Op-Ed

I recently read a personal attack against another over being bored with the hurricane season.  The attack went something along the lines of:

You find it boring that people aren’t dying in storms?  You find it boring that people aren’t losing their properties and loved ones in these storms?  You like seeing F4 (tornadoes) rip people’s lives apart?  You’re obviously immature.  Go back to your momma’s…

You get the point.

This attack wasn’t directed against me.  But, me being stubborn and very agressive when I probably don’t need to be took it as a personal attack and responded.

Some of you who come to this website seek information.  You’re not really interested in tracking storms.  You just want the latest news.

In other words, you’re not me.

But, I’m not alone on this website (thought I feel like it sometimes).  I know many of you are just like me.  You lurk.  You pay attention.  And, perhaps, you, like me, keep quiet because you don’t want anyone to know you are a hurricane enthusiast.

There’s nothing for which to be ashamed.

We love hurricanes.  We love tornadoes.  We love blizzards.  You name it – if its severe weather, we love it.

We don’t love the loss of life.  We don’t love the loss of property.  We don’t enjoy seeing families crying when nature smacks them in the face.

In all honesty, we’re one of the first there to help.

It’s a fascination with the unimaginable – we want to imagine.  We would be perfectly content with watching the strongest hurricane in recorded history tracking across the open waters.  We just want to be able to say we tracked it, we saw it, we enjoyed it.

I know several who tracked Katrina, lived through Katrina, and survived other hurricanes including myself.  Never have I talked to anyone who spoke of the thrills of a storm while watching a family mourn.

It’s not a disrespect to victims.  It’s a respect to nature.  It’s a part of life that, just like any other, if you can’t beat it you might as well accept it.

It’s ok, hurricane lovers.  We’re all good people.

This concludes your daily group therapy.

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Earlier today, in one of the weather forums I frequent, someone posted a link to an article, titled “No debate: Deluge due to climate change”, that read the following:

More rain fell on Manila and surrounding regions in nine hours on Saturday than the amount Hurricane “Katrina” dumped on New Orleans in 2005.

The article was meant to enforce a serious issue of climate change; it astounded me.  At least, as far I read which was until the paragraph quoted above.

I’ve stayed away from this topic for one reason: it’s heated.  It’s complicated.  Everyone thinks they have the answer.  And, it seems, no one wants to hear the other side of the story.  It’s their way or the wrong way.

And, I’m tired of it.  I’m tired of seeing hurricane activity used as examples to this global warming debate argument.

I’ll tell you why you may never know the truth about global warming.

Continue reading…

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With both the Atlantic and East Pacific hurricane season taking a nap I wanted to take this time to write a little about myself and why I’ve kept dealing with this website. This site has been a pain in my butt.  Not because of the updating or writing the content or looking at the storms; that part’s fun.  But, because what I wanted to do was beyond my resources.  I don’t have the investment funds of an Accuweather or a Weather Channel or Weather Underground.  Some things were easy.  Some things took a lot of time.  And between a full-time job, being a parent, and trying to get my programming career going things always came up.

The first hurricane I saw was Gilbert in 1988.  I didn’t know anything about hurricanes at the time and probably had never even heard the term up until that point.  I was at my step-grandmother’s home, laying on the floor, watching (don’t ask why) The Weather Channel.  Back then, John Hope was the face of the Tropical Update.  At this time was when Gilbert had what was then the lowest pressure ever recorded in the Atlantic – 888mb (Wilma would beat that by a few millibars in 2005).  John stood in front of the satellite image of this monster storm half the size of the Carribbean Sea with this pinpoint eye right in the middle of the hurricane.  I just remembered thinking, “Damn, that thing is huge”.  And, of course, later I saw the devastation it brought to Cancun and Yucatan.  It was incredible for my 11-year-old eyes.

Hurricane Gilbert - Sep, 1988

Unfortunately, for whatever reason while the spark was smoking it wasn’t lit.  I saw Hugo’s effects when it hit hand in 1989 but knew nothing about it.  Same thing with Bob in 1991.

