The National Hurricane Center will begin issuing watches and warnings an additional 12 hours in advance.
Previously, tropical storm and hurricane watches were issued 36 in advance of tropical storm or hurricane conditions. Beginning May 15, the start of the East Pacific hurricane season, those watch advisories will be posted 48 hours in advance of storm or hurricane conditions.
Also, tropical storm and hurricane warnings will now be issued no earlier than 36 hours prior to storm or hurricane conditions. Previously, the requirement was for 24 hours notice.
This will be of benefit particularly for government agencies who, by most laws, cannot act as necessary until watches or warnings are issued. I don’t think it will affect civilians as much because of simple human nature; they won’t react until they feel absolutely necessary. Allowing additional time for advisories to be issued won’t make much of a difference.
This could also hurt traditional forecast lead times as well. The NHC always mentions lead times in storm preliminary reports as a way of measuring the success of a forecast by when conditions were felt in relation to when advisories were posted. The longer the forecast period, the greater the inaccuracy. And it’s easy to see occasions where a storm system may make landfall outside of the inital danger regions.
For instance, consider Hurricane Humberto, 2007. The system quickly ramped up to a category one hurricane within 16 hours before making landfall. Though tropical storm warnings were issued immediately on the first advisory, a hurricane warning wasn’t issued until two hours prior to landfall. By that account alone, the warning system failed completely.
This is by no means attacking the new policy or the NHC or anything like that. But, it must be realized that people in the path of storms know they are in the path (ever try to watch any news station when a hurricane is 1,000 miles away and not see even a mention of it???). They know a storm is out there.
Instead, focus should be made on such issues as mandatory evacuations or lawful imprisonment (such as took place in Texas last year) for failure to evacuate. Hard lines will need to be taken to save lives. Not prolonged watches and warnings.
Take what you can get, I suppose.
QuikSCAT is no longer in operation, according to NASA. The satellite’s scatterometer antenna stopped spinning. If the antenna cannot be restarted it will no longer be capable of taking sea surface measurements as it had been in the past.
I wrote back in early October of the debate inside the weather community on the significance of QuikSCAT and a replacement and how the debate was causing significant delay in building a replacement.
Well, those same people that helped cause the delays in some sense are continuing to preach the urgency of a replacement.
You have no one to blame but yourselves.
It’s unclear the true effects the loss of QuikSCAT will have on tropical cyclone forecasting. But, one thing is sure: you can never have too many weapons in your arsenal.
NASA will continue to try and restart the antenna using various techniques. Considering the satellite was only supposed to last a few years but has been operational for 10, I suppose we should be thankful we got out of it what we could.
QuikSCAT, the satellite which measures wind speeds and direction, among other things, is dying according to many in the weather and space industry.
The satellite, which was built in then-record time of 12 months, was only supposed to last a few years at most, has been in operation now since June, 1999.
QuikSCAT is the only United States operated satellite that measures surface winds over open ocean.
Among numerous issues, QuikSCAT is suffering from worn bearings due to friction which slows the measuring antenna causing potentially faulty weather data.
Debate, however, seems to be focused more on the replacement instrument for QuikSCAT. Some wish to update the satellite with a more long-term, but equally productive satellite. Others feel the costs necessary are not supportive of another QuickSCAT (II) and feel the satellite should be capable of more detailed and varied operations.
This debate is the failure to have QuikSCAT’s successor built.
In addition, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) have been on record as stating the loss of QuikSCAT would not significantly affect the quality of weather forecasts, in particular, of hurricanes.
Representatives Ron Klein (FL) and Charlie Melancon (LA) have introduced the Hurricane Satellite Modernization Act which would effectively secure $3 billion USD for the launch and operation of next-generation weather satellites. This financing would covers the years 2010 to 2027. Many are arguing the financials are too much for such a long period of time.
The Bill would also authorize QuikSCAT’s replacement, XOVMM (Extended Ocean Vector Winds Mission).
The House Committee on Science and Technology is currently reviewing the Bill.
In May, 2007, former National Hurricane Center Director Bill Proenza claimed that QuikSCAT was failing and such failure would reduce the accuracy of hurricane forecasts by as much as 16%. However, those statements would come under fire. One of those who lambasted Dr. Proenza’s statements were Dr. Jeff Masters of Weather Underground. Dr. Masters is quoted as saying that the loss of the satellite would only have a minor effect.
Now, however, Dr. Masters has made it a mission of trying to replace QuikSCAT. Writing in March, 2009 and, most recently, Saturday, Dr. Masters is trying to make the case to replace QuikSCAT urgently, as he states at the very earliest such a replacement would come would be 2015. He is asking readers to contact their local Senators to vote down the Commerce State Justice Appropriations Act scheduled for vote tomorrow. The Act would reduce NOAA’s budget by $172 million USD to fund another criminal program.
I’m a bit confused:
- QuikSCAT was discredited as an efficient, cost-worthy satellite for hurricane and weather forecasting two years ago.
- Now, an effort is being made to replace QuikSCAT and replace the satellite immediately as soon as possible.
