As the regular readers of the site are aware, a few weeks ago we had a young lady, Vienna, ask about whether she should continue her trip to Cabo San Lucas even though Hurricane Rick had just developed (it was not yet a hurricane). I had suggested she should be be prepared to leave in a few days.
Her vacation was to last a full week beginning the Saturday prior to Rick. Rick wasn’t forecast to make landfall in Cabo until Thursday. However, a sharper turn and faster forward progress moved potential landfall up to Tuesday. Of course, Hurricane Rick never struck Cabo directly and Vienna and her group never evacuated.
The following is an unedited message from Vienna with regards to her trip:
Continue reading…
In the words of the Galveston National Weather Service: Let the games begin.
Typhoon Lupit’s forecast track has changed considerably and now the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is thinking the system may miss The Philippines. But, I’ll tell you why this may not be good news for residents of Luzon.
Tropical Storm Rick fizzled quickly after coming ashore yesterday just north of Mazatlan. However, Rick’s remnants combined with other upper-level disturbances are dropping tremendous amounts of rain in Texas. Over 6-inches have fallen just west of Austin. Parts or all of 16 Texas counties are under a flash-flood warning and this will spread east and north today.
I’m sorry I’ve been ignoring Neki. That was a pretty impressive hurricane, yesterday. I’ll give you the latest from Hawaii.
The Caribbean disturbance continues to linger and is looking better, though no models are forecast development.
Can I write about four storms in an hour before my real job? Let’s see…
Continue reading…
Tropical Storm Rick passed far enough south of Cabo that not even tropical storm-force winds were felt. Those same winds are about 40 miles offshore Mazatlan, Sinaloa, Mexico where Rick is set for landfall around 3PM PDT, 2200 UTC, according to our interactive Tropical Storm Rick tracking chart.
Typhoon Lupit has continued to weaken slightly but is still a category two typhoon with winds of 80kts (92mph or 148kph). Lupit has begun the west-southwest track and it now appears certain there will be landfall along the northern coast of Luzon, Philippines early Friday.
The Caribbean tropical disturbance is not looking any better and may have entered the east Pacific, though I haven’t looked at data to know for sure.
Continue reading…
Even the most powerful of hurricanes and typhoons are no match to the simple element of wind and dry air.
Tropical Storm Rick is a shadow of its former self, somewhat surprisingly, but it should have been anticipated. Rick will never be a hurricane again and residents in Baja California Sur and Sinaloa are breathing easy. However, rainfall continues to be a serious threat.
Meanwhile, dry air has entered Typhoon Lupit and caused considerable weakening though Lupit is still a category two typhoon. More interesting is that Lupit has continued a west-northwest track which is now opening the idea of missing the Philippines.
Could two areas already hit hard by major cyclones this year catch a huge break like this?
In addition, I’ll have an update on the Caribbean tropical wave as well as the new area of interest in the central Atlantic.
Continue reading…
Hurricane Rick has weakened considerably from the category five monster it was yesterday. However, Rick is still forecast to make landfall near Cabo San Lucas as a category two hurricane.
Super Typhoon Lupit is currently moving northwest but is expected to turn west and southwest back towards the northern coast of the Philippines. Unlike Rick, Lupit is not expected to weaken much prior to making landfall early Thursday.
Continue reading…
Yesterday I said today’s headline would be “Major Hurricane Rick and Super Typhoon Lupit”. Typhoon Lupit is not quite a major hurricane at 95kts (109mph or 176kph). 140kts (161mph or 259kph) makes it a super typhoon.
Hurricane Rick’s forecast is taking it towards the central Baja peninsula as of the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
Typhoon Lupit is struggling but still expected to become a super typhoon and is an extremely dangerous threat to the northern Philippines.
Continue reading…
Tropical Storm Rick continues to be an impressive storm and clearly is on its way to major hurricane status. If there were any questions about the intensity forecast they should only be if the forecast is too weak.
Typhoon Lupit is a minimal typhoon yet is also expected to become a super typhoon within 24 hours.
Both appear headed for possible landfall in areas that have seen their share of major hurricanes and typhoons this year; Rick in Mexico and Lupit in the Philippines.
Continue reading…
The National Hurricane Center has not upgraded the chances of development for Invest 93E, likely to be named Rick, as of 7AM CDT. Those remain at 30%-50%.
I think it’s inevitable – and soon. Mike Formosa of the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch writes in this morning’s tropical weather discussion:
THIS CONVECTION IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH BANDING FEATURES THAT WILL HAVE A HIGHER DVORAK RATING ON THE NEXT CLASSIFICATION. THE LOW IS IN AN AREA OF LOW SHEAR… ABUNDANT MOISTURE…AND WARMER THAN NORMAL SSTS.
He then breaks my heart by giving the system a medium chance of development within 48 hours.
Does this look like a system with a medium chance of development in 48 hours:
Invest 93E - Visible - Oct 15, 2009 15:15 UTC
Continue reading…
(For more up-to-date info, please read Tomorrows Headline: Major Hurricane Rick and Super Typhoon Lupit.)
Tropical Storm Parma’s landfall yesterday left Tropical Depression 22W the only system in town. That system has since further strengthened to Tropical Storm Lupit.
Tropical Storm Lupit is the only cyclone on the planet at this time and should remain that way for the next couple of days.
The EMCWF is forecasting the east Pacific wave to develop into a serious hurricane and threaten Baja and Mexico in about a week. I’ll also get into that.
Continue reading…
Tropical Depression Patricia is dead in the eyes of the this morning as it moved just 15 miles southeast of Cabo San Lucas.
Weakling.
Parma is just an hour or so from making a landfall about 20 miles south of Hai Phòng as a weak tropical storm.
A new depression in the west Pacific, Twenty-Two, developed last night and is currently about 470 miles east-southeast of Guam.
Here’s what you need to know about the three cyclones
Continue reading…
