Observations from Dauphin Island, AL and Petit Bois Island, MS indicate the center of Tropical Storm Ida is coming ashore at this hour (5AM CST).
The National Hurricane Center reports in this mornings storm discussion that Tropical Storm Ida will merge with a frontal zone and a developing baroclinic low in the southeast US later today.
Ida has already begun an extratropical transition with the system spreading out and internal dewpoints well into the 40-50’s Farenheit.
There are no reports from the region as far as wind or tornadic damage is concerned. There are some reports of localized street flooding due to tidal surges up to three feet in many locations.
So far, no deaths have been reported.
Continue reading…
Twelve years, three months, 21 days and 14 hours ago, Hurricane Danny made landfall at Fort Morgan, Alabama at the mouth of Mobile Bay.
Danny was the last category one hurricane to strike stretch of coastline (within 65 miles of Ida’s forecasted landfall.
Danny was a little stronger than Ida with winds of 70kts (81mph or 130kph) and a central pressure of 985mb (29.09in).
Another significant difference was that Danny moved 1/3 as slow as Ida; 6kts (7mph or 11kph).
Danny was smaller than Ida by up to 75 miles – tropical storm-force winds extended up to 100 miles from the center.
There are other scientific factors that would come into play when comparing the two storms such as tides. But, I thought it’d still help give an idea of what to expect from Ida by looking at Danny. My only regret is not thinking of this earlier but, oh well.
Hurricane Danny struck Alabama July 19, 2007. The slow forward movement of the hurricane dropped nearly 38 inches of rain in southern Alabama.
Ida’s faster movement will allow 1/3 of that total, forecasters believe.
Danny created a 6.5-foot storm surge between Gulf Shores, AL and Fort Walton. In Mobile Bay, the consistent northerly winds as the hurricane passed created tides 2-feet below normal. The highest storm tides occurred, of course, at and just to the east of where Danny’s center came ashore
These tides are forecast for Ida, also. In fact, while tropical storm-force winds are just now coming ashore in southern Alabama and Mississippi, tidal surges of 2-3 feet above normal are already being reported, according to the Mobile NWS office.
According to the preliminary report for Hurricane Danny, the American Insurance Services Group estimated combined losses around $60 MILLION USD while the NHC estimated losses as much as $100 MILLION USD. That includes Danny’s flooding damages created as the storm passed through the mid-Atlantic region.
Is it reasonable to expect similar circumstances from Ida? I don’t think so due to the simple fact Danny moved much slower. If Ida were moving slower or Danny moved faster, I’d say expectations would fall more inline even though Danny was smaller and more intense.
But, just because Danny was moving a third the speed of Ida doesn’t mean damages, flooding and surges will be a third less, either. Rainfall totals will certainly be less. But, surges are the number one killers in hurricanes.
There were no deaths directly attributable to surge from Danny. Hopefully, Ida will share that in common.
Read more about Hurricane Danny at Wikipedia.org.
GOES Visible - Nov. 9, 3:32 PM CST - courtesy UCAR RAP
The latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center has Tropical Storm Ida 165 miles south-southwest of Pensacola, moving north at 16kts (18mph or 29kph). Though the latest official forecast from the NHC did not have Ida making landfall until early Tuesday morning, it seems Ida will be coming ashore much earlier than that; I believe by midnight tonight.
Long range reflectivity from Mobile, AL - Nov. 9, 3:58 PM CST
Numerous buoys in the region are reporting data from Ida. The closest observation was from station 42887 – Thunder Horse (yes, THAT Thunder Horse). Currently, the BP oil platform is reporting east-southeast winds of 35kts (40mph or 65kph). Earlier, winds were reported as high as 56kts (64mph or 104kph). Seas have been as much as 30 feet.
According to the NHC, a recon pass through a strong convective burst in a feeder band reported 70kts (81mph or 130kph) to 75kts (86mph or 139kph) winds. The NHC felt it was a temporary burst and that most observations have been supportive of Ida’s current intensity.
As of 4:00 PM CST, there have been no storm reports from feeder bands moving onshore.
Recent land plots courtesy of NCAR RAP show the heaviest winds are still offshore with no land locations yet seeing tropical storm-force winds.
Southeast US observations as of Nov. 9, 3:43 PM CST
I will try and post another report later tonight.
The National Hurricane Center keeps Ida coming inland as a category one hurricane near Pensacola, Florida early Tuesday morning, local time.
Ida is being hammered by strong upper-level wind shear. The system is vertically tilted and, though there is good convection around the center of circulation and in a feeder band to the east, Ida lacks depth. This, due to sea surface conditions, leads me to think the HWRF model output may be most appropriate – agreeing with the NHC’s landfall point but bringing it in as a strong tropical storm.