- No one in the weather industry can agree on QuikSCAT’s importance and, seemingly, some are flip-flopping over just how important.
How in the hell can you ask a Senator to vote for or against any type of Act when those who would benefit from the Act can’t even make up their own damn minds?
Do you think we should spend $3 billion towards a new generation of weather satellites? Should NOAA’s budget should be cut in the middle of an active cycle of hurricane acivity?
Why am I not talking about Nora? I’m going on strike against the NHC and against all tropical storms that start with the letter “N”.
Ok, I’m kidding.
I haven’t been watching Nora for a number of reasons. The fact it is not impressive and no threat to land would lead the list. But, that doesn’t mean I’m not working on the site. Two things just to let you know I’m still here and still working:
As many of you are aware the site has been going through some serious issues with the server – traffic loads at times have been tremendous and while some issues have been due to the host, some have been due to me not optimizing the site. So, I’ve been making some changes in the background to streamline a few things and it’s already starting to pay off. Phew! Things finally seem to be running smoothly so we’ll see how that goes.
I’ve also been putting time in for an article I was hoping to publish today but it will likely be tomorrow morning. A teaser: a list of the oddest hurricanes you may have never heard. And I’m not talking about storms like Hurricane Gordon, either. I’m talking about systems that defied odds and, to this day, some remain a mystery; tropical cyclones worldwide that did what most tropical cyclones have never done. I learned a lot writing this piece and every time I think it’s finished I find or learn something else and have to do a small rewrite. I think you guys will really enjoy the article (now the pressure’s on deliver a superb article. But, I’m up for the task!). Again, look for that sometime Friday.
In an exclusive interview, I spoke with James Franklin, well-respected Branch Chief of the Hurricane Specialist Division of the National Hurricane Center, and Dr. Max Mayfield, former Director of the National Hurricane Center via email today. As some of you know I was somewhat critical (among many others, apprently) that the system that moved inland New Jersey last Friday should have been classified at least as a subtropical tropical system. Mr. Franklin’s response was as follows:
“Tropical and subtropical cyclones, by definition, must be non-frontal in nature (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml). We considered the system near the Delmarva and New Jersey to be something of a frontal hybrid, in that it appeared to have certain characteristics of tropical cyclones, such as enough organized convection to supply energy to the system, but in our view it never became completely separated from its frontal structures. Consequently, we did not initiate advisories.”
James Franklin, Branch Chief of the Hurricane Specialist Unit, National Hurricane Center
The website he links to is, of course, the NHC’s glossary page which states the following about a subtropical cyclone:
A non-frontal low pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones. This system is typically an upper-level cold low with circulation extending to the surface layer and maximum sustained winds generally occurring at a radius of about 100 miles or more from the center. In comparison to tropical cyclones, such systems have a relatively broad zone of maximum winds that is located farther from the center, and typically have a less symmetric wind field and distribution of convection.
It is somewhat interesting to note that even the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center which is responsible for such systems declared it a frontal system that morning to my knowledge. Friday morning was the first I had seen the low actually listed as having a frontal structure to it.
Dr. Mayfield, who runs his own hurricane blog, added the following:
“I do know that the NHC coordinates with the potentially impacted local NWS offices and I’m sure that occurred last week.”
Dr. Max Mayfield, former National Hurricane Center Directory
I can see their point. I’m still curious as to why it wasn’t classified before it picked up frontal characteristics (remember this thing sat over the Gulf stream for a couple of days transitioning from an extratropical low pressure system). But, what’s done is done. As Dr. Mayfield said, the NHC most likely coordinated with the NWS offices in the area so it wasn’t a complete surprise.
So, does this satisfy you? What do you feel would be the benefits of the NHC naming the system (besides season numbers)?
Carver High School in New Orleans, Louisiana, which once held over 1,000 students prior to Hurricane Katrina, has been given a shot in the arm that the community is hoping will be the start of good things to come. The school now teaches 530 students in FEMA trailers. The cafeteria and gymnasium are everyday reminders of what happened four years ago. But, as football season ramps up, everyone in the area is getting excited. Not because of the team, which lost all of their games last year. Rather, for a last-minute deal that will see the school have a new stadium next year.
Continue reading…
A research study published today shows many New Orleans businesses are citing fear of crime, lack of protective infrastructure, and lack of proper planning for another Katrina-like hurricane as reasons for not reopening. Among the serious issues of businesses is how can newly revised flood maps be identical to those prior to Katrina and the various levels of government continue to encourage rebuilding without any real assistance.
Continue reading…
You can count on it happening every time. If lottery numbers were as frequent, there’d never be multi-million dollar jackpots. When a hurricane approaches, the seekers come out. They want to see the crashing waves. Surfers want to ride the whitecaps. People want to feel that fast breeze whipping against their bodies, pelting sand into their skin. They want to taste the ocean water spray. Even I’ve been guilty of thrill-seeking – no, that is not me in the video; behind the scenes). It, apparently, is in our nature. This past Sunday, that nature – curiousity – cost a 7-year-old girl her life. Clio Axelrod is dead. A name added to thousands of those who died staring in amazement at the fury of hurricanes. Continue reading…