It wasn’t until Hurricane Andrew in 1992 that the spark finally took off.  That summer I had gotten into the habit of staying up overnight.  This came in handy when the Barcelona Olympics took the stage and I would watch whatever competitive events they showed.  But, after the Olympics, I had nothing to watch except this all-night-running ABC news show hosted by Aaron Brown – the same one that went to work for CNN and, now, PBS.

I remembered when the talk began of a tropical storm in the Atlantic.  And, would you look at that! I also had a handy-dandy folding tracking chart courtesy of one of the Norfolk, Virginia television stations.  I think I’ll track Andrew.

I was up both the nights of August 24 and August 26 when Andrew hit south Florida and then Louisiana.  As with most of the nation I was absolutely amazed at the ferocity of the storm and the damage it left behind.  My first vivid memories, in fact, of hurricane damage, is seeing the rows of homes in Homestead, Florida just absolutely demolished.  My favorite aftermath image that I would find years later was that of a 2×4 block of wood piercing a palm tree.

2x4 piercing a palm tree in south Florida after Hurricane Andrew

After Andrew hit Louisiana, the system broke up into two pieces.  One of which traveled over my home in Hampton, Virginia.  I remember that day walking down to the street corner and staring up into the blanket of thick gray clouds overhead.  It’s that image that sticks in my mind to this day; those clouds, me getting rained on, and the street sign in the corner of my eye: Andrews Blvd.

I was hooked.

I’ve tracked nearly every hurricane and tropical storm since.  I’ve been on the fringes of some (Emily, Bret, Fran, Bertha, Humberto) and directly in others, lastly Ike.  I’ve seen many tropical storms.  I remember standing on Grandview beach in Hampton along the Chesapeake Bay as Tropical Storm Danielle passed by.  That was my first feeling of what it was like to be in a storm: sand blasting against your face, saltwater burning your eyes, the wind whipping your shirt tight against your body.

Did I say I was hooked?

Some of you are aware Personal Hurricane Center actually started as a desktop application back in 2004.  It was the first and only year of that.  My son was just born and after clowning around my life up to that point, it was time to get serious.  I bought a new laptop with the tax credit I received (a crappy Compaq that had to be on an expansion base after the first three months with warranty).  Somehow or another I had gotten my hands on Microsoft’s Visual Basic to learn programming.  “This is it, I’ll learn programming and get my career going that way,” I said to myself.  But, I didnt’ have time to go back to college so I did what I love to do best, anyway: taught myself.  What’s the best way to teach yourself:   with something you enjoy doing.

In a couple of months time I had gotten the desktop application running pretty good.  It had satellite imagery, radar, got the observations (I remember waking up many a night at 3:30 in the morning to “assist” the program with getting the latest advisory info and what-not).  It even had buoy and surface observations.  Though I had tons of downloads, sales did not convert.  I was ok with that.  But, the funny thing was: I didn’t even use the program!

And that’s how I judge this website.  After that season I started looking into turning the desktop program into an internet application.  Today’s technology easily allows it.  But, there are differences which I’ve learned over the years.  I know that since 2004 this website has had ups and down.  Did you see the site in 2004???

Personal Hurricane Center circa August, 2004

All of that courtesy of Microsoft Publisher which if any of you use (and Word, for that matter!) to build a website please stop!  I like the line at the bottom of the page:

As you can see, Personal Hurricane Center.com has undergone a cleanup.

Don’t ask!

By the way, if you want to continue that trip down memory lane just visit the Internet Archives.

Earlier this month I came to what some would consider the crossroads.  My programming was going ok, but not satisfying what I wanted most:  a comfortable job (at least I was working, right?).  But, I kept struggling even with my own personal blog.  I didn’t have the passion for it.  And, I’ll admit, I’ve lost passion for this site at times, too.  That’s why there have been so many inconsistencies.  I know I have plenty of great ideas.  My problem tends to be often I get distracted.

But, I’ve made a promise to myself that this will not happen again.  I said bye to my blog’s audience yesterday morning.  And, though I’ll post there every now and then I’ve set my mind to this site for good.  This site is my priority.  I don’t care if there’s a storm brewing in the Atlantic or East Pacific or if it’s completely quiet like this morning.  I’ll find something to write about.  After all, what have I done all these years watching and studying hurricanes?