Tight pressure gradients between Ida, a western Gulf low and a Florida high pressure ridge will create gale conditions not directly associated with Ida for much of the Gulf coast.
Ida will be the first hurricane to make landfall in the United States, this year. The only other storm to hit the US was Tropical Storm Claudette, which also came into the Florida panhandle (I think in August).
The impact of Ida, it is hoped by many including myself, is that regardless of how inactive a hurricane season is, it is never over until it’s over. And, really, though the bulk of cyclonic activity in the Atlantic is confined between the months of June and November, there have been several storms that have developed in December, January and into April.
Bottom line is: it’s never really over. And, hopefully, all residents in the Florida panhandle, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama are prepared.
If you live in the northern Gulf coast, how are you preparing for the storm? Feel free to drop a comment.
Now, onto Ida’s details…
Continue reading…
Hurricane Ida has taken advantage of the ample moisture in the western Caribbean to become a category one storm. Ida has little time left to absorb the energy before it enters the less-favorable Gulf of Mexico.
Conditions in the GOM, however, would support a category one hurricane provided upper-level conditions remained favorable – no dry air enters Ida, Ida maintains convection, and shear remains under 20kts (23mph or 37kph).
The NHC mentioned in the 08/0900Z advisory package that due to Ida’s expectations of becoming extratropical in the northern Gulf that it likely would leave any weather advisories to the local National Weather Service offices.
However, several computer models are indicating Ida will come ashore the north central Gulf coast region as a minimal hurricane. The NHC could not possibly allow not issuing watches and warnings for the region and I would suspect they will be hoisted later today – at least tropical storm watches.
Ida is expected to mingle with an upper-level ridge that will bring strong wind conditions indirectly associated with Ida to the Gulf coast region as early as today. Therefore, gale wind warnings and coastal flood watches and warnings have been issued for portions of the Louisiana/Mississippi/Alabama/Florida Gulf coast.
Based on latest model trends, it seems more likely Ida will make a landfall in the central Gulf coast region. the 08/0900Z forecast from the NHC took Ida dangerously close to Florida’s western panhandle as an extratropical system with winds near 45kts (52mph or 83kph).
It is my opinion residents in this area should be prepared for a hurricane based on forecast conditions, sea conditions, and timing issues of any extratropcial transition.
Continue reading…
I’m 0-2 with forecasting Ida’s development/redevelopment.
It didn’t help Ida got back into the western Caribbean faster than I or the NHC though (about about 6 hours). That’s no excuse.
I got an email yesterday from several people asking why I was trying to make a comparison between Ida and Hurricane Isidore – two storms that had nothing in common.
The point I thought I was making was how the region can disrupt a storms interior structure – a point I had tried to make a couple of days ago.
The latest error in judgement came because I thought Ida’s low-level circulation would be disrupted enough that it would take a while for it to redevelop and, therefore, have limited time over the extremely favorable Caribbean sea surface conditions.
Seeing those things occur is one thing. Trying to anticipate it is another. Some called me a downcaster – expecting less from a cyclone than others expect. Well, I’ve been called a wishcaster (expecting greater than normal from a cyclone), too.
I’m neither. And those who read here on a regular basis know this. I look at the data, provide the data I see, provide the ideas behind the National Hurricane Center (or the appropriate governing facility whether it be the CPHC or RSMC) and then I provide my thoughts.
I don’t do this to make a name for myself. I do it to educate. Most who read this want the latest info. I give that to them. Many who read want to know why. I give that to them. Some who read want to know more than what the NHC provides in their regular advisories. I give that to them.
I write because I want to explain the possibilities and what’s reasonable. My two errors were reasonable errors. So, they were wrong. The NHC was on the right track and I’ll give them credit. But, if you’ve been reading you’ll know I’ve always been telling you what they say.
The point is, when you read my articles, you’re prepared for every possible situation. Because the NHC will be wrong on a number of occasions throughout the hurricane season.
But, if you read Personal Hurricane Center.com regularly, then you cannot say you weren’t prepared. Whether you are in the path of a hurricane or just want to know what one is doing – I give you the knowledge and the tools to make those judgements.
And, for the record, I’ve had my good moments – most recently with Typhoon Lupit and Hurricane Rick (with Rick, I told you what it was going to do before the National Hurricane Center even initiated advisories).
So, if you want to write and tell me I’m missing something or that I’m misinterpreting data, feel free. I don’t mind criticism.
But, don’t pop in here, read one article, see that it’s wrong and assume I know nothing of what I’m talking about and forget about me and this website. If you’re going to do that, drop the NHC website from your favorites list, too.
Everyone will get it wrong at one point or another. That’s why I write everyday and follow every single storm. And, just as the NHC, JTWC, RSMC, CPHC and all others who track and issue forecasts on a regular basis, we’ll have our moments. And we’ll learn from them.
