coming.  Everyone had time to evacuate and mandatory evacuations were issued well in advance of the storm.  When all is said and done, Texas and FEMA may have tripped up.  But the residents who stayed behind on a barrier island with no protection as a category two hurricane with category four storm surge beared down deserve the first finger.

UPDATE: Media have not been allowed into Crystal Beach, High Island, Gilchrist; all areas on the northern sections of Bolivar Peninsula.  Media has been allowed to fly over the southern tip of  Bolivar Peninsula.  It is unprecedented that media is not allowed to access an area after a disaster and these actions are similar to what China does.  I do not know what the situation is in the middle and upper sections of Bolivar Peninsula.  However, as it stands right now, there are only two ways to view the area: by air and by Highway 124 South, both of which are closed off to media by state and federal authorities.  I will post an update once more is known.

Local news has been allowed to fly over the Bolivar Peninsula, just north of Galveston Island.  Many people chose there chose to ride out Hurricane Ike.  However, as the storm approached, they called for emergency assistance and while some were able to be evacuated, weather conditions prevented many rescues from taking place.

Now, the area is just absolutely demolished.  There does not appear to be one single home standing.  A battleship monument at Seawolf Park washed ashore and listing right.  Bolivar Peninsula is a barrier island unprotected to the Gulf of Mexico unlike Galveston.  A storm suge of at least 15 feet is believed to have passed across this area as the hurricane’s northwest eyewall and eye passed over this location.