My hope is that this will be a place everyone can come for their information.  I write my own observations and what I think a storm will do.  And I hope that helps you.  When I’m not updating this site I’ll continue to update Wikipedia when I can and feel it needs to be done.  But, this is where my focus lies from now on.  If my word means anything to you, then take my word for it that come next season the tools that will be available on this website will amaze you.  You’ll never go anywhere else.  And as I had said when I built the desktop application, if I can build this website to where even I want to use it I know everyone will want to.  No one expects more from a hurricane resource than me.  Thus, we have Personal Hurricane Center.com

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Take a drive down Interstate 10 between Houston, Texas and New Orleans, Louisiana. You can see the signs everywhere. Mostly it’s tress snapped in half. They point every direction. In some places there are homes that still have blue roofs – tarps that protect the interior from the sometimes-nasty elements. Some places have homes or businesses damaged and still rebuilding. Others simply are not trying. They’re exhausted. Eight hurricanes and five tropical storms in the past five seasons – six hurricanes in the last three seasons including Hurricane Katrina, Hurricane Rita, Hurricane Gustav and Hurricane Gustav – will do that to you. Houston and New Orleans have seen some of the worst in Ike and Katrina, respectively. But that doesn’t exclude the smaller communities like Galveston, Lake Charles, Morgan City or Baton Rouge. Not to mention Sidell. All of them have had their share. And they would love a break. A personal tragedy took me down this six-hour trip in February that concluded in New Orleans, Louisiana. It was the first time I’ve made this trip. It won’t be the last. Continue reading…

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This is the question that John Lott proposes. John Lott has written an editorial hosted at Fox News.com in regards to the seeming inaccuracy of the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center. He praises private weather companies, most notably Accuweather, who sponsors FoxNews Weather as well as makes frequent appearances on the various shows including Hannity and Colmes and The O’Reilly Factor.

The article essentially suggests that The People of The United States would be better served by the private weather industry than the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center. Among such reasoning is:

• In looking at predicting snow fall from December 2006 through February 2007, the National Weather Service’s average error was 24 percent greater.“All private forecasting companies did much better than the National Weather Service,” the [Forecast Watch] report concludes.
• The government doesn’t do any better with forecasting temperature. For the largest 50 cities in the U.S. over the last year, ForecastAdvisor.com ranks the National Weather Service’s overall predictions for high and low temperatures as well as precipitation as dead last among the six weather forecasting services they examined.
• With all the blame still going around about Hurricane Katrina’s devastation, one fact has missed getting much attention: private weather forecasting companies predicted the threat to New Orleans well before the National Weather Service. In fact, AccuWeather issued a forecast that the hurricane would hit New Orleans 12 hours earlier than the government service.

There are several interesting points that can be made here. One does need to question the desire of Mr. Lott to bash the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center. Considering Accuweather is on the face of FoxNews weather reports, and the report released by ForecastWatch.com praises such private weather companies such as Accuweather, it does raise an eyebrow. But, I’ll get to that in a moment. There are other, more pressing points to make.

The service has been accused in the past of withholding government aircraft reconnaissance of hurricanes for up to 11 hours before releasing the information to private companies or the public.

I know for a fact this, at least used to be, a common complaint of Accuweather’s Chief Hurricane Forecaster Joe Bastardi. Quite frequently during his Long Range Forecast videos with fellow forecast Ken Reeves, Joe would make this claim. Though no one will argue there are occasions when reconnaissance information does not come through as fast as expected, there can be no connection offered between the severity of the reports, which would be the only necessary reason for the National Hurricane Center to withhold said reports.

A more serious problem is that the National Weather Service gives away its services for free. In 2004, the National Weather Service began shelving a 1991 policy that had barred the weather agency from offering services that private industry could provide. The Weather Service also now offers much of its data on the internet for free.

Rick Santorum, former Senator for Pennsylvania, proposed the National Weather Service Duties Act of 2005. The Bill, while unclear in it’s exact definition, would prohibit the National Weather Service from competing with the private weather sector. Essentially, only in cases of emergency would the National Weather Service be allowed to release information to the public. After Hurricane Katrina in 2005, Santorum told radio reporters that Congress should open an investigation into the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center for it’s seeming inadequate hurricane warnings.