The following storm details are based on data as of 07/1500Z (9:00 AM CST).
Continue reading…
As mentioned in this morning’s post, Tropical Depression Ida is really taking a beating due to its time over land and the mountainous regions to the west disrupting the storm.
This severe disruption leads to tremendous uncertainty in the NHC’s official forecast. It is unclear if Ida will even be a true tropical cyclone when it enters the northwestern Caribbean. Even if so, how bad will the low-level structure be?
I think of Hurricane Isidore which ran parallel to the northern Yucatan coast before getting pulled into land. At landfall, Isidore was a category three with 110kts (127mph or 204kph) – a beautiful storm aesthetically.
After 36 hours over land, Isidore re-entered the Gulf of Mexico with 50kts (58mph or 93kph). Isidore barely strengthened – 55kts (63mph or 102kph) – before making landfall in Louisiana approximately 48 hours later.
These storms take a huge beating in this region. Inflow is disrupted. Available energy doesn’t reach the center of circulation. Even the best vertically-stacked systems lose their interior structure and have a difficult time recovering.
It’s very difficult to get a hurricane to develop. It’s extremely difficult for one to develop twice.
The NHC expects Ida to survive, but even they raise caution:
IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE CENTER OF IDA WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS BEFORE IT EMERGES OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. IF IDA SURVIVES UNTIL THEN IT WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO RESTRENGTHEN.
Tropical Depression Ida Discussion #8
I wouldn’t officially rule out survival. If I had to put some money on it, though, I’d say it’s highly unlikely Ida will make it to the United States Gulf coast as a tropical cyclone.
Continue reading…
The best way to know the difference between a hurricane (barotropic low) and a noreaster (baroclinic low)?
Hurricanes die over land.
Simple.
This was Hurricane Ida 24 hours ago:
And as of 4:45 AM CST:
In the second image, the center of Ida is located near 14.4N, 84.1W – south of the Honduras border over Nicaragua. The center of circulation (COC) is completely void of deep convection or high cloud tops. The coldest cloud tops are in the spiral band to the north.
You can also see to the south and east of the COC lower clouds – or lack thereof – off the coast of Nicaragua. This is dryer air from land sweeping around the system into the COC.
Tropical cyclones don’t feed off water. They feed off the boundary layer, or the immediate layer of warm, moist air above the ocean surface. Warm water temperatures keep the boundary layer warm and evaporation adds moisture content.
Obviously, land does not do this (except in swampy regions such as south Florida or eastern North Carolina which have been known to occasionally support hurricanes longer than other flat land masses – see Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Danny).
Yesterday, on another message board I frequent occasionally, I saw people saying the mountainous regions of Nicaragua and Honduras would have no affect on Ida because Ida would not pass over those mountains; it would pass to the east.
This is true in the sense that the COC would not be disrupted significantly. But, it still disrupts the systems inflow and circulation. Interaction with the mountains creates shear inside of the system as well as additional rainfall because of updrafts that I’ve discussed many times before. That is moisture – energy – that doesn’t get pulled into the COC.
So, even if the COC itself isn’t disrupted, it has a moisture channel cut off because of the mountains. It’s losing energy. This helps suffocate it.
Want proof? Look at the two images above. Think it’s a coincidence the strongest convection is located to the north of the COC? What mountainous regions are to the east of Ida disrupting inflow? None.
Onto other things, you frequent readers know I love to use NRL Monterey images. I use them because they have the lat/lon lines on them so you guys can see where the system is if you want. Plus, they have a huge selection in one place – I don’t have to surf all over the place.
Unfortunately, all but their basic imagery is over twelve hours old.
I don’t have any plans until later this morning so I’m going to wait until either the imagery is restored or I start running out of time. Either way, look for a full post by about 8:30 AM CST.
Just going off what I’ve seen so far (imagery, obs, NHC statement) – it’s not looking good for Ida. Quite frankly, in my opinion, the entire NHC forecast can be thrown out the window.
I’ll tell you why later this morning.
Really quickly, I wanted to write about what we have seen in the past with storms taking tracks very similar to Tropical Storm Ida.
Using, NOAA’s Hurricane Query tool I found six storms that made landfall in the same vicinity as Ida, from October to December, in order of date:
In 1994, Hurricane Gordon came close but never came inland and thus has been eliminated from this list.
The 1906 Unnamed hurricane (which had a very odd path, btw) came inland as a category three hurricane and exited into the Gulf of Honduras as a minimal hurricane. It strengthened slightly – 70kts (81mph or 130kph) before coming inland again near Belize.
The 1933 Unnamed tropical storm came inland moving due west as a minimal storm and dissipated shortly after.