“The expectation was that [the hurricane] was not going to hit Florida with much fury, and it ended up being a Category 1 hurricane and did a lot more damage than I think was ever anticipated.”

Mind you that the very first advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center forecasted Katrina, then Tropical Depression 12, to make landfall in south Florida north of Miami as a 70mph tropical storm. Katrina eventually struck Florida, where forecasted to by the National Hurricane Center 48 hours earlier as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. By any standard, that is a damn good forecast especially for a developing cyclone.

The National Hurricane Center’s first forecast of what would become Hurricane Katrina took the then depression into south Florida as a borderline tropical storm/hurricane. Courtesy of NHC

The National Hurricane Center’s next pivotal forecast was when they took then Hurricane Katrina into southeast Louisiana, just east of New Orleans as a 130 mph strong Category 3 hurricane. A hurricane watch was issued for the coast at 10AM CDT the next Saturday. Twelve hours later, that watch was upgraded to a warning. Hurricane Katrina made landfall around 5AM CDT Monday morning with winds of 125 mph. The National Hurricane Center took a recurving hurricane and made a damn good accurate forecast 60 hours earlier and 5 mph off on the intensity. Yet, according to Mr. Santorum, the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center’s forecasting adequacy needed to be questioned. This, of course, got no support and therefore was never tested.

So why is this relevant to Accuweather? First, Joe Bastardi said repeatedly prior to Hurricane Katrina making landfall in New Orleans that it would not be as bad as the media made it sound. His theory was that in order for a hurricane to cause maximum damage to southeast Louisiana, it would have to come almost directly from the east or east-southeast as that would put the strongest quadrant of the hurricane, the northeast quadrant, directly into Lake Ponchartrain. I do not have a link to any of those videos, so that you must take with whatever credit you give me.

Second, and this is fact, Accuweather is headquartered in State College, Pennsylvania. Joel Myers, who founded and presides over Accuweather.com was a Santorum campaign contributor. Santorum’s Bill, according to him, was to make the best of a free market. Yet, the question many had already proposed: If we already pay for the information in our tax dollars, why must we pay for it again? Mr. Lott should get his facts straight on what the National Weather Service was attempting to do in 2004.

A new study by Forecast Watch, a company that keeps track of past forecasts, found that from Oct. 1, 2006, through June 30, 2007, the government’s National Weather Service did very poorly in predicting the probability of rain or snow. Comparing the National Weather Service to The Weather Channel, CustomWeather, and DTN Meteorlogix, Forecast Watch found that the government’s next-day forecast had a 21 percent greater error rate between predicted probability of precipitation and the rate that precipitation actually occurred.

One, Forecast Watch does NOT keep track of past forecasts. Forecast Watch is a private weather organization. Forecast Watch makes its money by selling enhanced weather information to private weather businesses. Care to know who Forecast Watch proudly advertises as two of its biggest clients? “Accuweather and CustomWeather are satisfied clients”, Forecast Watch proudly states on its website.

To back up his article, Mr. Lott uses another source, ForecastAdvisor.com

The government doesn’t do any better with forecasting temperature. For the largest 50 cities in the U.S. over the last year, ForecastAdvisor.com ranks the National Weather Service’s overall predictions for high and low temperatures as well as precipitation as dead last among the six weather forecasting services they examined.

ForecastAdvisor is only offered as a source once. And seemingly it’s data would back up that of ForecastWatch. And one would think that they would. After all, both ForecastAdvisor and ForecastWatch are owned by Intellovations, LLC based in Ohio.

ForecastWatch and ForecastAdvisor are both sources owned by the same company, Intellovations, LLC

What Mr. Lott fails to note is that these private weather industries all get their information from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center. If we get rid of the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center, where will our data come from? Perhaps the private weather businesses would like to build their own radars and pay NASA…I’m sorry, that new PRIVATE space company in California to launch private weather satellites. But, that would cost billions of dollars. No, what the private weather industries seem to want is for the National Weather Service to stop forecasting all together, but still give them the weather data privately so they can turn and sell it to you.

Sorry Mr. Lott. Sorry Fox News. Sorry Accuweather and Custom Weather (who are you, anyway?). But I paid for my weather information back in April. I don’t intend on doing it again.

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