The 1940 Unnamed tropical storm struck as a weak tropical storm and maintained that intensity throughout an entry into the western Caribbean and a second landfall over the Yucatan Peninsula.
Tropical Storm Katrina made landfall as a weak tropical storm and reemerged in the Caribbean as a depression, never strengthening before final landfall in Yucatan.
Hurricane Michelle spent very little time over Nicaragua before taking off to the north.
Hurricane Beta came in moving due west and dissipated over western Nicaragua.
Of the six cyclones, Ida is not expected to follow any similar paths. Katrina and the 1940 storm is worth researching, but they went further inland. Both of these storms entered the western Caribbean as minimal tropical storms and neither recouped much prior to landfall in the Yucatan.
The difference here will be Ida will not spend quite as much time over Nicaragua or Honduras and could hit the Caribbean as a weak to moderate tropical storm.
I still think the structure will be disrupted particularly where from westerly inflow. However, if Ida isn’t hurt too bad, the system could find itself in a position to exploit some very rich untapped energy.
We’ll see.
Tropical Storm Ida is on the verge of becoming a hurricane – if not, already. However, it is also just hours from coming inland into Nicaragua.
Ida strengthened steadily but impressively yesterday. The storm, however, will have a very difficult time trying to survive the track across Nicaragua and Honduras – similar to Hispaniola, I call this region a hurricane killer.
High mountains in the region is expected to create updrafts leading to heavier rains, so flash-flooding is major concern and some areas can see up to 10 inches of rain.
Focus should not be on where and if Ida will threaten the United States. Too many storms have come here and died. Some that have survived to see water again did not live long after due to the structural damage they have sufffered.
At this point of time, it is a wait and see.
Here are the details of Ida.
Current storm details:
- as of 05/0900Z (3:00 AM CST) Ida was located just north of Corn Islands or 85miles (157km) south of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua;
- Ida has winds of 60kts (69mph or 111kph) with gusts to 75kts (86mph or 139kph); 65kts (75mph or 120kph) makes it a hurricane;
- pressure is 991mb (29.26in);
- Ida is moving northeast (310°)at [phcCnvert unit="kts" value="6"];
- tropical storm-force winds extend as much as 45miles (83km) to the northeast and as little as 20miles (37km) to the southwest;
- the official NHC forecast takes Ida inland today weakening to a very weak tropical depression; as the storm reemerges over the northwestern Caribbean – and this is a big IF – it is expected to slowly strengthen back to tropical storm status.
Current watches and warnings:
- Hurricane watch from Bluefields, Nicaragua to Nicaragua/Honduras border;
- Tropical storm warning for Nicaraguan coast;
Current Weather Conditions:
Sea Surface Conditions:
- SSTs are up to 29°C (84°F) along the coast of Nicaragua beneath Ida; the waters in the Gulf of Honduras if Ida should survive are as warm as 31°C (88°F);
- 26°C (79°F) isotherm is extremely shallow along the coast of Nicargua; should Ida survive a track into the Gulf of Honduras (western Caribbean), Ida will have much deeper waters to work with – up to 100m (328ft);
- OHC values are high in the western Caribbean should Ida survive this first landfall;
Satellite Presentation:
Rainfall:
Computer Forecast Models:
- a 05/0000Z UKMET takes the system inland and weakens it over the region;
- the 05/0000Z EMCWF takes the system north offshore of the Honduras/Nicaragua border and then northwest towards Yucatan;
- the 05/0000Z CMC does not show a surface system but shows a 850mb vorticity moving inland inline with the official forecast; that track takes the system over Yucatan and north-northwest across the Gulf of Mexico – it must be noted we have to have a system survive the track across Nicaragua/Honduras and Yucatan; very difficult task;
- the 05/0000Z GFDL continues to develop an intense hurricane while keeping it offshore traveling due north towards western Cuba; in fact, this is the only model that not only takes that path but develops Ida to a category five hurricane. Being that Ida is fixing to come inland, it is safe to discount this model at this time;
- the 05/0600Z HWRF takes Ida into Nicaragua/Honduras and then shows a struggling cyclone moving towards the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. This is not an unreasonable forecast and is possible;
- the 05/0600Z GFS takes Ida on the same path as the HWRF for the first 24 hours, redevelops a center south of western Cuba and swinging it back towards the Yucatan Peninsula before turning northeast; while this is not impossible, I like how the GFS tries to anticipate redevelopment – I suppose its possible;
- the remaining track guidance is spread all throughout from western Cuba to a track across Guatemala and southern Mexico;
- intensity guidance either strengthens or weakens due to anticipated landfalls (or lack thereof); the GFDI’s partnership with the GFDL leads it to be the major outlier and, as such, I believe should be discredited
What are your thoughts on Ida? Do you know of anyone in the area preparing for the storm? Post your comments below.
